Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 120
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC Vegas 120 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 120 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 211-86-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Ty Miller
Fanduel Captain: Ty Miller
Mateusz Gamrot (26-4-0) v. Quillan Salkilld (12-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 26-4 (8 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Elite wrestler with relentless takedowns, outstanding scrambles, and relentless pace
- Excels at controlling opponents over three rounds while piling up control time
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-1 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Explosive striker with legitimate knockout power and excellent athleticism
- Dangerous at range, but this is by far the toughest test of his career
DFS Perspective:
This is a huge step up in competition for Salkilld. While I think he has the power and athleticism to make this a competitive fight, I trust Gamrot's wrestling far more than Salkilld's striking. Expect Gamrot to close the distance, rack up takedowns and control large portions of the fight. Salkilld is live if he can keep it standing, but Gamrot is the preferred DFS play thanks to his elite control upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Gamrot
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Billy Quarantillo (18-7-0) v. Diego Ferreira (19-7-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-7 (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- High-volume pressure fighter with relentless cardio and a well-rounded offensive game
- Continues to push the pace for all three rounds and is difficult to discourage
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-7 (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Veteran grappler with dangerous submissions and underrated striking
- Still a tough out, but age and durability are beginning to become concerns
DFS Perspective:
I think Quarantillo is much better than what he has shown over his last few fights. He may be the underdog here, but this feels like a great opportunity to get back into the win column against an aging veteran. Ferreira is always dangerous because of his grappling, but I expect Quarantillo's pace, pressure and volume to wear him down over three rounds. Quarantillo stands out as one of the better value plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Quarantillo
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Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) v. Alexia Thainara (14-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-6-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Powerful striker with legitimate knockout power and dangerous submission skills
- Most effective when she can keep fights standing and land clean, heavy shots
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (8 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with strong grappling and excellent positional control
- Continues to climb the rankings with a composed, technical style
DFS Perspective:
This is a huge opportunity for Thainara against one of the division's most experienced fighters. Lemos always carries fight-ending power, but I like Thainara's youth, grappling and ability to control where the fight takes place. If she avoids the big shots early, I expect her to wear Lemos down and earn the biggest win of her career. Thainara profiles as one of the better value plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Thainara
Ty Miller (7-0-0) v. Billy Ray Goff (9-4-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (3 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with explosive power and excellent athleticism
- Aggressive offensive style that looks to overwhelm opponents early
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9-4 (7 KO/TKO)
- Tough, aggressive pressure fighter with dangerous knockout power
- Thrives in chaotic exchanges and is always willing to trade in the pocket
DFS Perspective:
This should be one of the more entertaining fights on the card. Miller is an exciting, undefeated prospect, but Goff has the experience and toughness to test him from the opening bell. I still lean Miller because of his athleticism and finishing upside, but this is far from an easy matchup. Expect fireworks while it lasts, making this an excellent fight to target in tournaments.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Miller
Darren Elkins (29-12-0) v. Yadier del Valle (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-12 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Veteran grinder with relentless wrestling, cardio, and toughness
- Constantly pressures opponents and looks to break them over the course of the fight
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-1 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Explosive prospect with dangerous power and strong finishing instincts
- Athletic striker who does his best work when he can dictate the pace early
DFS Perspective:
This is another crossroads fight between a seasoned veteran and a rising prospect. Elkins is always capable of making fights ugly with his wrestling and toughness, but I think del Valle has the athleticism and finishing ability to keep this fight where he wants it. If he can defend the takedowns early, I expect him to separate himself on the feet and continue his rise. Del Valle profiles as the preferred side with solid finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: del Valle
Steven Asplund (7-2-0) v. Guilherme Pat (6-1-0)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-2 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with excellent volume and legitimate finishing power
- Constantly pressures opponents and forces a high-paced fight on the feet
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (4 KO/TKO)
- Technical, well-rounded prospect with clean boxing and a solid grappling game
- Patient fighter who prefers to make reads before increasing his output
DFS Perspective:
I like Asplund's volume and power to carry him to another win. Pat is a talented prospect with a well-rounded skill set, but I think Asplund's pace and willingness to engage will be the difference. If he can keep the pressure on and turn this into a striking battle, I expect him to outwork Pat over three rounds. Asplund stands out as a solid value play with upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Asplund
Juliana Miller (4-4-0) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-4-1)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 4-4 (1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive grappler with relentless pressure and a willingness to hunt submissions at every opportunity
- Excels in scrambles and is at her best when she can turn fights into gritty grappling battles
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-4-1 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Striker who prefers to fight at range and keep the action standing
- Has struggled to consistently deal with opponents who can pressure and wrestle effectively
DFS Perspective:
This is a great opportunity for Miller to get back into the win column. Oliveira has not shown enough for me to trust her in this matchup, especially against someone who is going to pressure her from the opening bell. If Miller can consistently get this fight to the mat, I expect her grappling to take over. Miller is my preferred side and makes for a solid value play with submission upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Miller
Jose Montanha (6-1-0) v. Louie Sutherland (11-5-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submission)
- Athletic prospect with dangerous power and a well-rounded offensive game
- Aggressive style allows him to dictate the pace and create early finishing opportunities
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-5 (8 KO/TKO)
- Experienced fighter with a balanced skill set and solid durability
- Most effective when he can slow the pace and turn fights into technical battles
DFS Perspective:
Montanha has the higher ceiling in this matchup. Sutherland's experience makes him a very live favorite, but I think Montanha's athleticism, power and pace will be too much to handle. Expect Montanha to push the action early and separate himself as the fight goes on. Montanha profiles as a strong value play with legitimate finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Montanha
Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2-0) v. Bruno Lopes (14-3-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-2 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Powerful southpaw with dangerous finishing ability and heavy hands
- Prefers to pressure forward and force opponents into striking exchanges
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with a balanced striking attack and solid grappling
- Patient approach allows him to capitalize on opponents' mistakes
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight, but I like Nurgozhay's power and aggression. Lopes is durable and has multiple paths to victory, but I expect Nurgozhay to be the one landing the bigger shots and dictating the pace on the feet. If he gets into a rhythm early, I think he has a good chance to find the finish. Nurgozhay is the preferred side with solid DFS upside.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Nurgozhay
Manoel Sousa (14-1-0) v. Richie Miranda (13-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded finisher with crisp boxing and excellent cardio
- Does his best work as fights progress, steadily increasing his pace and output
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-1 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Tough, durable fighter with a balanced skill set and solid grappling
- Comfortable fighting at a high pace and capable of making adjustments throughout a fight
DFS Perspective:
This should be one of the more entertaining and competitive fights on the card. Miranda is skilled enough to keep things close early, but I like Sousa to gradually take control as the fight wears on. His cardio, volume and ability to make adjustments should allow him to separate himself in the later rounds. Sousa is the preferred side and offers a nice combination of floor and upside for DFS.
UFC Vegas 120 Pick: Sousa
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
