UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 121 - Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos
The UFC returns to the Apex for a 12-fight card that brings us plenty of opportunity for profit. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, with picks including a veteran looking to continue his resurgence and a grappler who hopes to make a splash in a battle of debutantes. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Yazmin Jauregui ($9,800)
The price is prohibitive, but there may be sneaky upside here, as Vanessa Demopoulos tends to crash into opponents looking for takedowns. This should allow Jauregui to find her counter shots and combination punching, while a strength advantage allows her to stay upright. Jauregui finished seven of her eight wins prior to being signed to the UFC, and she may have the right opponent to rekindle some of what we saw on the regional scene.
Raoni Barcelos ($7,500)
As the most well-rounded fighter Raul Rosas has faced in his career by a wide margin, I'm a bit surprised to see Barcelos as this much of an underdog. We know how suffocating Rosas can be in top position, but the Brazilian is a multiple-time wrestling and jiujitsu champion, which should have him well prepared for his opponent's primary modes of attack. If Barcelos can compete in grappling exchanges, he should win this fight going away, as he is an accomplished boxer, and Rosas still looks uncomfortable at range. There are concerns about the gas tank of Barcelos as a 39-year-old not accustomed to fighting five rounds, but I can't pass on this spot based on potential alone.
Montel Jackson ($8,500)
Ricky Simon's penchant for aggressively chasing takedowns may hurt him here, as Jackson will have a five-inch height advantage and can counterpunch with power. We have seen Simon's durability fade ever so slightly in fights with Adrian Yanez and the aforementioned Barcelos, and I can't trust him to stay safe for 15 minutes in this kind of matchup.
Elves Brener ($8,000)
Brenner's three-fight losing streak may explain the closeness of the line here, but the quality of competition faced by the Brazilian in that stretch is a world away from Josiah Harrell, who is a good athlete and crisp puncher, but lacks footwork and has a tendency to hang his chin in the air. Brenner has been nearly impossible to hurt in his UFC career, which should help him withstand an early charge from "Muscle Hamster."
Melissa Amaya ($7,300)
Valesca Machado (also known as Tina Black) has shown plenty of killer instinct in her career, but her quality of competition has been less than stellar, and the Brazilian hasn't fought in nearly two years, choosing to sit out while "waiting for an opportunity." Amaya likes to rush her opponents while looking for takedowns, and I wonder if all that time off will prevent Machado from adjusting to the speed of the fight. The Brazilian tends to stand heavy on her lead leg looking for boxing combinations, which should allow Amaya to find her takedown entries.
Ailin Perez ($8,300)
This looks like a good spot for Perez, who should be able to put Norma Dumont on the back foot and keep her there, as "The Immortal" favors a slow-paced kickboxing match. It was only last year that Dumont was controlled by Ketlen Vieira for more than five minutes, and Perez has always been a lockdown grappler.
Mehemmedeli Osmanli ($9,100)
Osmalani looks like a fun addition to bantamweight. He is tall for the division, can do a bit of everything in the cage, and uses his agility to snipe his opponents with power. By contrast, Ilimbek Akylbek is a boxer who likes to apply pressure, plant his feet, and throw big shots. Unless he gets careless, I like Osmanli to put on a show here, as I just see too many advantages in favor of "The Ineffable."
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
John Castaneda UNDER 72.5 Significant Strikes, and Robert Bryczek OVER 27.5 Significant Strikes
Castaneda and Heili Alateng are both action fighters, but this total feels high, particularly since neither shies away from grappling, and "Sexi Mexi" tends to let his opponents dictate the speed of his fights. This line has likely been pumped significantly by the war Castaneda had with Mark Vologdin in April, but few fighters throw caution to the wind like Vologdin, and I expect at least some feeling-out process here.
It seems strange to say you've lost confidence in the grappling of a jiu-jitsu champion, but that's where I'm at with Rodolfo Vieira, who hasn't had a submission win in over three years despite landing six takedowns over that span. The Brazilian got so tired scrambling with Eric McConico that it wouldn't surprise me to see him manage his energy here, which should allow us to clear this total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Luis Hernandez Wins via KO/TKO (+230)
Hernandez answers the call for his UFC debut 10 days after submitting his opponent on Dana White's Contender Series due to Mickey Gall being pulled from his bout with Sedriques Dumas. This is a much more comfortable spot than it would seem for the debutante at first glance, as Dumas has never dealt with pressure well, and "The Stache" has built his offense around aggression and power shots. We saw Hernandez get dropped after gassing out in Round 2 before finding his contract-winning submission, but I see no reason to think Dumas lasts that long.
Rodolfo Bellato Wins via KO/TKO (+265)
Christian Edwards tends to throw one strike at a time to try and set up an underdeveloped wrestling attack. Bellato's inability to move his head makes him vulnerable to big punches, but the Brazilian carries an exemplary 94 percent takedown defense rate and has far more depth to his striking. Anything can happen when big boys throw hands, but Edwards will be the one at a disadvantage whenever this fight is in space.
Rinya Nakamura Wins via Submission (+850)
Brady Hiestand's all-offense style has already seen him have to fend off submission attempts in the UFC, most recently a deep armbar in the first round of his bout with Garrett Armfield. Hiestand is supremely confident he will come out on top in any scramble, but I'm not sure that is a good bet against Nakamura, who will be the physically stronger man and will look for opportunistic submissions. The large price here stems from the fact that Nakamura has been far more interested in finishing fights with his fists, but Hiestand won't give the Japanese fighter much choice but to engage in grappling sequences.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 121. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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