Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 121
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC Vegas 121 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 121 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 261-121-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Osmanli
Fanduel Captain: Osmanli/Bellato
Raul Rosas Jr. (12-1-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (22-5-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12-1 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Relentless grappler who constantly hunts takedowns, takes the back extremely well, and creates huge DFS upside through control and submission attempts
- Still developing on the feet, but his pace, youth, and willingness to chain wrestling attempts together make him difficult to keep off for three rounds
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-5 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Extremely well-rounded veteran with strong defensive wrestling, technical striking, and the experience to remain composed in difficult positions
- Has the skill set to make Rosas work much harder for his takedowns than most opponents, while holding a clear advantage in extended striking exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This is a really interesting test for Rosas because Barcelos isn't an easy guy to overwhelm with wrestling. Rosas should have a massive pace and youth advantage, but if Barcelos can consistently stuff the takedowns, the striking exchanges become much more concerning. I still slightly prefer Rosas to keep forcing the grappling until he starts finding success, and that style always gives him a strong DFS ceiling. I'll side with Rosas, but this is far from a comfortable matchup.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Rosas
Backing Rosas and interested in playing the takedown totals for this fight on pick'em sites? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing actual betting lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Rodolfo Vieira (11-5-0) v. Robert Bryczek (18-7-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-5 (1 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Elite submission grappler who is at his best when he can force opponents to the mat and begin working from dominant positions
- His DFS ceiling is heavily tied to getting the grappling going, where takedowns, control time, and submission opportunities can pile up quickly
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-7 (12 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful striker who does his best work when he can keep fights standing and force opponents into extended exchanges
- Carries legitimate finishing power and should have a significant striking advantage if he can consistently keep Vieira from getting to his legs
DFS Perspective:
This one is pretty straightforward stylistically. Vieira wants absolutely nothing to do with an extended striking fight, while Bryczek needs to keep this off the mat at all costs. I trust Vieira to eventually get to the grappling, and once he gets Bryczek down, there could be a massive gap between the two. I'll side with Vieira to find the submission, giving him plenty of DFS upside if he gets it done early.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Vieira
Ilimbek Akylbek (10-3-0) v. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (12-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (6 submissions)
- Physical fighter who brings pressure and is comfortable mixing his striking with grappling exchanges
- Has more experience dealing with losses and adversity, but faces a dangerous opponent who has been extremely difficult to beat
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 12-1 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Powerful, athletic prospect who brings an aggressive offensive approach and looks to put opponents on the defensive early
- Has shown strong finishing upside and enters with momentum, making him dangerous if Akylbek allows him to dictate the pace
DFS Perspective:
There are still some unknowns here, but I slightly prefer Osmanli. He has the better record, and I like the athleticism and offensive upside he brings into this matchup. Akylbek should make him work and has enough experience to keep things competitive, but I expect Osmanli to land the more damaging offense. Slight lean Osmanli in a fight that could become much more interesting for DFS if the price is right.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Osmanli
Valesca Machado (15-4-0) v. Melissa Amaya (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-4 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Experienced striker who mixes her boxing with kicks and is comfortable working through extended exchanges
- Brings considerably more professional experience and should provide a good test for an opponent who has yet to suffer a loss
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect with solid finishing ability and enough versatility to threaten both on the feet and on the ground
- Still relatively inexperienced, but has continued to pass every test and gets an opportunity to prove herself against a more seasoned opponent
DFS Perspective:
Machado has the experience advantage and should make Amaya work for everything, but I'm willing to take a slight shot on the undefeated prospect. Amaya has continued to find ways to win, and I think she has enough offensive upside to edge out a competitive fight. I'll take Amaya to keep her undefeated record intact, although this isn't a fight I'm prioritizing for DFS.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Amaya
On board with this upset in the TUF Finale? See the salary relief using Amaya creates in DFS and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Rinya Nakamura (10-1-0) v. Brady Hiestand (8-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-1 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- High-level wrestler with explosive entries who is at his best when he can dictate where the fight takes place
- Athletic and physically strong with developing striking, but his biggest DFS upside comes through takedowns and extended control time
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-2 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Relentless grappler who pushes a hard pace and is willing to repeatedly wrestle until he gets the position he wants
- Scrambles extremely well and can generate plenty of DFS scoring through takedowns, control, and submission attempts
DFS Perspective:
This should be a really interesting grappling matchup with both guys wanting to impose their wrestling. Nakamura is the more accomplished wrestler, but Hiestand's pace and willingness to constantly scramble could make this much closer than expected. I slightly prefer Nakamura's athleticism and wrestling to be the difference, but I don't see an easy night for either guy. The amount of grappling could create solid DFS scoring opportunities regardless of who gets his hand raised.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Nakamura
Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1) v. Christian Edwards (8-5-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3-1 (8 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive light heavyweight who carries legitimate finishing power and is comfortable creating offense both standing and on the ground
- Pushes a strong pace for the division and is willing to make fights chaotic, which creates plenty of DFS upside but can also leave him vulnerable defensively
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-5 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Athletic striker with good length who has enough power to punish opponents when given clean opportunities
- Has been inconsistent throughout his career and now faces an opponent who should force him to work at a much higher pace
DFS Perspective:
Bellato can make things more difficult than they need to be because of how aggressively he fights, but this looks like a good matchup for him. Edwards has the length and power to make him pay for a mistake, but I don't trust him to consistently deal with Bellato's pressure and overall offense. I expect Bellato to take over and eventually find the finish. He profiles as a strong DFS target with multiple ways to put up a big score.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Bellato
Elves Brener (16-6-0) v. Josiah Harrell (11-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-6 (3 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Aggressive, durable fighter who is comfortable making fights ugly and attacking submissions whenever scrambles open up
- Willing to absorb damage to keep pressing forward, and his grappling gives him a dangerous path whenever opponents leave openings
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-1 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Athletic, explosive fighter who brings pressure and has shown the ability to finish fights in multiple ways
- Still relatively untested at this level, but his physicality and pace could give Brenner problems if he can keep the fight moving
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a pretty volatile matchup. Brenner has the experience and submission upside, but Harrell is younger, athletic, and capable of pushing a pace that could make this uncomfortable. I slightly prefer Brenner because of the grappling advantage and the fact that he has already been tested in tougher fights. If Harrell gets reckless in the scrambles, Brenner has the submission game to make him pay.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Brenner
Montel Jackson (15-4-0) v. Ricky Simon (22-7-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-4 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, athletic bantamweight with fast hands, real power, and the ability to hurt opponents quickly when he gets his timing down
- Uses his length well on the feet and has enough wrestling of his own to keep opponents from freely dictating where the fight takes place
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-7-1 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Relentless pressure wrestler who wants to force opponents backward, chain takedowns together, and grind out control time
- Tough and experienced, but the size and reach disadvantage could make it difficult for him to consistently close distance without eating clean shots
DFS Perspective:
This matchup really comes down to whether Simon can consistently get inside and make the wrestling work. Jackson has a massive size and reach advantage, and I think that makes Simon's job much more difficult. If Jackson can stuff the early takedowns and keep this at range, he should be able to land the cleaner and more damaging shots. I'll side with Jackson to use his length, speed, and power to get the win.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Jackson
Norma Dumont (13-3-0) v. Ailin Perez (13-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3 (2 submissions)
- Physical, well-rounded fighter who uses strong clinch work, solid takedown defense, and measured striking to control where fights take place
- Experienced in slower, tactical fights and does a good job staying composed when opponents try to force grappling-heavy exchanges
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-2 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive grappler who looks to pressure opponents, force takedowns, and build offense through control time
- Brings a higher-paced style and can score well for DFS when she is able to repeatedly get opponents to the mat
DFS Perspective:
I'm on Perez all the way here. Dumont is tough and physical, but Perez's pressure, wrestling, and control game are exactly what I want to target for DFS. I expect her to keep forcing grappling exchanges, rack up takedowns and control time, and make Dumont work from uncomfortable positions throughout the fight. Perez has one of the cleaner DFS paths on the card if she gets her wrestling going early.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Perez
John Casteneda (21-8-1) v. Alateng Heili (17-10-2)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 21-8-1 (7 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Well-rounded bantamweight who mixes pressure striking with solid wrestling and is comfortable pushing a steady pace
- Has the more varied offensive game and can create scoring through both volume on the feet and control if he gets the grappling going
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-10-2 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Compact, durable striker with solid power who is comfortable sitting down on his punches and trading in the pocket
- Experienced and difficult to overwhelm, but can struggle when opponents force him to defend multiple phases of the fight
DFS Perspective:
I like Castaneda here. He has more ways to win and should be able to keep Heili reacting with his pressure, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling. Heili is tough enough to make this competitive, but I expect Castaneda to be the busier fighter and control more of the exchanges. I'll side with Castaneda to get the win, with some decent DFS upside if the takedowns start adding up.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Casteneda
Mickey Gall (7-7-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 7-7 (6 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter who is at his best when he can force scrambles, attack submissions, and avoid extended striking exchanges
- Has struggled to consistently impose his game at the UFC level, making him difficult to trust if he cannot get the fight to the ground
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-5 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Long, athletic striker who uses his reach well and can be dangerous when opponents allow him to settle into a kickboxing rhythm
- Has the physical tools to control this matchup at range, but inconsistency has made him one of the harder fighters on the roster to trust
DFS Perspective:
This is a rough fight to feel good about because neither guy inspires much confidence. Gall has a clear path if he can get the grappling going, but if this stays standing, Dumas should have a major advantage with his length and athleticism. I'll slightly side with Gall to keep the fight at range and do enough to win, but this feels more like a DFS pass than a spot I want to force.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Gall
Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (11-8-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-2 (7 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with fast combinations, solid power, and a willingness to push the pace when she gets opponents backing up
- Most dangerous when she can keep the fight standing and build momentum through volume rather than getting tied up in extended grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 59" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-8 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Tough, scrappy fighter who is comfortable making fights ugly and looking for submission opportunities when opponents overextend
- Gives up a significant amount of striking speed and range here, so she will likely need to close distance and create grappling exchanges to have sustained success
DFS Perspective:
This looks like a strong spot for Jauregui. She should have a clear advantage in speed, volume, and striking quality, and I expect her to be the one controlling the pace for most of the fight. Demopoulos is tough and can be dangerous if she gets opportunities on the ground, but I don't love her chances of winning extended exchanges on the feet. I like Jauregui to pile up volume and get the win.
UFC Vegas 121 Pick: Jauregui
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
In search of a new, legal sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as these selections for the best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
