Hollywood Casino 400 Preview: Chase Intensifies

This week the Chase for the NASCAR Cup will pick up the intensity. For the 16 drivers in the playoff field the pressure continues to increase and so do the stakes. This Sunday we travel to Kansas Speedway and take the next steps in determining this season's champion. This is the fourth race of the Chase playoffs. Getting a good finish in this event is likely a key for many drivers in their hopes of staying in contention for this season's championship. We currently have the Top 10 drivers separated by just 92 points, so now is the time for big performances and upsets to keep one in the hunt for the 2026 crown.

For this fourth race in NASCAR's postseason, the series pays its second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway just outside Kansas City for the Hollywood Casino 400. When we think of the Kansas oval we think of the many intermediate ovals on the circuit.  This oval may not be exactly like Charlotte, Texas or Atlanta, but it could easily be the most important oval regarding the Cup Series championship by the time we reach Homestead in November. As we visit the 1.5-mile oval in Kansas this weekend the schedule offers up a huge advantage to fantasy racing players and the drivers alike, as it was only just April of this year that the stars of NASCAR were locked in combat at this intermediate oval. The data from that race, the AdventHealth 400, will be fresh and applicable to the field for this weekend's Hollywood Casino 400. 

Since we're making our second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval. These numbers will be even more important than normal and even more relevant given that we've seen a lot of repeat winners at this facility. As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series are making a very important start at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 36 races at Kansas Speedway.

The race earlier this year at Kansas Speedway was very entertaining. Denny Hamlin would put on an absolute dominate display and lead 131 laps. However, it would be Tyler Reddick that would rise late and defeat Kyle Larson in overtime to capture the win. Considering how Reddick's Chase has gone to this point, this is a very timely visit for the No. 45 Toyota team to the track in Kansas. This race could kickstart his momentum and get him rolling downhill towards the championship in Homestead. Chase Briscoe and Bubba Wallace also had a strong presence at the front in the AdventHealth 400. The current streaking drivers and strong performers at Kansas Speedway appear to be a converging group this weekend. However, with the Chase now well underway there will be many suitors for victory lane at Kansas for this important playoff win. 

Despite his victory two weeks ago at Gateway, Larson has been an uneven performer at times this season and he hasn't had the best campaign in 2026. However, we get the sense that the No. 5 Chevrolet team is heating up at the right time. After an impressive runner-up performance at Bristol this past Saturday night, he's looking to right the ship for a push deeper into the playoffs and a strong claim to this season's championship. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is coming back to Kansas Speedway at the right time seeking redemption and rejuvenation. For a handful of other hopefuls, it's another opportunity to win this weekend and keep their championship hopes alive or build momentum for next season. With championship implications weighing heavily, we expect to see some real urgency in the racing, and some rebound performances for drivers that got roughed up in the frantic racing at Bristol Motor Speedway this past weekend. We'll highlight the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon and the ones you need to avoid in order to dominate the day at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Thursday

Kyle Larson (+400) – Larson has won and finished runner-up in the last two races and rides a three-race Top-5 streak into Kanas this weekend. That should make everyone in the field nervous as the Hendrick Motorsports star is reacting to the urgency of the Chase and upping his game. Larson has been zeroed-in on this track in recent visits. He has won or finished runner-up in three of the last five Kansas Speedway events and he's led a combined 300 laps in his last three races at this intermediate oval. Larson's start here in April of this year yielded a dominant performance, 78 laps led and a strong runner-up finish in the AdventHealth 400. With major stakes on the line, Larson should be a top contender to win the Hollywood Casino 400.     

Joey Logano (+1800) – The Penske Racing star grabbed the win at Bristol Motor Speedway this past weekend and is doing his usual "turning things up a notch" during the playoffs. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has three-career victories at Kansas Speedway and over 500 laps led. His 38-percent Top-10 rate here is a bit disappointing, but Logano knows how to race up front here and win. Intermediate ovals in general have been similar for Logano in 2026. He has only two Top-10 finishes (29-percent) on the mid-sized ovals this season but they've come in his last three starts on mid-sized ovals. The way the No. 22 Ford team is running right now, you want to give careful consideration to Logano in your fantasy lineups this Sunday afternoon.  

Christopher Bell (+550) – Bell has never won at Kansas Speedway, but he's been inching ever closer with each visit. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has won four pole positions at the mid-sized oval, including a string of three in-a-row from 2023 to 2024. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has led 287 combined laps for his career at Kansas and claimed nine Top-10 finishes in those 13 starts (69-percent). Bell has finished an extraordinary runner-up in his last three-straight intermediate oval races (Charlotte, Chicago and Atlanta). With the Chase well underway and championship implications on the line, we expect the best out of this driver and team. This could be the weekend where Bell breaks through for his first Kansas win.    

Denny Hamlin (+400) – After an inconsistent season, Hamlin appears to be getting his act together as we head deeper into the Chase. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has grabbed Top 10's in the last two events and now he's searching for a playoff victory. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Kansas with four total and he also has well over 800 laps led at this facility, much of which has come since the 2019 season. His career totals and averages aren't the greatest and they may cause some to pass on Hamlin this weekend, but that would be a mistake. Much of Hamlin's success at Kansas Speedway has come in just the last seven seasons. With the elusive Cup Series championship hanging in the balance, Hamlin could be a spoiler in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Ryan Blaney (+850) – The Penske Racing youngster struggled earlier in his career at this intermediate oval. Kanas Speedway has only yielded nine Top 10's to Blaney in 23 starts (38-percent) but he's turned the corner at this oval in recent visits. Blaney has nabbed two Top 10's in his last four visits to Kansas Speedway. Those two Top-10 performances have lowered his career average finish here to 15.6 and signaled that he is now a contender to crack the Top 10 at Kansas Speedway. With his win at the similar Atlanta oval earlier this season, and his 71-percent Top-10 rate on mid-sized ovals, Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team have to be considered top performers at the Kansas oval.

Chase Briscoe (+1000) – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is coming off a couple tough finishes at Gateway and Bristol and looking for better results in Kansas. Briscoe has been a top intermediate oval performer this season. He has a win (Chicago) and runner-up finish (Atlanta) and a sound 57-percent Top-10 rate on the mid-sized tracks. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota doesn't have eye-popping Kansas Speedway stats. However, he rides a three-race Kansas Top-5 streak into this weekend's action. Briscoe turned in a Kansas career-best third-place finish in April's AdventHealth 400. The notes from that performance will come in handy this Sunday afternoon.

William Byron (+1600) – Byron has put together a modest two-race Top-10 streak coming to Kansas Speedway this weekend and looking to get better each week. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been very consistent on the intermediate ovals this season. Byron has collected five Top-10 finishes for a strong 71-percent rate. The 10.7 average finish for the season on these size ovals speaks volumes. Kansas Speedway has been a good track for the Hendrick Motorsports star. Byron owns 10-career Top 10's here for a strong 59-percent rate. Three of his last four visits to the Kansas oval have yielded Top-10 finishes. He finished a steady seventh-place in April's AdventHealth 400.   

Alex Bowman (+6000) – Bowman is outside of the Chase but looking for good finishes down the stretch coming to Kansas Speedway this weekend. The veteran driver has grabbed three Top 10's in the last six races and he's been heating up as the season winds down. Bowman has 21-career Cup Series starts at this 1.5-mile oval and he's fetched 11 Top 10's for a strong 52-percent rate. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been inconsistent on intermediate ovals this season with just a 33-percent Top-10 rate and 14.7 average finish. However, this driver and team are heating up down the stretch. Bowman should be a face among the Top 10 in Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Kansas & Solid Upside

Tyler Reddick (+600) – Reddick has been an absolute ace on the mid-sized ovals this year. The 23XI Racing star has two victories and five Top-10 finishes (71-percent) on the intermediate ovals. He was the victor in April's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway. That was Reddick's second-career win at this facility and his 43-percent Top-10 rate at this oval isn't too bad. The Chase has not gone the best for his thus far, so we're slotting Reddick in the sleepers list this round. However, the urgency to stay in the championship hunt will be a powerful motivator for this driver and team this Sunday afternoon at Kansas.

Ty Gibbs (+1000) – The driver of the No. 54 Toyota is coming off a strong fifth-place finish at Bristol and looking to continue staying in this season's championship hunt. Gibbs has been a steady performer on the cookie cutter ovals this season with two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a steady 15.0 average finish. He has collected Top 10's in his last three-straight intermediate oval races. Gibbs has just two Top 10's in eight starts at Kansas Speedway but those finishes have come in just his last four trips to the oval. It shows progress, improvement and the fact that Gibbs is figuring this oval out. He's a good Top-10 bet in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400.  

Bubba Wallace (+1400) – With Top 10's in two of the first three Chase races, Wallace is doing everything to stay alive in the championship battle. While he's a bit further back in the points than most drivers, he is clinging to a slim hope. The 23XI Racing veteran has been good on intermediate ovals this season with five Top 10's in seven starts. That 71-percent Top-10 rate is hard to overlook for the No. 45 Toyota team. Wallace is a one-time winner at the Kansas oval (2022) and he's racked up nice Top-5 finishes in his last two starts at Kansas Speedway. The notes from his fifth-place finish in April will come in handy for Sunday's Chase battle.    

Chase Elliott (+1600) – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has wonderful career-long stats at the Kansas Speedway track. Elliott is a two-time winner here and his 14 Top-10 finishes in 21 starts slots at a strong 67-percent rate. The 9.8 average finish for this driver and team at the Kansas oval is impeccable. However, intermediate ovals have not been his best tracks in 2026. We're slotting Elliott in the sleepers list for this reason this week. He's only converted 43-percent on his mid-sized oval starts into Top 10's this season and his last two efforts have been 13th- and 11th-place finishes at Chicago and Atlanta. History at Kansas Speedway is top notch, but his current level of performance on these ovals gives us caution.  

Chris Buescher (+2500) – Buescher has never been a top performer at Kansas Speedway, but he flirted with his first-career victory at the track in the 2024 AdventHealth 400. He led 53 laps and was in great position late before Kyle Larson foiled his win in overtime. That runner-up finish was just one of six Top 10's for Buescher in 21 starts at Kanas Speedway. But most of those have come since the 2021 season, and he rides a string of 11th-, eighth-, 15th- and 10th-place finish at Kansas since that performance. Buescher has been consistent on the intermediate ovals this season with a sound 57-percent Top-10 rate. We believe this veteran driver has this track zeroed-in and he should continue to fetch good finishes.

Carson Hocevar (+2500) – Coming off 11th-, eighth- and third-place finishes the last three weeks, Hocevar is on a good streak coming to Kansas Speedway. The Spire Motorsports youngster has been a decent performer on the intermediate ovals this season with a 43-percent Top-10 rate and respectable 13.4 average finish. Kansas Speedway has yet to provide him with much in the way of results with just six starts to this point. However, the race earlier this season at the oval yielded a Kansas career-best 13th-place finish to Hocevar. The notes from that performance in the AdventHealth 400 will pay big dividends for Hocevar this weekend.

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Brad Keselowski (+3000) – Keselowski is a two-time Kansas winner and he's led well over 350 laps for his career at this 1.5-mile oval. His 16-career Top-10 finishes at the track work out to a reasonable 49-percent rate. However, the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has had a dubious season on the cookie cutter ovals. Keselowski has registered just two Top-10 finishes on these size tracks for a lowly 29-percent Top-10 rate and 15.4 average finish. His most recent outings in particular have been troubling. Finishes of 21st- and 26th-place at Chicago and Atlanta have us questioning his potential in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Michael McDowell (+25000) – Intermediate ovals have been an inconsistent affair for the driver of the No. 71 Chevrolet. McDowell has struggled to just two Top-15 finishes in seven starts on these size tracks and a disappointing 23.6 average finish. McDowell has a whopping 30-career Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway but just one Top-10 finish in those efforts and an inflated 26.6 average finish. The current level of performance and track specific history both speak against the Spire Motorsports veteran this weekend. McDowell finished a disappointing 34th-place in April's AdventHealth 400 and that was his last look at the track in Kansas.    

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+30000) – In 27-career starts at the Kansas oval, Stenhouse has grabbed only one Top-10 finish and that came back in 2022. Since then, he's resumed his career-long struggles at this mid-sized oval. The HYAK Motorsports veteran has a 20.6 average finish at this facility and that tracks with his last outing at Kansas in April when he finished 21st-place in the AdventHealth 400. Intermediate ovals have been a real struggle for Stenhouse in 2026. He has no Top 10's in seven starts on the mid-sized track and a disappointing 23.7 average finish. It's best to keep Stenhouse benched until the Talladega race and then consider him for fantasy deployment that weekend.       

Shane van Gisbergen (+12000) – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has had a tough second half of this season. Van Gisbergen was tracking towards a Chase berth until he fell into a slump during the mid-summer part of the schedule. He has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last eight races and he's slid from 14th in the driver standings to 17th-place during that time. Intermediate ovals have been inconsistent for him and his 29-percent Top-10 rate and 19.6 average finish indicate this fact. Kansas Speedway has only hosted van Gisbergen three times to this point. He has one Top 10 in those starts, but the other two have been very forgettable. Van Gisbergen finished 36th-place, 4 laps down to the leaders in April's AdventHealth 400.