Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: World's Fastest Half-Mile

This weekend we return to the famous short track in Bristol, Tennessee for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The high-contact, short track action under the lights is one of the most popular races in the schedule. It's been a long, hard haul since race number eight of the season, which was the last time NASCAR's top division visited Thunder Valley. Since that time, we've seen Denny Hamlin win the regular season championship. We've seen Chase Briscoe rediscover victory lane at Chicago after a long dry spell. We've seen Shane van Gisbergen grab two victories on various road circuits. We've also seen first time Cup Series winners: Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Corey Heim and Ryan Preece cash in and grab victories. So, a lot has happened since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway. 

This visit to Bristol Motor Speedway will be different than the recent past. The late-summer Bristol race is no longer a part of the regular season schedule but now makes up the 10 events of the Cup Series Chase. This is the third race of the post-season format to determine the Cup Series champion. To stay alive in the championship picture, drivers simply have to grab as many points as they can and put some distance between themselves and the other drivers in the Chase playoff. That added urgency to stay alive will really crank up the pressure for this 500-lap battle. Tensions will be high and so will be the pressure to advance to the next race and stay in the battle for the 2026 championship.    

In preparing our fantasy race teams this week, we'll need to take a close look at the last 21 years at Bristol Motor Speedway in order to collect some recent data on the drivers. The loop stats from these 39 races will be very useful. This span will cover Bristol's recent history and should bear some great data. In forming this week's driver list we'll also pay some attention to current hot streaks. Drivers who raced well recently at Richmond should carry that momentum into the World's Fastest Half Mile this Saturday night. Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Bristol drivers, sorted by driver rating. 

This season's first race at Bristol Motor Speedway was in April of this year, it was the Food City 500. There were 37 cars on the track that day, but it would evolve into a two-driver battle very quickly. Hendrick Motorsports star Kyle Larson and Penske Racing star Ryan Blaney would do battle all day and dominate the lead in this 500-lap short track battle. However, it would be Ty Gibbs that would execute brilliant late-race pit strategy and upstage the two veterans to win in overtime on older tires. There were a handful of surprises in the finishing order that day. There was a plethora of caution flags (nine total) due to accidents or stage breaks over the 500 scheduled laps, so the racing would be somewhat broken up (average green-flag run 43.3 laps). The win would be Gibbs' first-career victory and first at Bristol Motor Speedway. A lot has changed in the manufacturer hierarchy since that race, so it will be interesting to see if Gibbs and Toyota can hold onto their grip of the Bristol oval or if the recently surging Chevrolet and Ford camps of drivers can supplant them at the top.

If we look back at the previous six races at Bristol, we see that Toyota and Chevrolet have dominated victory lane. Toyota has four wins, including the last two-straight and Chevrolet is checking in with two wins during that span. Ford hasn't won at Bristol since Chris Buescher's victory in this event in 2022 and is facing a long dry spell. With the Chase playoff field beginning to sort itself out, we're going to see a lot of contact and pushing this week. Manners will go out the window, and it will be a mad scramble to stay in contention in NASCAR's postseason. Let's take a look at the historical loop stats and recent hot streaks and see if we can clear up the picture and give you the drivers you need this weekend to conquer the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Thursday

Kyle Larson (+400) – Larson has won three Bristol races and two of the last four entering this weekend's action. Larson has seven Top-5 finishes in his last eight Bristol starts, including over 2,000-career laps led at the World's Fastest Half Mile. The Hendrick Motorsports star has 304 laps led and three Top-5 finishes this season on the circuit's short tracks, so the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is currently capable of pulling off a big performance. Coming off the big win at Gateway this past Sunday and ending a long, long victory lane dry spell, all eyes will be on the No. 5 Chevrolet team this weekend. Larson has the Bristol pedigree to dominate this Saturday night's short track battle.

Ryan Blaney (+550) – Bristol Motor Speedway has been an oval of gradual improvement for the Penske Racing star. Blaney has never won here but his runner-up finish here in the spring and 190 laps led were easily his best-career Bristol performance. That and other recent efforts at the Tennessee short track have boosted his Top-10 rate here to a respectable 47-percent. That puts this driver and team directly on our contender radar screen for Saturday night's Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Blaney has been a top short track performer this season with wins at Phoenix and Loudon, a staggering 71-percent Top-10 rate and strong 5.3 average finish on the small ovals. He'll be eager to run this Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Ty Gibbs (+600) – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been an impressive short track performer this season with two wins and an eye-popping 86-percent Top-10 rate. Bristol Motor Speedway is a bit of a different animal than most short tracks, but it's likely this driver's favorite small oval. Gibbs has loved this place ever since promoting to NASCAR's top division. He has five Top-10 finishes in his seven-career starts at the Tennessee short track. Gibbs pulled a master stroke of pit strategy in April's Food City 500 and came away with his first-career win at Bristol Motor Speedway. He has now led 465 laps and registered a strong 11.1 average finish at the track in his limited time racing here. Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team will be in the mix to win at the end of Saturday night.      

Denny Hamlin (+500) – With one pole and two runner-up finishes on short tracks already this season, Hamlin is poised to make a big splash at Bristol Motor Speedway this Saturday night. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a four-time Bristol winner and as recently as 2024. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 at a strong 34-percent rate and he's led over 1,200 laps for his career at this half-mile oval. He tends to step it up a notch for the events under the lights, so optimism in that trend should be even higher. The Joe Gibbs Racing star finished ninth-place in April's Food City 500 and collected his seventh Top 10 in the last eight Bristol races. With the championship Chase heating up, Hamlin is capable of a statement win this weekend in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Christopher Bell (+700) – Bell is coming off a disappointing finish at Gateway and looking to rebound at Bristol Motor Speedway. He's battled through some inconsistency of late but still brings good fantasy racing value to the table. Bell will now sharpen his focus on a Bristol short track that has given him some good performances in his brief NASCAR career. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has six Top 10's in his last seven starts at BMS and that includes his victory in this event one year ago. Bell is having a very good season on the short tracks with two runner-up finishes and five Top 10's (71-percent). That works out to a strong 9.7 average finish on the Cup Series bull rings.       

Chase Briscoe (+1100) – The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has yet to make a huge mark on Bristol Motor Speedway, but Briscoe does have a nice four-race Bristol Top-10 streak entering this weekend. That could foreshadow a big performance this Saturday night under the lights for the No. 19 Toyota team. Briscoe has three Top-5 finishes, including a runner-up finish at Richmond recently. With a 57-percent Top-10 rate on the small ovals this season, this driver and team have been pretty consistent. The 13.3 average finish on short tracks speaks to that consistency. Now sporting a career 50-percent Top-10 rate at Bristol, Briscoe has to be considered a solid play for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Joey Logano (+1200) – The season started pretty shaky for Logano but he's since gathered things up and started to perform better. The Penske Racing star has been exceptional on short tracks with wins at both North Wilkesboro and Richmond and now he sets his sights on Bristol Motor Speedway. Logano is coming off a strong third-place at Gateway as "Mr. Playoff" again understands what time of year we have entered. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been strong in his last two Bristol outings with fifth- and seventh-place finishes. Logano is a two-time Bristol winner and has 12-career Top 10's at the World's Fastest Half Mile.          

Carson Hocevar (+2800) – Hocevar has just six Cup Series starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, but he's been progressing well here in his development. The Spire Motorsports youngster has grabbed finishes of 11th-, seventh- and 10th-place in his last three starts. That has increased his Top-10 rate at BMS to 33-percent and lowered his average finish to 14.0. The improvement is real. Hocevar has been a bit of a mixed performer on the short tracks this season. He's been much better on the intermediate and larger ovals. However, the driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet is coming off 11th- and eighth-place runs the past two weeks at Darlington and Gateway. Hocevar is riding some good momentum into a short track that has recently rewarded him.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Bristol & Solid Upside

Chase Elliott (+2000) – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been an up-and-down performer on the small ovals this season so we've decided to slot him in the sleepers list this round as a driver with potential but also some risk. Elliott won earlier this season at the Martinsville short track but he only has two Top 10's thus far in 2026 on the bull ring circuit. That 29-percent Top-10 rate is lower than we like to see. However, Elliott's Bristol Motor Speedway history is pretty sound. His five Top-5 and nine Top-10 (50-percent) finishes are not to be discounted in any way. The 13.3 average finish is among the upper tier of drivers in the Cup Series at this track. Proceed with caution.       

Alex Bowman (+3500) – Bowman's time with Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 48 Chevrolet team may be winding down as he looks to his post-2027 retirement, but he's doing his best to go out with bang. Three of his last five races have yielded Top 10's including a runner-up finish this past weekend at Gateway. It was his best finish in an otherwise uneven season. Bowman's last two short track efforts have been reasonable 10th- and 15th-place finishes at Richmond and Loudon. Those are good indicators for Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Bowman's Bristol resume isn't overly inspiring (33-percent Top-10 rate) but he has Top 10's in three of his last five (60-percent) starts at the World's Fastest Half Mile.

Ross Chastain (+3500) – The Trackhouse Racing veteran is looking to get his inconsistent season on track and his fifth-place finish at Gateway this past weekend grabbed our attention. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet led 15 laps and turned in his best performance of the summer in the Enjoy Illinois 300. Chastain's best tracks in this up-and-down season have been the short tracks and superspeedways. Recent seventh- and 12th-place finishes at Iowa and Richmond bear witness to this fact. Bristol Motor Speedway has never been a track of great success for Chastain. He has just three Top-10 finishes here in 12-career starts. However, two of those three efforts have come in just the last four events at BMS. We believe he has steady sleeper potential this Saturday night under the lights.    

Ryan Preece (+5500) – The short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 60 Ford. Preece has collected three Top 10's for a 43-percent Top-10 rate and 12.7 average finish on the ovals one-mile in size and less this season. Those are steady, impressive stats for the 2026 campaign. Last time out, Preece led 17 laps and finished a strong ninth-place at Loudon in late-August. That's a good last look heading to Bristol Motor Speedway. Preece sports a steady 14.8 average finish at this half-mile oval and he has taken away Top 10's in two of his last four starts here. For a steady 14.0 average finish in that recent four-race span. He registered a strong eighth-place finish here in the spring and those setup notes will come in handy for this weekend.   

Tyler Reddick (+1800) – Reddick has been an inconsistent performer on the short tracks this season, but they're have been some highlights along the way. An eighth-place finish at Phoenix to kick off the short track season, Top-5 Bristol finish earlier in the spring and a recent eighth-place finish at Loudon a few weeks ago. The 43-percent Top-10 rate at these small tracks are above his norm and good sign returning to Bristol this weekend. Reddick is thick in the battle for the championship and needs a good performance at BMS after his Gateway flop last Sunday. The good news is that the 23XI Racing star started on the outside pole at Bristol back in April and finished a career-best fourth-place at the track.

Bubba Wallace (+4000) – The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has been a reasonably good short track performer this season. Wallace has a 43-percent Top-10 rate and 13.3 average finish on the bull rings in 2026. His most recent outing was his best. Wallace drove from 23rd-place on the starting grid to finish runner-up at Loudon a few weeks ago. Wallace made a strong challenge for the win in that event. Bristol Motor Speedway has been a track of ups-and-downs for this driver and team but two of his last four starts have netted third- and 11th-place finishes. Wallace has been greatly improved at the Bristol short track since 2023 and that stands in direct contrast to his first five seasons of racing at this oval.

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

William Byron (+1100) – Byron has been a bit inconsistent on the short tracks in 2026, so we've slotted him in the slow down list this week. A 30th-place disappointment last time out at Loudon for what was shaping up to be a much better finish is part of that reasoning. Bristol Motor Speedway has held marginal success for the veteran driver with no victories and a modest 35-percent Top-10 rate. Byron labored to a disappointing 30th-place finish in April's Food City 500 at BMS and that was his last effort at the small oval. The 17.1 average finish for his career at this track stands well above what we expect for "A" tier drivers to be fantasy worthy. Byron has much better short tracks in his Cup Series resume.  

Austin Cindric (+4500) – The driver of the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford has been a modest performer on the series' short tracks this year. Two Top 10's and four Top 15's is all Cindric has been able to muster for a subpar 16.6 average finish on these tracks. Short tracks have always been Cindric's weakness. He's always performed better on superspeedways and road circuits. Bristol Motor Speedway in particular has been a puzzle for Cindric and this race team. In seven-career starts he's only scratched the Top 15 once and finished outside the Top 20 four times. The 22.7 average finish leaves a lot to be desired. Despite some decent performance from Cindric of late we're calling for the fade in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.  

Daniel Suarez (+10000) – With 16-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, Suarez has more experience than the average driver. However, success has been slow to come for the Spire Motorsports veteran. He has just two Top-10 finishes in those 16 starts (13-percent) and his average finish stands at 19.7. Three of his last four starts at the Bristol oval have resulted in finishes outside the Top 30. Those have put a real damper on his average finish figure. Short tracks have been an uphill climb for this driver and team in 2026. Suarez has just one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in seven starts on ovals one-mile in size or less. The 18.1 average finish stands pretty close to his Bristol average. We believe in benching the No. 7 Chevrolet team this weekend. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+25000) – Aside from a 2014 to 2018 hot streak at Bristol Motor Speedway, Stenhouse has struggled for much of his career at the Tennessee short track. With seven Top 10's in 24-career starts, his Top-10 rate stands at 29-percent. He's cracked the Top 10 just once in his last 13 Bristol starts, which is a rate well below his career average. Stenhouse is much more well know for his superspeedway success and some success on intermediate ovals. This season's short track statistics bear this fact out. In seven starts on the NASCAR bull rings, Stenhouse has managed just two Top-20 finishes and an inflated 25.7 average finish. His start earlier this season at Bristol was a subpar 17th-place finish.