This article is part of our DFS NPB series.
Friday's NPB Opening Day action was fairly low-scoring, with teams managing an average of just 3.6 runs per game, as one might expect on a day in which every team got to trot out their best available pitcher. The game between the Dragons and the Swallows was the only exception, with the two sides combining for 16 runs and 35 hits in the Dragons' extra-innings victory. Dayan Viciedo's three hits and a homer for the Dragons represented the performance of the day, while Tetsuto Yamada and Norichika Aoki both homered for the Swallows. On a low-scoring day, plenty of pitchers opened their seasons with strong performances, but the Marines' Ayumu Ishikawa had perhaps the best outing of the day, holding the three-time defending champion Hawks scoreless through six innings while striking out seven and allowing just three baserunners. Saturday's slate should remain fairly low-scoring with every team using its number two starter. These games start at the comparatively reasonable hour of 1 am ET.
Pitchers
Yuki Matsui ($7,500) comes incredibly cheap for a pitcher who produced his numbers last season, though that's likely due to the fact that he spent the entire year in relief. The hard-throwing lefty saved 38 games for the Golden Eagles last year, his fourth season with at least 30 saves. What kind of workload he's able to handle upon his transition back to the rotation remains in doubt, but his production on a per-inning basis should be excellent. He struck out an incredible 39.5 percent of opposing batters last season en route to a 1.94 ERA, and while those numbers will likely fall as he converts to a starting role, they can fall quite far while still making him a very productive pitcher, especially for his price. Toss in the fact that he's facing a Buffaloes offense which ranked second-last in scoring last season and he looks like easily the steal of the day.
Like Matsui, Kazuto Taguchi ($8,200) spent last season in relief, likely the reason for his low price. He wasn't nearly as dominant as Matsui, as his 4.13 ERA was unimpressive, but his underlying numbers showed some promise. The 24-year-old struck out 23.9 percent of opposing batters while walking just 6.5 percent. He's had success in the past as a starter, cruising to a 3.01 ERA in 2017, so there's reason to believe he'll look good in the role again this season. He won't face a particularly tough test against the Tigers on Saturday, a team which finished last in runs per game in 2019.
Atsuki Taneichi ($12,700) faces the Hawks, who have won five of the last six Japan Series, though that matchup is less intimidating than you might expect, as the Hawks ranked a modest eighth in runs per game last season. The 21-year-old righty has the talent to shut down any lineup in the league. He cruised to a 3.24 ERA in his second season last year, backing that number up with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate. His 10.1 percent walk rate was higher than you'd like, but a high-strikeout, high-walk arm has a much higher fantasy ceiling than a pitcher who avoids runs merely by letting his defense do the work for him.
Top Targets
Dayan Viciedo ($6,600) was the highest-scoring hitter on Opening Day, homering as part of a three-hit day for a Dragons team that scored nine runs, tied for the most on the slate. His Dragons could be in for another big day against Swallows starter Yasuhiro Ogawa, who struggled to a 4.57 ERA last season. Viciedo has an established track record of success in his four NPB seasons, hitting .303/.372/.502 while averaging 21 homers per year.
Hotaka Yamakawa ($8,100) is one of the most expensive batters on the slate, though you'll be able to afford him if you select one of the cheaper pitchers listed above. It's hard to argue with his price, as he's coming off back-to-back 40-homer seasons, launching 43 last year and hitting 47 as part of an MVP campaign in 2018. He managed 120 or more RBI in both of those seasons. His batting average slipped from .281 to .256 last year, but as long as he keeps showcasing that kind of power and RBI numbers, he's worth the high price tag, especially since he's the cleanup hitter on the team that led the league in scoring last season.
Bargain Bats
Tomotaka Sakaguchi ($3,200) didn't quite fit into the Swallows stack listed below, but he's an interesting budget option as a replacement for or in addition to his more expensive teammates. The 35-year-old struggled to an awful .125 batting average in a tiny sample of just 22 games last season, but he was quite a strong contact hitter in each of his three previous seasons for the Swallows, hitting .290 or better in all three campaigns. He's interesting here primarily for his price and lineup position, as he led off and grabbed three hits, scoring twice, on Opening Day.
Jose Pirela ($4,800) impressed in his first career NPB game, homering as part of a three-hit day as part of the Carp's 5-1 win over the BayStars. Pirela spent parts of six seasons at the MLB level, appearing for the Yankees, Padres and Phillies, but was never particularly successful outside of a strong half-season in 2017, as he headed overseas last offseason after posting a career .257/.308/.392 slash line. Still, the fact that he's had even a modest amount of MLB success should set him up well in Japan. The same can't be said for BayStars' starter Michael Peoples, a 28-year-old who never reached the major-league level and who recorded a fine but forgettable 3.98 ERA for Triple-A Columbus last season.
Stacks To Consider
Swallows vs. Kazuki Yoshimi: Tetsuto Yamada ($6,900), Munetaka Murakami ($5,800), Norichika Aoki ($5,200)
The Swallows finished third in the league in scoring last season and got off on the right foot on Opening Day, scoring seven runs in a game they would eventually lose in extra innings. They're a good bet to produce a similar performance Saturday against the 35-year-old Yoshimi. The veteran righty spent much of last season in the minors, hardly a surprise given that he struggled to a 6.41 ERA in 19.2 innings at the highest level. His 3.87 ERA in 2018 was decent enough, but it came with a very low 11.8 percent strikeout rate, so Swallows hitters shouldn't have much to fear.
Number two hitter Yamada won't get the platoon advantage in this game, but he's talented enough for that not to matter much given the matchup. No one else in NPB history has more than one 30-homer, 30-steal season, but he's done it four times in the last five years. The second baseman owns a lifetime .297/.401/.533 slash line heading into his eighth season in the league. He opened the 2020 season on the right foot Friday, going 2-for-5 with a homer.
Cleanup hitter Murakami will be one of many Swallows hitting in the top half of the order who will get the platoon advantage against Yoshimi. The 20-year-old hit just .231 with a 31.0 percent strikeout rate last season, but he won the Rookie of the Year award nonetheless thanks to his 36 homers and overall solid .231/.332/.481 slash line. He grabbed a pair of hits and a pair of RBI on Opening Day and should be in for another big game with a shaky righty on the mound for the Dragons.
Aoki is a name MLB fans will recognize, as he hit a solid .285/.350/.387 across his six-year MLB career, playing for the Brewers, Royals, Giants, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays and Mets. The 38-year-old has been back in his home country for the past two years and is still going strong, hitting .297/.385/.442 with 16 homers last season, his second-highest mark in his 10 seasons in the league. He homered as part of a 2-for-4 day Friday and should be set for another strong showing with the platoon advantage against Yoshimi in this one.
Giants vs. Yuta Iwasada: Hayato Sakamoto ($8,700), Kazuma Okamoto ($7,000), Yoshihiro Maru ($7,400)
The Giants led the Central League in scoring last season and shouldn't have a particularly tough task Saturday. Iwasada's 4.02 ERA last year (which came in just 40.1 innings) wasn't terrible but is still one of the higher marks among the day's starters. His 19.1 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate weren't far from league average, but that's not great on a day in which teams are trotting out their second starters. Iwasada did manage a solid 3.48 ERA in 2018, but he's stumbled to an ERA above 4.00 in four of his six years in the league.
With a lefty on the mound for the Tigers, we'll want to stack the Giants' top right-handed bats here. Shortstop Sakamoto headlines that group. The 31-year-old was a strong contact hitter with generally modest power for the majority of his career, but he suddenly broke out to hit 40 bombs last season, just the second time in his career he'd hit more than 23 and the first time he'd done so since all the way back in 2010. Combined with his .312 batting average, that was enough to earn him a well-deserved MVP award. He tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the month but was in the lineup on Opening Day, batting second and going 1-for-4.
Cleanup man Okamoto is just 23 years old but has already established himself as a strong power hitter. He hit 33 homers in 2018 and followed that up with 31 bombs last year. His batting average dropped from .309 to .265 last season, but at his young age, there's still plenty of room for him to improve and become a consistent all-around hitter. Even if his average remains modest this season, his role as a slugging cleanup hitter in one of the league's best lineups should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
The Giants are rather lefty-heavy, so we'll be forced to go with a left-handed bat with the platoon disadvantage to round out this stack, but Maru is talented enough that he should still be worth including. The veteran outfielder, who hit third on Opening Day, has been a strong all-around hitter through his 10-year NPB career, hitting .281/.388/.465. He's been quite good in his last four season, hitting .291 or better with 20 or more home runs in each campaign.
