UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 120 - Gamrot vs. Salkilld
The UFC returns to the Apex for a 12-fight card filled with intriguing matchups. We will break down each bout across three platforms, with picks including a grappler looking to halt a hype train, and a war horse intent to do damage one last time. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Juliana Miller ($8,900)
Ravena Oliveira has never done well with pressure fighters, and Miller will want to do nothing more than bring the fight to the ground. Expect "Killer" to keep her foot on the gas against her Brazilian counterpart, who backs herself up to the cage as a matter of habit.
Carlos Diego Ferreira ($8,700)
Billy Quarantillo is a fighter who no longer looks durable enough to carry his style of unchecked aggression and pace. Ferreira hits incredibly hard and will be the far superior grappler here, which makes me wonder how "Billy Q" will generate offense without putting himself in a compromised position.
Mateusz Gamrot (7,900)
All of Quillan Salkilld's wins thus far in the UFC have come as the bigger man who can outgrapple his opponents. While he will maintain height and reach advantages over Gamrot, this will be the first matchup in which he is not dictating terms. Gamrot will pressure Salkild with grappling exchanges from the opening bell, and I can't trust him to have a clean performance against a fighter who will keep him on his heels for 25 minutes.
Louie Sutherland ($8,500)
Sutherland doesn't project as much more than a borderline Top 20 heavyweight, but his aggression and grappling ability should be enough to best Jose Luiz, a debutante who has never beaten a fighter with more than three wins. The Brazilian has gotten by with physicality to this point, but Sutherland is a mountain of a man, and while Diaz is a real submission threat, we have no idea how he will look against a veteran of the sport who won't go away at the first opportunity.
Darren Elkins ($6,600)
Yadier Del Valle hits hard and is probably a competent jiu-jitsu player. Beyond that, there isn't much we can say definitively about the Cuban fighter, who seemed clueless in the face of Jordan Leavitt's grappling and pressure after his victory over Isaac Dulgarian, which occurred under suspicious circumstances. Elkins's retirement fight probably should have come a bit sooner, as it's clear the damage he has accumulated is taking its toll, but a lanky veteran like Julian Erosa is a very different challenge than someone like Del Valle, and I can't outright recommend an essentially unproven fighter at such a hefty price.
Alexia Thainara ($8,800)
Amanda Lemos has always been a solid all-around fighter, but she is at her best when she can plant her feet and throw strikes. Thianara won't allow the UFC veteran the space to throw powerful attacks, as she is in a constant state of forward motion looking for takedowns. Lemos has yielded six takedowns in her last two fights, which doesn't give me much confidence that she can stay upright here.
Bruno Lopes ($7,800)
Diyar Nurgozhay is a solid kickboxer, but his need to keep the fight looking pretty will likely hurt him against Lopes, who will swing hard shots and try to force grappling exchanges. Nurgozhay has shown problems dealing with submission attempts in his UFC career, and the Brazilian counts five tapout victories among his 14 wins.
Miles Johns ($8,600)
Ironically, Johns' loss to Daniel Marcos was the best we have seen him look in some time. The typically timid Johns was moving forward, throwing in combination, and attempting to mix in his wrestling before being stopped by a superior submission grappler. Against Gianni Vazquez, these techniques should gain more purchase, as the short-notice replacement was taken down and controlled for 5:38 by Javid Basharat in February.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Manoel Sousa OVER 39.5 Significant Strikes, and Steven Asplund OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes
Sousa was a quick finisher on the regional scene, but we saw in his organizational debut against Bolaji Oki that throwing the same combination repeatedly won't be enough to put guys away at this level. Richie Miranda can keep distance with his jab and is responsible defensively, which likely means that Sousa will have another extended fight on his hands.
The toughness of Guilherme Pat was on full display in his loss to Thomas Petersen, as he withstood a third-round barrage to hear the final bell. Asplund is the rare heavyweight who likes to put volume on his opponents, making this line one to take a shot at.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Carol Foro Wins via KO/TKO/DQ (-105)
Foro is likely a bit too much of a bruiser to rise in the ranks without improvement, as she walks into range looking to throw big shots. This shouldn't be an issue against GiGi Canuto, who throws wild punches in the pocket as a means to find the clinch and grapple. Foro showed solid takedown defense against Shanelle Dyer, and she will be the stronger fighter here, which likely means bad things for Canuto once she is trapped against the fence.
Ty Miller Wins via KO/TKO/DQ (+110)
The long, powerful shots of Miller should wreak havoc on Billy Goff, who has absorbed five significant strikes per minute in four UFC fights. Like Quarantillo, Goff likes to throw himself into the firefight, gambling that he will come out on top, and that is simply not a safe bet when dealing with a fighter who hits as hard as Miller.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 120. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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