Mention markets represent one of the fastest-growing categories in prediction markets. Rather than betting on outcomes like election winners or championship results, mention markets let you trade on what someone will actually say, including specific words, phrases, or terms spoken or posted during a defined event or time window.
Whether it's predicting how many times the Fed Chair says "inflation" at a press conference or whether Trump will tweet a specific phrase this week, these markets sit at the intersection of language, current events, and real-money wagering. Prediction markets platforms have leaned heavily into the format, recognizing that mentions markets attract both casual fans and sharp traders who follow political, financial, and cultural figures closely.
If you're looking for a fresh angle on prediction markets, mention markets offer some of the most engaging and high-volume contracts available right now.
Prediction markets discussed on this page let you bet on real-world events including mentions with real liquidity. Prediction Insiders uses an algorithm to identify the most consistently profitable players on predictions platforms and delivers their plays directly to you in real time, with exact contract sizing and 1-click execution. Check out Prediction Insiders in the link below!
Mentions Markets: Quick Facts
Below are the quick facts on all you need to know when it comes to mentions markets.
Mention markets are prediction market contracts that resolve based on whether a specific word, phrase, or term is said, posted, or otherwise spoken during a defined event or time period. Instead of predicting what happens, you're predicting what gets said, and at what frequency.
Common examples include markets on how many times the Federal Reserve Chair will say "inflation" during a press conference, whether a sitting president will reference a particular country or topic in a given week, or what specific words will appear in a YouTube creator's next video. The underlying event could be a speech, a press conference, a debate, a live broadcast, an earnings call, or even a social media post. Resolution is typically handled through official transcripts, closed captioning data, or verified recordings of the relevant event.
How to Trade Mention Markets
Trading mention markets works the same way as trading any prediction market contract. You buy "Yes" shares if you believe the word or phrase will be mentioned the specified number of times, and "No" shares if you think it won't. Share prices reflect the market's estimated probability of the outcome and fluctuate up to resolution. Here's how to trade mentions contracts on most of the best predictions apps.
✅ Click on one of the PLAY NOW links on this page for your chosen platform
✅ Create an account on that platform
✅ Fund your account
✅ Browse the mentions category and find a market tied to an upcoming event
✅ Analyze the resolution criteria to understand how it will be verified.
✅ Buy shares at the current market price and hold until the market resolves
Where to Trade Mention Markets
Mention markets are currently available on several regulated platforms. In the U.S., Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, making it the most legally straightforward option for American traders. Polymarket is the dominant global platform by volume and has the deepest mentions liquidity. OG.com, Robinhood Predictions, and Fanatics Markets round out the competitive landscape, each bringing their own flavor to how mentions markets are structured and presented.
Learn more about where you can trade contracts on mentions in our prediction markets map.
Newer entrants looking for alternative market formats
Robinhood Predictions
Politics, economics, sports
Retail traders already in the Robinhood ecosystem
Fanatics Markets
Sports, pop culture, entertainment
Sports-focused mentions tied to athlete/media events
Polymarket Mentions Markets
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market by trading volume, and its mentions section is arguably the most developed of any platform. Markets are community-created and cover an extraordinary breadth of events, from weekly "What will Trump say?" series running $100K+ in volume to one-off markets on what specific phrases a tech CEO will use at a keynote.
The platform uses USDC on Polygon for settlement, which means U.S. users access it through Polymarket US while international users operate on the unregulated side. For mentions specifically, Polymarket's edge is liquidity and variety, so if there's a major speech, press conference, or cultural moment coming up, there's almost certainly a mention market for it.
On top of it all, the Polymarket invite codeROTOWIRE is tough to beat, rewarding new users with a $50 bonus just by depositing $20.
Kalshi Mentions Markets
Kalshi is the premier fully CFTC-regulated prediction market platform for U.S. traders, and its mentions category is growing steadily. Kalshi's mentions markets tend to focus on high-stakes events like Federal Reserve press conferences, presidential speeches, and earnings calls.
What sets Kalshi apart is its regulatory standing: all markets are reviewed and approved under U.S. commodity trading law, giving traders a level of consumer protection not found on most competitors. For traders who prioritize operating within a clear legal framework, Kalshi is the gold standard for mention markets in the United States.
Make sure to sign up with the Kalshi promo codeROTOWIRE to get $10 just by trading $10!
OG.com Mentions Markets
OG.com takes a modern, clean approach to prediction markets that appeals to users looking for a polished alternative to Polymarket's more utilitarian interface. The platform covers politics and current events, and while its mentions section is smaller than Polymarket's, it's developing a distinct identity around culturally relevant and timely events.
OG.com is worth watching for mention markets as the platform continues to expand its market creation tools and grows its user base. Traders who find value in early-stage liquidity may find interesting opportunities here. Additionally, you can get up to $100 in bonuses if you're a new user with the OG.com promo code!
Robinhood Mentions Markets
Robinhood Predictions brings mention markets to the massive existing Robinhood retail trading base, which is its primary advantage. You can also get a free stock valued up to $200 with the Robinhood predictions promo code. The integration with Robinhood's core financial app means users can manage prediction market positions alongside stocks and crypto in a single interface.
Its mention market offering currently focuses on politics and major economic events, consistent with Robinhood's broader user interests. The platform operates as a regulated U.S. exchange, and its brand recognition lowers the barrier to entry for people who have never traded prediction markets before but are already comfortable with the Robinhood ecosystem.
Fanatics Mentions Markets
Fanatics Markets enters the prediction market space with a sports-first identity backed by one of the most recognized brands in sports commerce. For mention markets specifically, Fanatics gravitates toward sports media and entertainment angles like what an athlete or analyst will say during a broadcast, post-game press conference, or media day event.
The platform's built-in audience of sports fans gives it a natural home for this type of market, and its ties to the broader Fanatics ecosystem (including FanCash rewards) create a compelling incentive structure for engaged users. If sports-adjacent mentions markets are your focus, Fanatics Markets is the platform to watch. Additionally, you can get a $75 bonus after trading $75 in contracts with the Fanatics Markets promo!
These are the typical mentions markets that you can find at predictions platforms. Note that they could differ over time given the fluidity of the legal timeline of prediction markets.
What Will Trump Say This Week?
The weekly "What will Trump say?" series on Polymarket consistently ranks among the highest-volume mentions markets on any platform. Each weekly market features 30+ possible phrases ranging from geopolitical references like "President Xi" to cultural touchstones like "MAGA" and resolves based on verified statements made across Trump's public appearances, press conferences, and official communications. Volume regularly exceeds $100,000 per weekly cycle, reflecting the enormous public interest in tracking the language of the sitting U.S. president. These markets are as much a barometer of the political news cycle as they are a trading opportunity.
What Will Powell Say at the Press Conference?
Federal Reserve Chair press conferences generate some of the most sophisticated mention markets in the entire category. The Powell press conference markets ask traders to predict how many times specific economic terms like "inflation," "labor market," or "data-dependent" will appear in the Chair's remarks. With six to eight Fed meetings per year, these markets recur regularly and draw both casual traders and financially sophisticated participants who follow monetary policy closely. The Powell "bingo" format on Polymarket, which bundles multiple term predictions into a single event, has become one of the platform's flagship market structures.
What Will Trump Say in March? (Monthly)
Alongside the weekly series, Polymarket runs a monthly "What will Trump say?" market that tracks language across a full calendar month. With a volume ceiling well over $100,000, the monthly format captures lower-frequency but higher-impact phrases, things the president might say only a handful of times per month. These markets tend to feature more politically charged and newsworthy terms, making them popular with traders who follow national politics closely. They're also useful for identifying which political narratives are gaining traction at any given moment, since market prices reflect collective expectations about what topics will dominate the month's news cycle.
What Will Jensen Huang Say at the NVIDIA GTC Keynote?
Tech keynotes have emerged as a natural home for mention markets, and Jensen Huang's annual NVIDIA GTC keynote is among the most-traded examples. These markets focus on AI and semiconductor terminology and attract traders who follow the tech sector. The markets are tightly tied to the news cycle around NVIDIA's product announcements and are often resolved quickly via published transcripts or official video. For traders who track the AI industry, the GTC keynote mention markets offer a unique way to monetize detailed knowledge of Jensen Huang's speaking patterns and NVIDIA's messaging priorities.
What Will Keir Starmer Say at PMQs?
Prime Minister's Questions is a weekly fixture of British political life, and Polymarket has built a recurring mention market around Keir Starmer's language at the dispatch box. The most popular market option is a reliable market given the formal parliamentary context, where that phrase is nearly mandatory. Additional markets cover more policy-specific language, giving traders who follow U.K. politics an opportunity to profit from deep familiarity with parliamentary norms and Starmer's rhetorical tendencies. The predictable weekly schedule makes this one of the more reliable recurring mention markets available.
What Will MrBeast Say in His Next YouTube Video?
MrBeast mention markets represent the pop culture wing of the category, tracking language in the next upload from the world's most-subscribed YouTuber. Markets include phrases tied to his video formats ("subscribe," specific collaborator names, challenge-specific vocabulary) and resolve based on captions or transcripts from the published video. These markets attract a younger, entertainment-focused trading demographic and offer a lighter-stakes entry point into the mention market format. Volume is modest compared to political or financial speech markets, but the niche audience is highly engaged.
NCAA Tournament: Rothstein "This Is March" Tweet Count
One of the more creatively specific mention markets on Polymarket asks traders to predict how many times sports media personality Jon Rothstein will tweet the phrase "This is March" during the NCAA Tournament. It's a niche but telling example of how mention markets can emerge around any recurring, trackable pattern of language, not just high-profile speeches. This market works because Rothstein's "This is March" tweet is a known and beloved ritual among college basketball fans, making it highly predictable in aggregate even if the precise count is uncertain. It's a great illustration of the range the format is capable of covering.
Valorant Masters Grand Finals Mentions
Esports mention markets have begun gaining traction on Polymarket, with the Valorant Masters Grand Finals offering a notable example. These markets track in-game and broadcast terminology across the live broadcast of the tournament's grand final. Esports mention markets are appealing because the underlying language is highly specialized, rewarding traders with deep game knowledge. As esports continues to grow as a mainstream entertainment category, these markets are likely to see increasing volume on major platforms.
Mention markets resolve through verification of the relevant source material, most commonly an official transcript, closed captioning file, broadcast recording, or platform-specific data source. The resolution criteria are defined at the time the market is created and published publicly on each platform.
For political speech markets, resolution typically relies on official transcripts published by the White House, Federal Reserve, or equivalent governing body. For broadcast markets, platforms generally use auto-generated captions, official transcripts, or designated third-party verification. Social media post markets are resolved by direct review of the public post record.
Edge cases like a word spoken off-mic, a phrase appearing in a written slide but not spoken aloud, or a transcript that omits a known utterance are handled according to each platform's posted rules, which usually defer to the official source document regardless of what was audibly said. Traders should always read the resolution source specification before entering a mentions market.
The most fundamental mentions market strategy is understanding how the market resolves before you trade it. A word that's clearly spoken may not appear in the official transcript, and a word that appears in a transcript may have been muttered quietly or edited out of the final record.
Sharp traders read the resolution criteria carefully and only trade markets where the official transcript source is clear and reliable. If a market resolves on White House transcripts, study how those transcripts handle informal speech, interruptions, and colloquialisms before entering a position.
Anchor on Base Rates
The most consistent edge in mention markets comes from studying how often a speaker uses specific words historically. If you want to trade whether Powell will say "inflation" 40+ times at a press conference, pull transcripts from prior Fed press conferences and count.
Base rates are publicly available for almost any major recurring event and are underutilized by casual traders who rely on intuition alone. Tracking even a handful of prior data points will put you ahead of most market participants.
Exploit Topic Salience
Market prices for mentions markets reflect the collective expectation of what a speaker will talk about. When a major news story breaks shortly before a scheduled press conference or speech, words related to that story will become more likely to appear but the market may not have fully repriced yet. Trading the gap between breaking news and market reaction is one of the most reliable real-time edges in the format. If tariffs dominate the headlines two hours before a presidential press conference, "tariff" mention markets are probably underpriced.
Understand the Speaker's Rhetorical Habits
Every public figure has verbal tics, favorite phrases, and recurring rhetorical structures. Knowing that a politician consistently uses a specific framing or that a tech CEO has a go-to analogy gives you a non-public edge that isn't captured in pre-event news. Study prior speeches, interviews, and transcripts. This is especially valuable for esports, entertainment, and sports mention markets where the underlying speaker is less covered by mainstream analysis.
Trade the Range, Not Just the Binary
Many mention markets offer multiple outcome buckets rather than a simple yes/no. A market asking "How many times will Trump say X?" might offer 0–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16+ as options. Casual traders tend to pile into the most intuitive bucket, leaving the tails mispriced.
If your base rate analysis suggests a distribution that's meaningfully different from what the market is implying, the range structure offers more ways to find value than a binary contract alone.
Size Down for Uncertainty
Mention markets carry a specific type of resolution risk that doesn't exist in most other prediction market categories — a transcription error, a disputed utterance, or an ambiguous plural can flip the outcome in ways that have nothing to do with your prediction.
Keep position sizes appropriately small relative to your conviction, and avoid markets where the resolution criteria are vague or where the verification source has a history of inconsistencies.
Prediction markets are an exciting way to trade on real-world outcomes, but it's important to stay in control of how you engage. Our Responsible Trading guide covers everything you need to trade safely – from setting deposit limits and taking trading breaks to recognizing warning signs and using self-exclusion tools when needed. If you or someone you know needs support, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-522-4700. Trade responsibly.
Mention markets are prediction market contracts that resolve based on whether a specific word, phrase, or term is spoken, posted, or included in a defined event or time window. Traders buy and sell contracts based on whether they believe the mention will occur, with prices reflecting the market's collective probability estimate.
Are mention markets legal?
+
In the US, mention markets traded on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US are legal. Polymarket's international platform operates outside CFTC jurisdiction. Legality varies by jurisdiction internationally. Always verify your local regulations before depositing funds on any prediction market platform.
Where can I trade mention markets?
+
Mention markets are available on Polymarket, Kalshi, OG.com, Robinhood Predictions, and Fanatics Markets, among others. Polymarket has the deepest liquidity and widest variety. Kalshi is the preferred option for U.S. traders seeking a fully CFTC-regulated environment. New platforms are entering the space regularly, so the competitive landscape continues to evolve.
How do mention markets resolve?
+
Mention markets resolve based on a specified official source, typically an official transcript, closed captioning data, broadcast recording, or platform-designated third-party verifier. The resolution source is published in the market's terms before trading opens. If the word or phrase meets the threshold in that source, "Yes" contracts resolve at $1. If it doesn't, "No" contracts resolve at $1.
What happens if the speaker says the word but the transcript doesn't include it?
+
In most cases, if the word does not appear in the designated resolution source (usually the official transcript), the market resolves based on the transcript — not the audio. This is one of the most important nuances of mention markets, and it's why reading the resolution criteria carefully is essential before entering a position. Platforms will note which source governs, and most do not allow appeals based on discrepancies between the recording and the transcript.
Does the plural or variant of a word count?
+
It depends entirely on the market's resolution criteria. Some markets specify that any variant of a root word counts (e.g., "inflat-" would capture both "inflation" and "inflationary"), while others require an exact match. Markets for common words often specify that only the exact listed phrase is counted. Check the individual market's rules before trading, and when in doubt, treat it as exact-match unless the criteria explicitly state otherwise.
What's the best strategy for mention markets?
+
The most reliable edge comes from combining base rate analysis (studying how often a speaker uses a word historically) with real-time topic salience monitoring (tracking the news cycle leading up to the event). Study official transcripts from prior comparable events to build a frequency model, then adjust based on what's in the news immediately before the event. This approach consistently outperforms intuition-based trading, especially in high-volume recurring markets like Fed press conferences and weekly presidential speech series.
Blake is a Senior Sports Betting Expert at RotoWire, covering all aspects of the gambling industry but specializing in the regulatory, legislative and nuts-and-bolts side. For over a decade, Blake has been at the forefront of the gambling industry on the editorial and consulting side, prominently covering the rapid expansion of sports betting since the repeal of PASPA in 2018.
In his own time (not there is much), Blake roots for his favorite teams the Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Capitals and Maryland Terrapins. You may also hear him touting his winning betslips on the NFL, MLB and NBA. For fantasy, his creed is taking RB back-to-back, but he still bears the shame of drafting CMC with the number 1 overall pick for the 2024 season, which resulted in perhaps one of the worst fantasy seasons in history. Outside of sports, he frequents the gym and the local golf courses.
@BlakeWeishaar