UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Sacramento - Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
The UFC heads to California for a 13-fight card that contains a good mix of viable underdogs and favorites liable to crush. We'll break down each bout across three platforms, with picks including a scrappy wrestler who will try to stand up to an unrelenting force, and a middleweight looking to announce his presence as a contender. Our picks this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Jamall Emmers ($6,900)
Lerryan Douglas made quick and brutal work of Julian Erosa in his UFC debut, but he remains a stationary striker who will throw one shot at a time before finding a finish. It must be noted that Emmers has always had an issue with keeping his chin in the air, making another quick knockout a real possibility. However, Emmers is fast, will throw in combinations, and can use his wrestling to mix things up. There is no doubt that Douglas is a knockout machine; I just hesitate to put a premium on someone whose game is still incredibly rough around the edges.
Jackson McVey ($8,700)
I will likely only pick McVey to win when I think his physicality will be enough to take a fight over, and that is precisely what I expect against Wes Schultz. While they are both tricky grapplers, Shultz struggled to hold position before finally submitting Ben Johnston, and McVey excels at smothering opponents on the ground and against the fence. He may have enough skill to avoid being submitted, but I don't see how Schultz deals with what is likely a significant strength disadvantage.
Stan Dorsainvil ($7,900)
I quite liked what I saw on tape from Dorsainvil; a rangy, fast pressure fighter who throws crisp combos and can wrestle for good measure. Gauge Young, is a skilled, powerful fighter, but his lack of footwork tends to get him into trouble during exchanges, and he will need to overcome a six-inch reach deficit here. Unless Young can hurt him early, I predict that Dorsainvil will have this fight on his terms.
Shamil Gaziev ($8,400)
Gaziev's durability has become a concern after back-to-back knockout losses, but I still favor his aggressiveness against Kennedy Nzechukwu, who always tends to let his opponents dictate where exchanges happen. If Gaziev can navigate range, he should be able to push his opponent up against the fence and make this fight ugly, which could result in a sneakily high point total.
Roman Dolidze ($7,000)
I find it incredibly hard to trust Reinier de Ridder as a big favorite. The Dutch fighter is riding a two-fight losing streak, during which he hasn't gotten much done offensively. While the move up to light heavyweight could solve his issues with weight cutting in theory, it was at 205 pounds that "RDR" first had his body shut down, during a rematch with Anatoly Malykhin in One Championship. While not a perfect fighter, Dolidze will come forward throwing power for as long as the fight lasts and should be able to compete with De Ridder on the ground.
Mason Jones ($9,000)
Jones brings a nice combination of toughness, power striking, and grappling to the cage. Marquel Mederos thrives when he can keep a fight clean and showcase his boxing, but Jones will give him even less room than Chris Padilla as he marches the 29-year-old down looking for big shots. Mederos will have his moments when he can keep range, but I don't expect that to happen consistently.
Vitor Petrino ($8,500)
Serghei Spivac has shown glimpses of turning a corner with his boxing of late, but I still can't pick him to best a stronger, faster, more powerful opponent. As we have seen him knocked out by heavy hitters before, it seems likely that Spivac will try to get the fight to the floor at all costs here, and Petrino boasts a takedown defense rate of 79 percent.
Anthony Wint ($9,900)
A former linebacker with the New York Jets, Wint marries athleticism and power in a way few heavyweights do. It has only been a week since a quick knockout earned Wint a contract on the Contender Series, in which he stuffed a takedown before pounding out his opponent. Terrance Chatman won't be able to match Wint for physicality or quickness, but he does have a knack for slowing fights down, which could make things interesting if he is able to withstand an initial onslaught.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Carli Judice UNDER 84.5 Significant Strikes, Nasrat Haqparast OVER 69.5 Significant Strikes, and Marcio Barbosa UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes
Volume striking is a hallmark of Judice's style, but we have seen her willing to sit down on strikes a bit more in fights with Yuneisy Duben and Nicolle Caliari. Jeisla Chaves is a grappler by trade, and she has even more motivation to close the distance with Judice as her opponent. Between Judice's power punching and Chaves' desire to close the distance, 84 significant strikes seems like far too many to comfortably bet on.
Haqparast and Chris Padilla should complement each other well in this matchup, as two boxers who like to throw volume will stand at range for the majority of a 15-minute fight. While both have been finished before, these losses have mainly come against hellacious punchers or submission artists. This should mean a high-paced kickboxing match that well-exceeds our total here.
Newcomer Ryan Kuse uses his striking as a means to get to his grappling, while Barbosa uses his striking to end fights as quickly as possible. This kind of dynamic lends itself to low totals, as either a knockout tends to materialize, or the BJJ fighter controls their opponent on the ground.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Shanelle Dyer Wins via KO/TKO (+130)
We don't have nearly as much meat on the bone here as we did when Dyer knocked out Ravena Oliveira in her UFC debut, but she'll have so many advantages over Elise Reed that I believe we are fortunate to find ourselves with any juice at all. I expect Dyer to stalk Reed here, who will be stuck at the end of range and forced to shoot bad takedowns. This will allow "The Nightmare" to pick up her second stoppage victory in as many fights.
Gregory Rodrigues wins Via KO/TKO (+275)
As dominant as Anthony Hernandez looks when he gets his game going, fights with fighters from Sean Strickland to Brendan Allen have shown us that he is vulnerable until the point that he has the fight in his control. Rodrigues is incredibly powerful and a wizard on the ground, which should help neutralize "Fluffy's" wrestling attack. A three-inch height advantage for "Robocop" will make it hard for Hernandez to close the distance, and there is an incredible amount of danger waiting at the end of that range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Sacramento. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
