Brickyard 400 Preview: Motor Racing's Field of Dreams

In the wake of NASCAR's successful return to North Wilkesboro Speedway, one of NASCAR's shortest tracks, we come to the yard of bricks this week and one of NASCAR's largest and most legendary ovals. This Sunday afternoon the NASCAR Cup Series comes back to the historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for this weekend's Brickyard 400. The Brickyard will host this prestigious stock car racing event on motor racing's most identifiable and iconic track. This will be the third season that NASCAR has competed on the famed oval in Indianapolis since 2020. For the previous three seasons (2021-2023) NASCAR's top division raced only on the Grand Prix circuit at Indy. However, as a part of the 2024 scheduling shakeup, the Indianapolis oval was welcomed back to the schedule. The iconic four-turn track returned to the regular season slate.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a rectangular oval with very flat banking all the way around. The straights are completely flat, and the four corners have banking that varies from 9 to 12 degrees. The track is very temperature sensitive, so constant adjustments to the race car are a must in order to keep up with the changing handling conditions throughout the event. In seasons past, Goodyear has been able to develop a great tire for stock cars at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so we expect solid racing and for tire wear not to be an issue this Sunday afternoon. The long green flag runs that are commonplace at Indy could bring the fuel-mileage factor into the strategy for this 400-mile event, so we'll need to keep that detail in the back of our minds when making our driver list this week. The rectangular oval has hosted 29 NASCAR Cup Series events to this point, so we have some very extensive data on how the drivers perform at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, albeit only two races of the data includes the newest generation stock car.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the most unique track that the series visits each year. No other track on the circuit has enough comparable characteristics to draw even a modest comparison. The racing we just experienced at Pocono Raceway in mid-June is probably the most similar characteristics to consider. Those drivers that dominated on the Tricky Triangle are likely to keep the momentum rolling this weekend at Indianapolis. Let's take a quick look at the loop stats for the last 18 Cup Series races at Indy. Since the NASCAR's top division only races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway once a season, this span will cover the last 18 years (omitting the seasons we have raced on the GP Circuit) and should give us a good statistical tool to evaluate the drivers for this weekend's Brickyard400 at the Brickyard. 

Chevrolet drivers and teams used to dominate the rectangular oval in Indiana. For years Chevy drivers piled up the trophies in this prestigious event. That all changed in 2015 and 2016 when Kyle Busch won back-to-back installments of the Brickyard 400 for then Toyota. In this event five years ago Ford star, Kevin Harvick, swept into Indianapolis victory lane for the second-straight season. In so doing, he gave Ford its third-consecutive Brickyard win. Last season, Bubba Wallace would lead the final 26 laps and sweep into victory lane at the historic oval to reunite Toyota with winner's circle in Indianapolis. This is where we stand entering this weekend and continuing the tradition of racing on the oval. Ford have been locked out of victory lane here since 2020 and will be looking to snap Chevrolet and Toyota's win streak at the oval.        

Toyota drivers have a golden opportunity to continue their dominance at the Brickyard, if Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick's recent 1-2 finish at Pocono is any indication. At the moment, Toyota teams seem particularly dangerous. With Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick racing so well, they are definitely the momentum plays this weekend. As for Ford, drivers like Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski are more than capable of taking the win in this Sunday's Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis. In regard to the Chevrolet camp, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron will once again be the top drivers from that manufacturer who can potentially spoil the party. We'll take a look at the top contenders and the streaking drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, along with historical data in order to give you the drivers you need this weekend to dominate the Brickyard and your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Thursday

Denny Hamlin (+350) – Hamlin has never won at Indianapolis, but he comes to the historic track in the best position of his career to win and kiss the yard of bricks. With four victories already this season and two of them coming at the big ovals of Michigan and Pocono, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is hot coming to Indianapolis this weekend. Hamlin won the pole, led 28 laps and took the victory at the similarly configured Pocono Raceway a few weeks ago. The Brickyard has always played well to veteran drivers, and Hamlin is among the most senior in the series now. In his 17-career starts on the Indianapolis oval, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has collected nine Top-10 finishes (53-percent) and led 152 laps. Hamlin should be one of the top contenders to win the Brickyard 400.

Tyler Reddick (+550) – Reddick was incredibly impressive in his Indianapolis start two years ago. He qualified on the pole, led 40 laps and finished runner-up in that season's Brickyard 400. That was just his second-career start at the Brickyard and it followed up on a steady eighth-place finish he had in his previous start. Reddick has five wins already this season and among them are victories at the big ovals of Daytona and Darlington. He was recently a runner-up finisher at the similar oval in Pocono, so the No. 45 team look poised for a big weekend at the Brickyard. Reddick should be battling among the leaders in this 400-mile race.  

Kyle Larson (+700) – Larson has won and finished runner-up in the last two races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so he'll carry Chevrolet's hopes for a win this weekend at the Brickyard. He was a fifth-place finisher with 24 laps led recently at Pocono Raceway and that's a good comp to this Sunday's Brickyard 400. As for the historic track itself, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is a one-time Indianapolis winner (this event two seasons ago) and he cracks the Top 10 at this facility at a strong 63-percent rate. The big, flat 2.5-mile rectangular oval plays well to Larson's skill set of tire and fuel management as well as optimal racing lines. He'll be a dangerous driver in Sunday's 400-mile battle.    

Christopher Bell (+1000) – Bell led 18 laps and battled late for the win at Pocono Raceway recently. However, a fuel strategy gamble would see him run out of gas on the last lap and not get the finish he deserved. That strong performance is still a good comp to what the No. 20 Toyota team could do this weekend. Bell has just three prior starts on the oval since he was a rookie driver in 2020. With 12th-, fourth- and eighth-place finishes in those attempts (8.0 average finish) the Joe Gibbs Racing star has been steady and consistent in his prior Brickyard races. We believe Bell has great potential and a high ceiling this weekend in Indianapolis.      

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Chase Elliott (+1200) – Considering that Elliott was an 11th-place finisher at the similar sized/banked oval in Pocono a few weeks ago, he should deliver this week at Indianapolis. Elliott doesn't have stellar stats the historic oval, but he has Top-10 and Top-15 finishes in his last five starts at the Brickyard and that has lowered his average finish to 16.3. The Hendrick Motorsports star should pick up right where he left off and very likely improve considering his recent level of performance. Elliott has the potential to post a career-best finish and crack the Top 10 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this Sunday.

Bubba Wallace (+1200) – With his surprise win at the Brickyard last season, Wallace now demands top attention as the series returns to the historic oval. The 23XI Racing veteran led 30 laps and took the win in this event one year ago. That now gives Wallace an impressive four-race Indianapolis Top-10 streak entering this weekend's Brickyard 400. He's now led 56 combined laps in just his last two starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and achieved an impressive 80-percent Top-10 rate in five-career starts. Wallace has lowered his average finish at this track to a strong 11.2 and that places him among the elite in the Cup Series at Indy.

Ryan Blaney (+700) – The driver of the No. 12 Ford was a 10th-place finisher at Pocono Raceway recently and he really carried the battle best among the Ford drivers in the field that day. That should hold up for Sunday's Brickyard 400. The Penske Racing star has not been a big performer on the Brickyard oval earlier in his career, but he's cracked the Top 10 three times in his last four starts there and battled to an Indianapolis personal-best of third-place in this event two years ago. Blaney led 14 laps and finished a steady seventh-place in this event last season. The notes from that race will be put into good use for this weekend's Brickyard 400.     

Brad Keselowski (+4500) – Keselowski's won this event in 2018 and finished runner-up at the Brickyard in 2017 so he's no stranger to success here. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has 13-career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Those have yielded one win, four Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes along with 143 laps led. After some mediocre racing at IMS earlier in his career, something has really flipped the switch on for Keselowski in more recent years at the hallowed grounds. He has a steady 54-percent Top-10 rate and sound 12.9 average finish at the Brickyard. At current performance levels he doesn't appear to have the inside track on winning Sunday afternoon, but you can bet Keselowski will be nipping at the heels of the leaders in the Brickyard 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Atlanta & Solid Upside

Chase Briscoe (+1000) – Briscoe led 4 laps and was a 12th-place finisher at Pocono Raceway a few weeks ago. He also qualified well that weekend too at the Tricky Triangle. That's likely a good preview of what to expect for this driver and team at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Briscoe has two-career Cup Series starts on the historic oval at Indianapolis and while he's yet to have a big impact, his performances are pointing in the right direction. In this event one year ago, Briscoe won the pole position and led a whopping 34 laps before running into trouble and finish 18th in last season's Brickyard 400. He'll build on that experience this Sunday afternoon.

Ty Gibbs (+1700) – In Gibbs's first two Indianapolis starts he's qualified well with fifth- and sixth-place starting spots. That 5.5 average finish is elite level. Although the finishes have yet to come, the young driver should start reaping the rewards of good qualifying at the Brickyard sooner rather than later. Gibbs earned a steady ninth-place finish at Pocono Raceway a few weeks ago. The racing configuration and action is very similar to Indianapolis. So, it's a very good comp and preview of the potential for the No. 54 Toyota team this weekend. Gibbs should be a Top-10 finisher on the historic oval at Indianapolis.   

Daniel Suarez (+8000) – In six-career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Suarez has earned a steady two Top 10's and three Top 15's in those efforts. The average finish is checking in at a very reasonable 15.2 across the span. Suarez qualified extremely well at Pocono Raceway a few weeks ago and he would bring home a Top-15 finish in that similar race and track. That bodes well for the No. 7 Chevrolet team coming into this weekend's battle at the Brickyard. Suarez and his Spire Motorsports team are a steady fantasy racing play and should bring home at least a Top-15 finish on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Buescher (+2000) – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran was a Top-15 finisher in this event one year ago and he's cracked the Top 10 once in his seven-career starts at the Brickyard. The 18.6 average finish is a fair statistic and he's not expected to be a big performer this weekend. However, Buescher has shown the ability to stay on the lead lap here and collect Top-15 finishes in 57-perecent of his starts. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has always done well on big ovals and he was recently a seventh-place finisher at Pocono Raceway. Those are good signs heading into this weekend's battle at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Carson Hocevar (+2200) – Hocevar is in the midst of a career-best season and looking good coming into Indianapolis. He is coming off a Top-15 finish at North Wilkesboro this past Sunday and looking to keep the momentum rolling at the Brickyard. Hocevar and his race team have done extremely well in their two prior Cup Series starts at the historic Indianapolis oval. He's claimed 12th- and 10th-place finishes in those starts and show the ability to drive from the back of the field to the front. In this event one year ago the Spire Motorsports youngster came from eighth on the starting grid to finish 10th in last season's Brickyard 400.    

John Hunter Nemechek (+6500) – With 17 laps led and two Top-15 finishes in his three prior starts at the Brickyard, Nemechek has been a steady performer here. The 12th-place finish he earned in this event one year ago is his best mark to-date. Recently, Nemechek led a whopping 42 laps (race high) and finished an impressive eighth-place at Pocono Raceway. That's a good measure of potential for Sunday afternoon at the Brickyard. The Legacy Motor Club driver has great high ceiling potential in this 400-mile battle at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.         

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

William Byron (+900) – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been an up-and-down performer this season. Byron is coming off a reasonable 12th-place finish at North Wilkesboro, but he and this team are expected to perform better. That's not a good indicator coming into the Brickyard. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has five-career starts on this oval and just one Top-10 finish (20-percent) along with a disappointing 20.8 average finish at the historic oval. Byron was a Top-5 performer at Pocono Raceway a few weeks ago, but we believe it will be different this time around. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of his worst ovals on the Cup Series schedule.

Joey Logano (+1600) – Logano has pretty good Indianapolis numbers in his racing resume. He has eight total Top-10 finishes in 14 starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That 57-percent rate is enviable among any driver in NASCAR's top division. He has also won a pole position and finished runner-up twice in his career at Indy. However, this Penske Racing star has really labored on the big tracks in 2026. Logano has crashed out of his last two Brickyard 400's and that's moved his average finish at the oval up to 14.0. Given his current big oval struggles and recent struggles at Indianapolis, he's a driver best left on the fantasy racing bench this week.

Erik Jones (+3500) – Outside of his runner-up finish at the Brickyard in 2018, when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones has had nothing but struggles at the historic Indianapolis oval. His other five starts at the Brickyard have all been finishes outside the Top 25. The 28.2 average finish across his six-career starts is one of the worst average finishes of all full-time Cup Series drivers at Indy. Jones turned in a good performance with his Legacy Motor Club team in Pocono a few weeks ago, but we believe this weekend will be different. The Yard of Bricks has been a tough track for the veteran driver.     

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+30000) – The HYAK Motorsports driver has a lot of experience racing at Indianapolis Motor Speedway but has not had a whole lot of success. In 10-career starts at the Brickyard Stenhouse has only managed two Top-15 finishes and an average finish of 27.8. In this event one year ago the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet got into trouble and finished several laps down in 35th-place in the Brickyard 400. The track specific resume just isn't very good for this driver and team. Despite a good performance a few weeks ago in Pocono, we're recommending to pass on Stenhouse and his race team for this Sunday's Brickyard 400.