Dollar Tree 301 Preview: Short Track Swing Concludes

We stay on the short track circuit this week, but we travel from the foothills of Central Virgina to New England. NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Dollar Tree 301 this Sunday afternoon. The bull ring at Loudon, New Hampshire is a true oval with variable banking of 2-to-7 degrees in all turns, and 1-degree on both straight aways. It is a flat track in the purest sense. The handling of the race car is very important at this oval. How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS. A driver and crew chief's patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track. If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience. A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far. Considering that last weekend we saw a lot of two and even three-wide and wild racing at Richmond, we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon. This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born. New Hampshire Motor Speedway embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates in 2018. For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix. All are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon. Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England. While keeping these races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval. The loop stats shown below cover the last 21 years or 34 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a track of streaks for several seasons. Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them. From 2012 to 2013 Toyota reeled off three-straight victories at the Magic Mile. Brad Keselowski's victory in the summer of 2014 broke the Toyota string and set Ford up to win the next two events at the one-mile oval. More recently, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the Magic Mile in the 2017 season and returned Toyota to dominance at the historic short track. That would last until 2018 when Kevin Harvick won back-to-back Loudon victories for Ford in 2018-19. Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola would then build on that Ford streak by winning the next two New Hampshire races in 2020 and 2021. However, Christopher Bell's win in this event four years ago, followed by Martin Truex Jr.'s victory here in 2023 handed control of Loudon back to Toyota and brought Ford's streak to an end. Bell would win again last season at Loudon and extend Toyota's streak to three races at New Hampshire. Last year Ryan Blaney would snatch his first-career Loudon victory and put the blue oval of Ford back in victory lane there and also end Toyota's three-race win streak at the track. Can Ford continue to build on this streak? That is the question on everyone's minds heading into this Sunday's Dollar Tree 301.  

In this event one year ago, we witnessed Blaney absolutely dominate and lead 116 of the 301 laps while a late caution would help him wrestle control from Josh Berry and secure the victory. It was a surprising performance for the Penske Racing veteran to claim his first-career win at the New England short track. There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon. Aside from Blaney and Berry, Joey Logano and William Byron were also major forces on the track that day. With the way short track racing has gone this season, we should see some similar parity among drivers and manufacturers again this weekend. We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Wednesday

Christopher Bell (+550) – Bell has always liked this flat, one-mile oval. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota won or finished runner-up in three of the last five races at the Magic Mile. In Xfinity Series competition, Bell has won all three starts he's made at Loudon in that division of NASCAR. That's a pretty impressive accomplishment and it speaks to his excellence in racing at this track. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been strong on the Cup Series short track circuit in 2026. Bell has nabbed two runner-up finishes and four Top 10's in the six events on ovals one-mile or less in size. He finished a strong seventh at the Richmond short track this past Saturday night and is riding a ton of momentum into New Hampshire this week.  

Ryan Blaney (+450) – The driver of the No. 12 Ford has been on a tear on this season's short tracks. The Penske Racing star has one win, one runner-up finish and three Top-5 finishes on the bull ring circuit and includes his current four-race pole position streak on ovals one-mile in size and less. Blaney has not been stellar at the Magic Mile in his Cup Series career, but he did claim his first-career victory at the track one season ago at New Hampshire. That performance and 116 laps led have lowered Blaney's average finish at Loudon to a respectable 13.5. He led 88 laps and faded to finish 13th this past week at Richmond, he has to be very motivated coming to New England this weekend. The driver of the No. 12 Ford will be a force in Sunday's Dollar Tree 301.

Denny Hamlin (+600) – Hamlin is a three-time New Hampshire winner, and he's finished runner-up at this small oval on six occasions over the years. Loudon really is one of his favorite short tracks on the circuit. It's been a challenging season for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota, but Hamlin does have two runner-up finishes this season on the short tracks. With a 59-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile, Hamlin is one of the more consistent performers at this facility in NASCAR's top division. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has tons of upside at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and that easily makes him among one of the top contenders this week.

Ty Gibbs (+1200) – The biggest risk/reward driver this weekend is perhaps Gibbs and the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team. The young driver has just three Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and they've been unremarkable to this point (three finishes outside the Top 15), however, Gibbs has been on fire of late and especially on the short tracks. He has two victories and five Top-5 finishes on the bull rings and his 4.8 average finish on them is nearly flawless. Gibbs was a Top-5 finisher at the flat short track in Martinsville earlier this season and we believe he'll be in contention for the win by the conclusion of the Dollar Tree 301.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Joey Logano (+600) – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time New Hampshire winner and Logano has seven Top 10's in his last nine Loudon starts going into Sunday's short track battle. Logano's 15 Top-10 finishes at the Magic Mile check in at a strong 56-percent rate, which has only been bolstered in recent seasons. The Penske Racing star grabbed a surprising win at North Wilkesboro and Top 10's at Martinsville and Bristol this season and that bodes well for his start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend. Logano led 95 laps and claimed his second short track victory of the season this past weekend at Richmond Raceway. He's definitely shifted into playoff mode at this point.  

Chase Briscoe (+850) – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota rides a three-race Loudon Top-10 streak into this weekend's action that includes a runner-up finish in 2024. Briscoe brings that experience into this Sunday's Dollar Tree 301. This recent heater at New Hampshire as elevated his Top-10 rate there to 60-percent and lowered his average finish to 12.8. Briscoe has been a strong short track performer this season. He has grabbed four Top-10 finishes on ovals, one-mile in size and less and posted a steady 11.2 average finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is coming off 171 laps led and a brilliant runner-up finish at Richmond this past week. Briscoe has yet to cash in on a short track victory in 2026, but it's just a matter of time.

Josh Berry (+1600) – Berry has shook us awake over the past two weeks of racing. He forged an impressive fourth-place finish at Iowa Speedway two weeks ago and then followed it up with his eighth-place finish at Richmond this past Saturday night. Nothing much has gone right for the outgoing Wood Brothers Racing driver, but he's found a groove in this current short track string. Berry has just two prior Cup Series starts at the Magic Mile, but they've been quite impressive efforts. He finished third-place in this event two seasons ago and he led 10 laps and finished runner-up in this event one year ago. Those performances were spread across two different race teams which makes the efforts even more impressive. He's racing for his NASCAR future this weekend and that motivation will be unmistakable.

Brad Keselowski (+6500) – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been really impressive over his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Keselowski owns two-career victories and close to 600 laps led. The veteran driver boasts 16 Top-10 finishes which checks in at a strong 64-percent Top-10 rate. Keselowski has five Top 10's in his last seven starts at Loudon that includes a win in the 2020 season coming into this weekend's Dollar Tree 301. The veteran driver boasts pretty good stats on the short tracks this season with one Top 10 and four Top 15's in six starts on ovals one-mile in size or less. The New Hampshire oval is a great track for this driver and team, and Keselowski has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at New Hampshire & Solid Upside

Kyle Larson (+900) –  Larson has been a bit inconsistent on the short tracks this season so for second straight week we're slotting him in the sleepers list. The Hendrick Motorsports star has two Top 5's and 286 laps led. He also has four Top-10 finishes (67-percent) on ovals one-mile in size and less this season. Larson cracks the Top 5 at Loudon at a strong 40-percent rate and despite never having won here, the veteran driver is almost always challenging the Top 5 late in this race. He's collected three-career runner-up finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and he rides a three-race Loudon Top-10 streak into this weekend. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has never won at the Magic Mile and he's not likely to this Sunday. However, a Top-10 finish cannot be ruled out.

William Byron (+1200) – Byron has four Top 10's and five Top 15's on the short tracks this season. That average finish is working out around a respectable 12.0, but he's clearly not had the speed to lead many laps nor challenge for wins. Byron has just eight-career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and a pedestrian 15.3 average finish over that span. He's yet to really make a mark on this particular short track yet. However, the Hendrick Motorsports star qualified fifth on the grid in this event last season and he raced to a Loudon career-best third-place in the Mobil 1 301. A Top-10 finish seems fairly certain in Sunday's 301-lap short track battle.   

Chase Elliott (+2200) – The Hendrick Motorsports star has better short tracks in his resume, but he's still good enough at New Hampshire to warrant fantasy consideration. His Loudon stats aren't very impressive (33-percent Top-10 rate and no wins) but Elliott has been improving with his racing of late and short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. Elliott has one win and two Top-10 finishes in six starts on the small ovals in 2026 for a reasonable 13.8 average finish. He's led a combined 108 laps on the bull ring circuit this year so he's done a fair amount of racing among the leaders. Elliott's not in race-winning form right now, but he's good enough to fetch a Top 10 at the Magic Mile.

Ross Chastain (+3500) – Chastain has been turning the corner in recent short track races, and his finishes of seventh-place at Iowa and 12th-place at Richmond this past week underscore this fact. His average finish for these two races stands at a sharp contrast to his performances earlier in the season. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has earned Top 10's in four of his last five starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That has made up for some struggles he had on the one-mile oval earlier in his Cup Series career. Chastain now boasts a sound 57-percent Top-10 rate at Loudon and he finished ninth-place in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has a lot of upside in Sunday's race in New England.

Bubba Wallace (+3500) – Wallace has led 46-combined laps in his last three short track efforts and managed to forge steady finishes in the No. 23 Toyota. The 23XI Racing veteran has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes and the 15.2 average finish is not awful. Wallace's best performance was on the short track of North Wilkesboro Speedway (sixth-place) and that's a good precursor for the Magic Mile. After some struggles earlier in his career at this oval, Wallace has grabbed a pair of Top 10's in his last four starts at New Hampshire. That's only brought his career Top-10 average here up to 25-percent, but the recent sampling is 50-percent. We believe Wallace will be a top performer in the Dollar Tree 301.    

Carson Hocevar (+7500) – With just two Cup Series starts at the Magic Mile, Hocevar is short on experience at this one-mile oval but the results have been steady. 17th- and 11th-place finishes have been his body of work so far and he qualified extremely well (sixth) in this event one year ago. The Spire Motorsports youngster has been an up-and-down performer on the small ovals compared to the larger tracks this season. Still, Hocevar is worth a look in NASCAR's return to New Hampshire. He's raced well at this track in his prior starts and has shown some improvement. Hocevar's 21.3 average finish on short tracks this season may discourage some from fantasy deployment this weekend, but we say don't sleep on this upside pick.   

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Alex Bowman (+9000) – If you're examining purely historical stats at NHMS, you're likely to discount Bowman all together. A deeper dive into the numbers shows that he's not been all that bad here with one Top 10 and seven Top 15's in his last nine starts. However, his 7-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile and inflated 23.7 average finish are difficult statistics to look over. The short tracks have been pretty brutal for the No. 48 team with only one Top 10 vs. three finishes outside the Top 25 for a disappointing 26.8 average finish on the small ovals. Bowman is simply too inconsistent right now for dependable fantasy racing deployment.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+30000) – Among full-time Cup Series drivers, Stenhouse has had probably the most struggles this season on short tracks. He has just two Top-20 finishes in six starts and he's finished outside the Top 25 on three occasions. That puts his average short track finish in 2026 at a disappointing 25.3. Stenhouse just finished four laps down at 31st-place at Richmond this past weekend and he's limping into New England looking for a rebound performance. The HYAK Motorsports veteran has not been the greatest at Loudon in his Cup Series career (17-percent Top-10 rate and 20.3 average finish). Stenhouse finished a disappointing 25th-place in this event one year ago.

Tyler Reddick (+1800) – The "A" tier driver who has been racing like anything but the last several weeks is Reddick and his No. 45 Toyota team. The 23XI Racing star just fetched an 11th-place at Richmond this past week but that did little to help his short track resume this season. With just two Top 10's (33-percent) and a 17.3 average finish on ovals one-mile in size and less, this is not "A" tier production. Reddick has six-career starts at the Magic Mile, and his 50-percent Top-10 rate to this point is decent. However, he finished 21st-place in this event one year ago and that casts some doubt over his chances for Sunday's Dollar Tree 301.    

Erik Jones (+13000) – While Jones has had some modest success this year with five Top-10 finishes to-date, which has mostly occurred on the intermediate and larger ovals. The Legacy Motor Club veteran has had his struggles on the short tracks. Jones has one Top-10 finish this season vs. five finishes outside the Top 20 on the bull ring circuit for a 22.8 average finish. In 10-career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he has two Top 10's for a 20-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile. Jones has not been awful here but he does tend to disappear into the field in these Loudon races. Given how the No. 43 Toyota team is trending on short tracks we believe Jones is a driver to pass up in weekly lineup leagues.