Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Sacramento
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC Sacramento card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC 330 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 224-94-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Wint
Fanduel Captain: Wint/Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez (15-3-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (19-6-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-3 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Relentless pressure wrestler with outstanding cardio and a suffocating grappling game
- Constantly chains takedowns together and wears opponents down with pace, control, and ground-and-pound
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-6 (11 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Powerful striker with heavy hands and the ability to do serious damage in exchanges
- Strong grappler in his own right, making him more difficult to control than Hernandez's typical opponent
DFS Perspective:
Rodrigues is dangerous and has the power and grappling to make this interesting, but Hernandez's pace is just on another level. I expect Fluffy to constantly pressure, chain takedowns together, and force Rodrigues to work every second of this fight. Rodrigues has the power to change things early, but the longer this goes, the more it favors Hernandez. The takedown and control upside makes Hernandez one of the better DFS targets on the card.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Hernandez
Think Hernandez gets back on track in the main event, and want to play his striking or takedown totals? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Serghei Spivac (18-6-0) v. Vitor Petrino (14-2-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-6 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Heavyweight grappler with strong takedowns, top control, and dangerous submissions
- Physical ground game can create problems, but he is much less comfortable when forced into extended striking exchanges
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Powerful athlete with dangerous striking and enough grappling ability to compete wherever the fight goes
- Carries the bigger threat on the feet and has the physicality to make Spivac work for his takedowns
DFS Perspective:
I see this being a close fight. Both guys can grapple and should have their moments on the ground, but Petrino has the clear edge when this stays on the feet. If he can prevent Spivac from controlling long stretches of the fight, his power and striking should be the difference. The slight lean is to Petrino in a competitive heavyweight matchup.
UFC Sacramento pick: Petrino
Reinier de Ridder (21-4-0) v. Roman Dolidze (15-5-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21-4 (4 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- High-level submission grappler with dangerous back takes and excellent control once he gets opponents to the mat
- Constantly looks to close distance and turn striking exchanges into opportunities to initiate his grappling
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-5 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Powerful striker with a strong grappling background and legitimate finishing ability everywhere
- Physical and difficult to control, with enough power to punish opponents who get careless closing distance
DFS Perspective:
This is an interesting matchup because Dolidze has the grappling ability to make de Ridder work much harder than usual on the ground. The difference for me is de Ridder's ability to constantly create grappling exchanges and hunt submissions from multiple positions. Dolidze has the clear power advantage on the feet and is absolutely live if he can keep this standing, but I slightly prefer de Ridder to eventually take control on the mat.
UFC Sacramento pick: de Ridder
MarQuel Mederos (11-1-1) v. Mason Jones (18-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-1-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Athletic striker with fast hands, solid power, and an aggressive offensive game
- Dangerous when given space to work, but faces a major test against the pressure and experience of Jones
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-2 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with excellent cardio, high output, and a well-rounded skill set
- Willing to mix striking and wrestling while forcing opponents to work at his pace
DFS Perspective:
Mederos is dangerous and has the striking to make this competitive, but I like Jones' pressure and overall game here. He should be able to push a pace that makes Mederos uncomfortable while mixing in his wrestling to keep him guessing. The longer this fight goes, the more I expect Jones to take over. Jones is the preferred side with a solid DFS ceiling through volume and takedowns.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Jones
Carli Judice (6-2-0) v. Jeisla Chaves (7-0-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6-2 (5 KO/TKO)
- High-volume striker who pushes a strong pace and is willing to stay aggressive for all three rounds
- Uses her length well and can pile up significant strikes when opponents are willing to exchange
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (3 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with dangerous power and an aggressive striking style
- Confident finisher who will have an opportunity to make a statement in a significant step up in competition
DFS Perspective:
Chaves is intriguing as an undefeated prospect, but this is a significant step up in competition. I like Judice's volume and experience to become the difference, especially if this fight gets extended. Chaves certainly has the power to make things interesting early, but I expect Judice to weather it and gradually take control with her output. Judice is the preferred side in what could be a high-scoring fight.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Judice
Anthony Wint (7-0-0) v. Terrance Chatman (5-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with explosive athleticism and legitimate finishing power
- Aggressive when he sees an opening and has shown the ability to end fights quickly
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-1 (4 KO/TO)
- Athletic prospect with dangerous power and a willingness to exchange
- Still relatively inexperienced and draws a brutal matchup against a much more dangerous finisher
DFS Perspective:
I have a lot of confidence in Wint here. He has a massive power advantage, and this feels like a matchup where he should be able to impose himself immediately. Chatman will have a very difficult time surviving if he gets dragged into exchanges early. I expect Wint to flatline him and put up one of the better DFS scores on the card.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Wint
Jamall Emmers (22-8-0) v. Lerryan Douglas (14-5-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-8 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Experienced, well-rounded fighter with technical striking and solid wrestling
- Usually fights a composed style and has the tools to compete wherever the fight goes
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-5 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with legitimate power and a willingness to turn fights into a firefight
- Most dangerous when he can pressure forward and force opponents into extended exchanges
DFS Perspective:
Emmers is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter, but Douglas brings the more dangerous offensive weapons. I expect Emmers to have success if he can slow things down and mix in his wrestling, but Douglas' pressure and power make that difficult for three rounds. Slight lean Douglas to land the more damaging shots and get his hand raised.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Douglas
Shamil Gaziev (14-3-0) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (17-8-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Massive heavyweight with heavy hands and the physicality to bully opponents in close
- Most dangerous early when he can pressure forward and use his size to dictate the fight
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-8 (10 KO/TKO)
- Long, powerful striker with dangerous knees and significant knockout upside
- Can be dangerous once he gets going, but has struggled with consistency throughout his UFC career
DFS Perspective:
This is a close heavyweight fight, but I lean Gaziev because of the size and physicality he brings. Nzechukwu has the length and power to make him pay on the feet, but I expect Gaziev to pressure forward, close the distance, and make this an ugly fight. Slight lean Gaziev to use his strength and physical advantage to get it done.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Gaziev
Nasrat Haqparast (18-6-0) v. Chris Padilla (17-6-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18-6 (10 KO/TKO)
- Technical boxer with fast hands, clean combinations, and plenty of experience against UFC-level competition
- Does his best work when he can control the range and build his offense behind consistent volume
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6-1 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Aggressive, well-rounded fighter with dangerous finishing ability both standing and on the mat
- Willing to pressure forward and make fights uncomfortable rather than settle into a technical striking battle
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight, but I like Haqparast's experience and cleaner striking to be the difference. Padilla is dangerous and has more ways to find a finish, but Nasrat should have the advantage during extended exchanges on the feet. I expect him to land the cleaner combinations and do enough to get his hand raised. Slight lean Haqparast, but this isn't a fight I'm looking to prioritize in DFS.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Haqparast
Marcio Barbosa (18-2-0) v. Ryan Kuse (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-2 (15 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Experienced finisher with dangerous power and a well-rounded offensive game
- Comfortable pushing the action and has multiple ways to end the fight if he gets Kuse in trouble
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-2 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with legitimate power and strong finishing instincts
- Dangerous when he can dictate the exchanges, but faces a major jump in experience here
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a tough step up for Kuse. He has enough power to be dangerous, but Barbosa has significantly more experience and brings plenty of finishing ability of his own. I expect Barbosa to handle the early aggression, find his openings, and eventually take control. Barbosa is the preferred side with strong finishing upside.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Barbosa
Gauge Young (11-3-0) v. Stan Dorsainvil (5-0-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Experienced, well-rounded fighter with solid pressure and a willingness to mix striking and wrestling
- Has faced the tougher competition and is comfortable turning fights into gritty, high-paced battles
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-0 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with explosive athleticism and dangerous finishing ability
- Still relatively untested, but has shown plenty of upside when he's able to dictate the pace
DFS Perspective:
Dorsainvil is an interesting prospect, but this is a significant step up against someone with much more experience. I like Young's ability to mix everything together and make this a difficult fight for him. If Young can survive the early danger and drag Dorsainvil into deeper waters, I expect his experience to take over. Lean Young to hand Dorsainvil his first loss.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Young
Jackson McVey (7-2-0) v. Wes Schultz (9-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-2 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with good size, power, and an aggressive striking game
- Looks to take control early and has the power to punish opponents who are willing to exchange
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-3 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Aggressive fighter with plenty of finishing ability and legitimate power on the feet
- Willing to push the pace and turn fights into exchanges where either fighter can find the finish
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a fight that could get wild early. Both guys have plenty of finishing ability, but I slightly prefer McVey's size and power to be the difference. Schultz is dangerous enough that I wouldn't consider McVey safe, but this is a fight worth targeting for its finishing potential. Lean McVey to get it done.
UFC Sacramento Pick: McVey
Shanelle Dyer (7-1-0) v. Elise Reed (8-5-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1 (5 KO/TKO)
- Athletic striker with fast hands, good power, and the ability to push a strong pace
- Still developing, but brings significantly more explosiveness and finishing upside to this matchup
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-5 (2 KO/TKO)
- Experienced striker with solid fundamentals and plenty of UFC-level competition
- Tough and willing to exchange, but has struggled when opponents can overwhelm her with pressure
DFS Perspective:
Reed has the experience advantage, but I like Dyer's athleticism, speed, and power to be the difference. Dyer should be able to dictate the striking exchanges and force Reed onto the defensive for long stretches. I expect Dyer to take control early and continue pulling away as the fight goes on. Dyer is the preferred side with solid finishing upside.
UFC Sacramento Pick: Dyer
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
