South Point 400 Preview: Return to Sin City

Race No. 5 of the Chase is on tap this weekend. NASCAR had recently used the date at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to kick off the Cup Series playoffs, but six seasons ago they moved it to deeper into the Chase. The stars of NASCAR will head to Sin City and Las Vegas for the South Point 400 and to continue the ongoing battle to determine this season's Cup Series champion.

This will be the second visit of 2026 to the Las Vegas oval. We will have good data from that event earlier in the season to look back on, and we'll take full advantage of it. We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend. Firstly, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Las Vegas. Secondly, we'll need to take a look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season. The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine. Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in mid-March. The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.

LVMS is one of many intermediate ovals on the circuit, so we have lots of data to fall back on at this point in the season. Since NASCAR's top division raced earlier this season at the Vegas oval, we'll get the opportunity to look back on the race earlier this year with a discriminating eye. Considering that historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 21 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 29 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway had been a track of parity for much of its history. We've seen different racing camps and different manufacturers dominate at the Nevada oval in the past. Toyota, however, seems to have risen above the fray. Drivers from this manufacturer have won the last two Las Vegas races and have halted Ford's two-win run at the desert oval. That trend is one we need to pay attention to this weekend.

In March the NASCAR Cup Series visited the Nevada desert and Denny Hamlin rolled into victory lane for the second consecutive time at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. With Hamlin picking up that victory, Toyota  remained squarely atop the heap at LVMS. However, before we cede the trophy to a Toyota driver this weekend, we need to realize that contenders will come from several different stables for Sunday's race. Chevrolet hasn't won at the Nevada oval since 2024, but we enter the weekend with a red-hot Kyle Larson that teases that possibility. Ford won the two previous Las Vegas races prior to Hamlin's current two-race win streak. Joey Logano and Josh Berry are due credit for those wins. Can Ford pull the upset this weekend? We'll soon find out. Sunday's Chase battle is shaping up to be a showdown between all three manufacturers, with the heavy odds tilting Larson's way. Here are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this Sunday afternoon's South Point 400. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Thursday

Kyle Larson (+350) – Larson is on fire coming into Las Vegas. A winless season until three races ago has now yielded two victories and a runner-up finish in the last three events. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet hasn't been quite as strong on cookie cutter ovals this season, but he did register a dominant victory at Kansas Speedway last weekend. Larson is a three-time Las Vegas winner having won all three since the 2021 season in addition to his five-career runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 75-percent Top-10 rate and 8.9 average finish at LVMS is a jaw-dropping statistic and really shows his consistency and excellence at this track. This is a race that could further propel Larson towards the championship at Homestead.   

Christopher Bell (+500) – Bell's sixth-place finish at Kansas this past weekend has put him in prime position to be racing for the championship down the stretch of the Chase. He rides a two-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. For his follow-up act we have Las Vegas Motor Speedway up next and what should be another strong performance for the No. 20 Toyota team. The young driver won the pole position, led 31 laps and finished a strong fourth-place at Vegas in March. Bell has two-career runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, 279 laps led and he cracks the Top 5 here at a strong 39-percent rate. With the championship within reach, we should see a very motivated Bell and No. 20 Toyota team this weekend.

Ryan Blaney (+1000) – Blaney has a good career record at LVMS. The Penske Racing star has posted six Top 5's and 10 Top 10's for respective 30- and 50-percent rates. He's never won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but Blaney has been incredibly consistent. The 15.2 average finish spread over 20 starts is a bit higher than we like to see, but not a determent to his chances to win. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has had some strong results on the cookie cutter ovals this season with one win and six Top 10's (75-percent) as well as 10.0 average finish. Blaney's fifth-place at Kansas this past week is a good comparison. With the 2026 championship on the line, it would not be surprising at all to see this driver and team elevate their game in the South Point 400.

Denny Hamlin (+400) – Hamlin is currently second in the Chase standings, but he's got some work to do if he plans to win his first-ever Cup Series championship. He'll look to up the level of performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. Intermediate ovals have been a sweet spot for the No. 11 Toyota team this season with one win, six Top-5 finishes and a stellar 5.1 average finish. LVMS is not one of his better cookie cutter tracks, but he's come on strong there in recent performances. Hamlin is a three-time Vegas winner and victor of the last two races at the Nevada oval. He boasts 555-career laps led in Vegas, most of those since the 2020 season. If there's any driver in the field that can slow Kyle Laron's current hot streak, it's certainly Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Chase Briscoe (+800) – Despite some career-long struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, we're opting to put Briscoe in the solid plays list this week due to his strength this season on intermediate ovals. The move to Joe Gibbs Racing has done a world of good for his Cup Series career and performance on these cookie cutter tracks. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has registered one win and five Top-10 finishes on these size tracks in 2026 for a 63-percent Top-10 rate and sound 13.9 average finish. Most recently Briscoe battled to a strong fourth-place finish at Kansas Speedway. That's a good glimpse of the potential he brings to Las Vegas this week. Don't get too caught up in looking at his career numbers at LVMS as he has two Top-10 finishes in his last two trips to the Nevada oval.

William Byron (+1000) – Byron's seventh-place at Kansas this past weekend was just enough to keep his slim championship hopes alive. He battled to a respectable seventh-place finish and now will carry that momentum into Las Vegas. Byron can now focus and set his sights high for a great Las Vegas performance. Intermediate ovals have been consistent tracks for the No. 24 team in 2026. Byron has a special aptitude for the Nevada oval. He grabbed a victory here in 2023 and has Top 10's in six of his last seven starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Byron has close to 370-career laps led at this facility and a strong third-place finish there in March. He'll be one of the most dependable fantasy racing drivers in the field.

Chase Elliott (+2000) – With one win and four Top-10 finishes on intermediate ovals this season, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been one of the more consistent performers in the series on the mid-sized tracks. The average finish for the year is checking in around a strong 11.4, so we've slotted this driver and team in the solid plays list this week. Elliott has never won at the Las Vegas oval, but he did collect an impressive runner-up finish at the Nevada oval in March. Las Vegas Motor Speedway isn't one of his better cookie cutter tracks with just a 39-percent Top-10 rate and pedestrian 18.0 average finish. However, Elliott has been pretty sharp on these style tracks this season and his eighth-place finish at Kansas Speedway this past weekend is a good lead-in to racing at Vegas on Sunday.   

Ty Gibbs (+1400) – Gibbs is 94 points back of Kyle Larson in the championship picture, but he's still alive with six races to go. Intermediate ovals have been good for the driver of the No. 54 Toyota with five Top 10's in eight starts for a sound 63-percent Top-10 rate and 15.3 average finish. Gibbs was off his game at Kansas this past Sunday but he should rebound nicely at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He's grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last five Vegas starts, including his fifth-place finish in March's Pennzoil 400. His career numbers at this track still need some work, but recent outings have been much more positive for Gibbs. He should be on his game with Chase implications weighing heavily on the South Point 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Las Vegas & Solid Upside

Joey Logano (+1400) – Logano has been one of the more successful drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway over the years. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has a strong 9.8 average finish at the oval, and he's led well over 550 laps there for his career. Logano has four-career victories in the Nevada desert and they've all come since 2019. The last of those wins came in this event in 2024. Intermediate ovals have been a bit of a weakness for the No. 22 Penske Racing team this season, but he still has two Top-10 finishes this year on the 1.5-mile ovals. Logano is still alive in terms of the Chase for the championship and will not spoil this opportunity. This veteran driver will make his presence felt at the front of the field this Sunday afternoon. 

Austin Cindric (+3000) – After scoring a strong runner-up finish at Kansas Speedway last weekend, the Penske Racing driver comes to Las Vegas with some considerable momentum. Cindric has four Top 10's and seven Top 15's in the last seven races and is one of the more consistent performers of the last two months. The driver of the No. 2 Ford doesn't have stellar numbers at the Las Vegas oval (22-percent Top-10 rate) but Cindric has finishes of sixth-, 11th- and 19th-place in his last three starts in the Nevada desert. That combines nicely with his recent intermediate oval experience. He's scored one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes in his last three starts on ovals of this size and configuration. Cindric is the lower tier driver who should reward handsomely this weekend.  

Bubba Wallace (+2000) – Including his ninth-place finish at Kansas this past Sunday, Wallace has been a top performer on the mid-sized ovals in 2026. The 23XI Racing veteran has scored six Top 10's in eight starts on ovals this size this season for a robust 75-percent Top-10 rate and steady 12.1 average finish. Wallace doesn't have impressive career-long stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he's been on point with his performances there the last few seasons. He has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last seven Las Vegas starts. That's helped to lower his average finish and improve his Top-10 rate, but they're still not great. We would point to March's Pennzoil 400 for guidance. Wallace scored a steady ninth-place finish his last time racing in Sin City.  

Ryan Preece (+6500) – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has been a steady performer this season on the 1.5-mile ovals. Preece has grabbed two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes for a reasonable 18.0 average finish and his last performance was a steady 10th-place finish at Kansas Speedway this past Sunday. He's not looming large in the championship picture but he could be a lower ranked Chase driver who makes plenty of impact on the South Point 400. Preece has finishes of third-, ninth- and 11th-place in his last three trips to the Nevada desert. Those performances are totally at odds with his 10-prior starts at the track, but a good sign that he's established a high level of performance here.  

Tyler Reddick (+900) – The intermediate ovals have been kind to Reddick this season. He's racked up two victories and five Top-10 finishes (63-percent) along with a strong 9.8 average finish. He grabbed those wins earlier in the season and has since cooled off a bit, so we've slotted Reddick in the sleepers list this round. His most recent starts on ovals this size have yielded eighth- and 11th-place finishes at Atlanta and Kansas. The 23XI Racing star hasn't been a world beater at Las Vegas Motor Speedway over the years, but he has been steady. His six Top-10 finishes check in at a reasonable 46-percent rate and his 15.3 average finish is acceptable. Reddick's last two starts at LVMS have netted fifth- and 13th-place finishes.     

Daniel Suarez (+6000) – Suarez is literally the best of the rest in a crowded mid-field of drivers at this track. The Spire Motorsports driver has a win (Charlotte), three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes this season on the intermediate ovals. That 12.3 average finish is difficult to overlook in this style of racing. Suarez is fresh off a reasonable 14th-place finish at Kansas this past Sunday. As for Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he's produced some results here in recent seasons. The driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet has scored two Top-5, three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last seven Las Vegas starts. His career averages at this track still don't look that great, but the recent sampling has been pretty strong for Suarez. He should be a Top-15 finisher in Sunday's South Point 400.       

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Brad Keselowski (+4000) – The three-time Las Vegas winner has been somewhat inconsistent on intermediate ovals this season with just two Top 10's (25-percent) and a higher than normal 15.0 average finish on these size tracks. Keselowski has over 350-career laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and his 15 Top-10 finishes rank at a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. The average finish over 26 starts checks in at a solid 12.4. However, Keselowski is not a part of the Chase championship picture and that disconnect has shown up in his recent racing. The veteran driver has just six Top-10 finishes for the season and none in the last eight races. Keselowski is a shaky fantasy racing play at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Josh Berry (+6000) – After a July-to-September heater saw Berry rack up seven Top 10's in nine events, the Wood Brothers Racing driver has cooled off a good bit in the last three weeks. 28th- and 35th-place finishes at Gateway and Kansas have brought the No. 21 Ford team back to Earth. Now Berry travels to a track that hasn't rewarded him much during his Cup Series career. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has given him six starts, and a surprise win in 2025. However, that's the only Top 10 of his six starts at the track. The rest of the efforts have been finishes outside the Top 20. Berry's last two starts at the track since that victory have been disappointing 26th- and 31st-place finishes. He's not trending the right direction before this Sunday's South Point 400.       

Shane van Gisbergen (+15000) – Van Gisbergen is limping towards the finish line in this 2026 season and it can't come soon enough. His season that started so well crashed on the rocks in late July. The driver of the No. 97 Chevrolet rides a nine-race Top-10 drought into Las Vegas this week. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has four-career Cup Series starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and they are finishes of 29th-, 34th-, 33rd- and 36th-place. Two of those starts ended in DNF's due to crashes. This oval has been a total nightmare for van Gisbergen. He's been an inconsistent performer on the intermediate ovals this season. Van Gisbergen's two Top 10's have been offset by four finishes outside the Top 20. He finished a disappointing 24th-place last Sunday at Kansas Speedway.   

Carson Hocevar (+1500) – Hocevar's inconsistent playoffs have seen him drop to 11th-place in the Chase standings at 150 points back of leader, Kyle Larson. His 33rd-place finish at Kansas this past week struck a huge blow to his championship hopes. Hocevar will have difficulty rebounding this week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The Spire Motorsports youngster has a 38-percent Top-10 rate on intermediate ovals this season and 15.9 average finish. Lately, that's been even lower with just one Top 10 in his last four intermediate oval starts. In six-career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Hocevar has just one Top-15 finish vs. five finishes outside the Top 20.