Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: The Chase Begins

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from the three-wide racing action of Daytona, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday evening can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

The second Darlington race of the season has recently been held as last race of the regular season and the cut event to qualify for the Cup Series playoffs. However, NASCAR shook up the schedule and has moved this thrilling night race back to its usual spot as the event to kick off the Cup Series playoffs. The urgency to qualify for the playoffs has been replaced with the urgency to start the playoffs well and to get a good start on the 10-race schedule that determines the NASCAR champion. You'll see some risks taken, but you'll also see some measured racing as the field vying for the title will not want to eliminate themselves in the opening race. A win is a big boost to your championship hopes so you will see some gambles, potentially in the race/pit strategy department. Grabbing a win at Darlington can mean a ticket deep into the Chase.    

Figuring out our driver group this weekend won't be too much of a challenge. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true. We have already raced once at Darlington earlier this season, so we have very good and very recent data to examine. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 21 years or 29 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last six races at the South Carolina oval. Toyota's victory here earlier in the season extended their Darlington win streak to three races for that manufacturer at the egg-shaped track. Chevrolet drivers have had the least success at the facility in the last three seasons. Ford drivers swept the two Darlington events in 2024, so the blue oval brand will be on the comeback path to get back into victory lane at the Track Too Tough to Tame this weekend.   

The 2026 season has seen a lot of parity among the different manufacturers and there have been some momentum swings throughout. Ford drivers have won the last three races, so they are under heavy scrutiny for the start of the Chase. Darlington would seem to be up for grabs this Sunday but it appears the blue oval brand have the inside track for the moment. Tyler Reddick took Toyota to victory lane at Darlington in March of this year and extended that brand's current win streak to three races at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The race would feature only 16 lead changes as Brad Keselowski and Reddick would dominate most of the event. However, it would be Reddick that would rise to the occasion late in the race to take the win. The prior two Darlington events had gone to Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe for Toyota. Considering that Ford and Toyota drivers have controlled Darlington Raceway of late, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet can climb back into the Darlington picture with the Chase getting underway. Outlined below are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Thursday

Tyler Reddick (+550) – Outside of the road circuits, it's been an inconsistent season for Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team. However, he has still managed to maintain a very high level of performance on the intermediate and larger ovals. He claimed a win at Kansas and runner-up finish at Pocono earlier this season. Reddick was a strong third-place finisher at Daytona this past week. Darlington Raceway has yielded a win earlier this season, three runner-up finishes and six Top-5 finishes (43-percent) as well as nearly 400 laps led to this veteran driver. Reddick qualifies very well here and the high-line groove racing appeals to his abilities. The 23XI Racing star has a win and runner-up finish in his last two starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Denny Hamlin (+500) – Hamlin has had an inconsistent season, but he's still managed to scratch the win column four times in the regular season. He's always dangerous at his best tracks and we expect him to be at Darlington Raceway Sunday night. Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with five wins and 20 Top-10 finishes in 28-career starts. That works out to a stellar 71-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval. With over 1,000 laps led in 28-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame. He won at the egg-shaped oval in the 2025 season and that indicates he's far from finished collecting hardware at this track. Hamlin is always a threat to win at Darlington Raceway. 

Ryan Blaney (+850) – Darlington Raceway has always been a track with issues for Blaney. His career numbers here are less than desirable. However, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has started to improve those trends in his last few starts at the South Carolina raceway. With two Top-5 finishes in his last three Darlington starts, Blaney is well ahead of his career averages here in his most recent sampling. In March he collected a Darlington career-best third-place in the Goodyear 400. Coming off the disappointment at Daytona this past week and looking to start his Chase with a bang, we believe Blaney could be one of the sneaky-good drivers this Sunday night and totally buck his historical reputation at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Chase Briscoe (+650) – Briscoe won this event one year ago and that was his second victory at Darlington in his last four trips to the South Carolina oval. He brings that potential into this Sunday's first race of the Chase. Although Briscoe had a tough outing there in March of this year and finished a subpar 12th-place. The No. 19 Toyota team is in a much better place now than they were in the early Spring. With a win at Chicago and Top-5 finish at Indianapolis since early-July, Briscoe has turned this team into a dangerous group heading into NASCAR's postseason. We expect to see a great qualifying effort and stiff challenge for the win from this driver and team at Darlington Raceway.  

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

William Byron (+1000) – Byron has been a sharp instrument on the intermediate sized and larger ovals this season and that's a stat that's difficult to write off as we're about to head into the Chase. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has grabbed Top-5 finishes at tracks like Pocono and Chicago recently. Darlington is a bit different animal compared to the other mid-sized tracks on the circuit. The high-line racing groove is a bit of a wrinkle. However, Byron won here in 2023 and he dominated at the Track Too Tough to Tame to finish runner-up in 2025. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet led 243 of the 297 laps and finished runner-up to Denny Hamlin in the Goodyear 400. He finished a strong eighth-place in March of this year at Darlington Raceway.

Christopher Bell (+1000) – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota hasn't enjoyed career-long success at Darlington Raceway. However, recent starts have given us some glimpse of potential for Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Bell nabbed the pole position in this event in 2023 and led 40 laps before fading to 23rd-place. His speed and performance here have improved over the last three seasons. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has a pair of third-place finishes in his last four starts at the Darlington oval. Bell has been strong on the mid-sized and larger ovals this season with four runner-up finishes during the summer, including a string of three-straight at Chicago, Atlanta and Indianapolis. He's a diver to watch closely in this Cook Out Southern 500.   

Brad Keselowski (+2500) – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is a top Darlington Performer with two wins and 13 Top-10 finishes which work out to a solid 11.7 average finish at the egg-shaped track. His win in 2024's Goodyear 400 made Keselowski a two-time winner at the Track Too Tough to Tame and boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to 52-percent. In March's Goodyear 400, Keselowski led a dominant 142 laps and finished runner-up in at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Intermediate and larger ovals have been an issue for the driver of the No. 6 Ford this season, but Keselowski looked much improved recently at both Indianapolis (sixth) and Daytona (14th). He brings a very high ceiling of potential into Sunday's first race of the Chase in South Carolina.    

Chris Buescher (+2200) – Buescher has had a decent season and is ranked 10th in the Chase standings coming into our first race of NASCAR's post-season. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has recent Top 10's at larger ovals Atlanta and Indianapolis, so the momentum is good coming to South Carolina. Buescher has just eight-career Top-10 finishes at Darlington Raceway, but the good news is that they've all come since the 2021 season. In fact, he rides a four race Top-10 streak at the Track Too Tough to Tame into Sunday's action. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has a lot of momentum right now and he had a strong car earlier this year at Darlington (41 laps led and ninth-place). Buescher makes a tempting choice in weekly lineup leagues this Sunday evening.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Darlington & Solid Upside

Kyle Larson (+700) – Larson has had some recent tough outings at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but they've also been mixed in with some brilliant performances. There's no mistaking that he loves the high line racing action of this oval as his win in this event three seasons ago attests. It really suits his driving preference. Larson has over 1,000 laps led in just 17 starts at Darlington Raceway and his nine Top-10 finishes check in at a strong 53-percent rate. He ran into quite a bit of trouble here earlier this spring but also led 20 laps and qualified on the second row. Larson's career average finish at this track has climbed due to some tough outings at Darlington recently, but the Hendrick Motorsports driver still brings big potential into the Cook Out Southern 500.     

Ty Gibbs (+1400) – The young driver will get the benefit of being a Joe Gibbs Racing driver this weekend. Darlington of late has been an up-tick track for this Toyota camp. Gibbs has just a 38-percent Top-10 rate at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but his three-career Top 10's at this track have come in the last five starts (60-percent). Those performance have lowered Gibbs' average finish at Darlington Raceway to a steady 13.9. In the race earlier this season in South Carolina, the driver of the No. 54 Toyota had no trouble racing from the back of the starting field to a strong sixth-place finish in the Goodyear 400. Gibbs has that potential this Sunday night.

Chase Elliott (+1800) – Elliott has been a steady, but unspectacular performer over the years at Darlington Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but Elliott has Top 10's in three of his last seven visits to South Carolina and he has a 10.6 average finish during this recent span. That has boosted his Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway to a respectable 42-pecent. It has taken Elliott some time to figure this track out (19 starts) but it's clear he's becoming more comfortable here. He knows a victory here is highly unlikely, but a Top-10 finish would do wonders for the No. 9 team in kicking off their Chase run.    

Ross Chastain (+2800) – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has overcome a lot of early-career struggles at Darlington Raceway to actually become a strong performer at this egg-shaped oval. Chastain has three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last six starts at Darlington and that has helped boost his Top-10 rate at the track to 29-percent. Chastain's average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame still needs some work at 16.9, but it's clear that the veteran driver has finally figured this place out and is now posting great finishes. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has been a tough luck performer on the intermediate and larger ovals this season, however, recent strong performances at Pocono and Atlanta have given some much needed optimism for this weekend.     

Erik Jones (+3000) – The LEGACY Motor Club driver has been a career-long performer at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Jones is a two-time winner at Darlington Raceway and his 10-career Top-10 finishes in 17 starts check in at a strong 59-percent rate. He piloted the team's No. 43 Toyota to a strong 10th-place finish in March's Goodyear 400. The career 12.6 average finish ranks Jones among the top performing drivers in the series at the Darlington oval. The veteran driver has been a mediocre performer this season on the intermediate and larger ovals, but his excellence at Darlington cannot be overlooked or sold short. Recent Top 10's for Jones at Pocono and Atlanta are good signs heading into the Cook Out Southern 500.   

Carson Hocevar (+3000) – The bigger ovals have been happy hunting grounds for the Spire Motorsports youngster. Hocevar nabbed a win in the spring at Talladega and recent third- and ninth-place finishes at Atlanta and Indianapolis. That type of potential is what he brings to Darlington Raceway. The driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet has six-career starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but his best results at the oval have come in the past year. Hocevar raced to a strong ninth-place finish in this event one year ago, but that was just the beginning. He returned to Darlington in March of this year and turned in an impressive fourth-place finish in the Goodyear 400. Hocevar has big potential this Sunday night.    

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Joey Logano (+1400) – Logano has had some tough luck of late, so we're downgrading him to the slow down list this week. He certainly has potential to do well in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Darlington Raceway has been a mediocre track over the years for the driver of the No. 22 Ford. Despite being a one-time Darlington winner, he's only cracked the Top 10 once here in the last seven races. That has pulled his career Top-10 rate at the Track Too Tough to Tame down to 44-percent. Given how Logano performed here in the spring and how he's racing at the moment, we believe he'll be mired back in the lower-to-middle 20's of this field when the checkered flag waves. He doesn't bring "A" tier value to the Cook Out Southern 500.   

Shane van Gisbergen (+8000) – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been up-and-down this season on the mid-sized and bigger ovals. Van Gisbergen has just one Top 10 this year on these style ovals and a disappointing 22.0 average finish. That's likely a bit of foreshadowing of what to expect at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Van Gisbergen has four starts at Darlington with just one Top 15 in those efforts. The average finish at the facility is coming in at 23.0. The odds seem fairly tall for this driver and team in the Cook Out Southern 500. Van Gisbergen is a driver to pass up on in weekly lineup and salary cap based fantasy racing leagues.   

Alex Bowman (+6500) – Bowman bucked his recent struggles with a steady eighth-place finish at Daytona this past weekend, but we're calling for the fade coming to Darlington this Sunday night. The Track Too Tough to Tame has been pretty stingy with the Hendrick Motorsports veteran. In 16-career starts Bowman has only nabbed four Top 10's (25-percent) and he has cracked the Top 10 there in his last three attempts. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has a 20.5 average finish at Darlington in those 16 starts so that's a pretty big sample size. Overwhelming struggles have saddled Bowman with disappointing 35th- and 31st-place finishes in his last two Darlington starts.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+35000) – Among full-time drivers, Stenhouse has some of the worst statistics at Darlington Raceway. The HYAK Motorsports driver has made 21 Cup Series starts at the South Carolina raceway and has just one Top-10 finish to show for (5-percent). The average finish is coming in around 23.3 which mirrors his last start at the egg-shaped oval. Stenhouse struggled to a 29th-place finish in March's Goodyear 400. Interestingly, that extended his Top-20 drought at the oval to five races. He's had some trouble staying on the lead lap at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet has only finished on the lead lap once in his last four starts at Darlington Raceway. There are better fantasy racing options among the field this week.