UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Shanghai - Nurmagomedov vs. Song
The UFC heads to Shanghai, where those stateside will be treated to a 13-fight card beginning before the crack of dawn. Our Picks this week include a Brazilian looking to stop the swarm of a wrestler, and a former Rizin champion who has a chance to plant his flag in the UFC. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ding Meng ($8,300)
Meng had to negotiate a six-inch reach disadvantage and was still competitive in his debut loss to Jose Henrique Souza. Dimensions will be much more favorable against newcomer Cameron Nelson, a BJJ fighter who swings big and wild in the pocket. I expect Meng to keep range and outscore Nelson over three rounds, while potentially throwing in some of his own wrestling for good measure.
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,500)
Yadong Song can look impressive when he has the space to land his offense, but he waits entirely too long at range, and Umar will not give him room to show off his boxing. Nurmagomedov should close distance quickly here, racking up takedowns over the 25-minute fight.
Yan Xiaonan ($8,500)
The grappling improvements have been evident in Xiaonan in recent years, as she took down champion Zhang Weili three times during their fight in 2024, and even scored a reversal against BJJ wizard Virna Jandiroba last April. This, combined with her pinpoint boxing, should be more than enough against Denise Gomes, who is slow-footed by comparison and boasts a takedown accuracy rate of just 34 percent.
Jingnan Xiong ($7,300)
Jingnan's loss to Angela Hill in her organizational debut was a good reminder that brute force and aggression alone won't always get things done at the highest level. While she is certainly rough around the edges, Jingnan gets a more forgiving matchup in Julia Polastri, who will plant her feet and wait like a coiled spring, looking for counter strikes. Jingnan had trouble with the footwork of Hill, but this looks like an opponent who will stay in the pocket and give her the fight she wants.
Hector Santiago ($7,100)
It needs to be noted that Lawrence Lui is a wrestling and cardio machine, so he is likely to put up big points in whatever fight he wins. The reason for my shot on a relatively unproven fighter here is that Liu seems frantic in the cage, diving for low-percentage takedowns early in fights. I also question his ability to hold opponents down, as he did not eclipse six minutes of control time despite seven takedowns against Sulang Rangbo. To be clear, Liu has the style and salary to be on the optimal lineup, but Santiago could be a sneaky play in GPP formats.
Long Xiao ($8,600)
Xiao lost in one of the worst ways imaginable against Cody Garbrandt, as he was deducted two points for fouls, and still arguably should have been awarded the decision by the judges. Against Francesco Nuzzi, Long will face an agile kickboxer who does not take his head off the centerline. This will leave him open to the straight shots of the Chinese fighter, while his upright stance should present wrestling opportunities.
Rei Tsuruya ($9,700)
I have always had a fondness for Kevin Borjas, but he tends to back himself against the cage and rely on his footwork, which is bad news against a fighter like Tsuruya. Borjas fought well to turn back prospect Andre Lima in June, but his lack of knockout power means he will be under constant pressure from the Japanese fighter, which I do not expect him to stand up to.
Levi Rodrigues ($7,500)
Liu Ce needs to be respected as a former kickboxing champion, but it's hard to watch him get overwhelmed and knocked out by the simple pressure of a regional fighter in 2024 and pick him as a significant favorite. While a lot can happen in two years, Ce has only had one fight since then, and I cannot back him against a powerful light heavyweight who will pressure and look for takedowns.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on Underdog - Significant Strikes
Bilal Hasan UNDER 46.5 Significant Strikes, Su Mudaerji OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, and Namsrai Batbayar OVER 32.5 Significant Strikes
This feels like too many strikes to give Hasan by a wide margin, as the 25-year-old has only been outside the first round once in his last eight fights. Nilson Rojas is a come-forward fighter who won't back down from a firefight, making it likely that this one ends early.
We seemed to be headed towards covering this total in the first fight between Mudaerji and Alex Perez before the Chinese fighter hit his opponent low, causing the fight to be called a no-contest. Mudaerji has the speed, length, and pinpoint striking to frustrate Perez over three rounds, and while he did score a knockdown in the first fight, "The Tibetan Eagle" hasn't had a knockout since a first-round victory against Malcolm Gordon in 2020.
Batbayar will likely try to wrestle early, but the aforementioned Lima has shown a strong base early in his career, notching a 75 percent takedown defense rate. This will eventually force Batbyar to strike as he feels the pressure from Lima, who simply works too slowly to be regarded as a consistent knockout threat at this level.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like Underdog? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Sean Woodson Wins via KO/TKO (+475)
There are two main components to this play. The first is that we have never seen anyone beat Woodson by outwrestling him for 15 minutes, which Jack Jenkins will set out to do here. The second is that "Phar" will need to compensate for a 10-inch reach disadvantage. We have seen Jenkins get stung while trying to close distance before, and he will tempt fate every time he tries to enter range.
Kai Asakura Wins in Round 1 (+200)
Asakura profiles as a one-round fighter, as we have seen him look dangerous in the first frame before taking losses to fighters like Tim Elliott. Against Aori Qileng, Asakura finally gets an opponent who will stand in the pocket with him, and the former Rizin bantamweight champion is far too fast and powerful to be trifled with early.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Shanghai. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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