Focused Health 302
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Course: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Format: Tri-Oval
Length: 1.5 miles
Laps: 201
NASCAR O'Reilly Series Race Preview
Sheldon Creed has doubled his career win total in the O'Reilly Series since The Chase began, as he took the checkered flag for the second time in the last three races at Bristol two weeks ago. Creed's hot start, combined with relatively poor results from Justin Allgaier, have already led to him being atop The Chase standings. Allgaier, Carson Kvapil and even Jesse Love are all still within reasonable striking distance, so there will be a compelling final six races down the stretch of the season.
Key Stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
- Number of Races: 38
- Winners from Pole: 6
- Winners from Top 5: 18
- Winners from Top 10: 30
Previous Winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
2026- Kyle Larson
2025- Aric Almirola
2025- Justin Allgaier
2024- AJ Allmendinger
2024- John Hunter Nemechek
2023- Riley Herbst
2023- Austin Hill
2022- Josh Berry
2022- Ty Gibbs
2021- Josh Berry
NASCAR will return to Las Vegas for the second race of the season, with Kyle Larson taking home the win this spring. That guarantees a new winner Saturday evening, and it should be a relatively wide-open field. Austin Hill and Allgaier are the only current O'Reilly Series drivers with a win at the track, and neither has won multiple times in the span of the last 10 races.
Additionally, qualifying hasn't been particularly predictive. Eight of the last 11 winners have qualified eighth or worse, and only one two drivers in that span have qualified in the top five. That suggests there should be plenty of action throughout the field, and the possibility of some big movers during the evening.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for The Focused Health 302
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Justin Allgaier- $13,000
Jesse Love- $11,000
Carson Kvapil - $10,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $9,300
Sam Mayer - $9,200
Austin Hill - $9,000
Corey Day - $8,700
Brandon Jones - $8,300
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
William Sawalich - $8,000
Ryan Sieg - $7,500
Parker Retzlaff- $7,400
Harrison Burton - $7,200
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Jeb Burton - $6,600
Kyle Sieg - $6,300
Optimal Lineup for the Focused Health 302
Jesse Love- $11,000
Austin Hill - $9,000
William Sawalich - $8,000
Ryan Sieg - $7,500
Parker Retzlaff - $7,400
Jeb Burton - $6,600
As was alluded to in the introduction, this isn't a week with many obvious builds because it's a relatively wide-open field. One immediately notable thing about pricing is that Allgaier is $2,000 more expensive than anyone else in the field. He has five top-five finishes in is last seven races at as Vegas, but his price relative to the rest of the field is still likely enough for me to look elsewhere as a driver to build through.
The Richard Childress duo is a strong alternative. Despite the pricing, Hill has a better record at the track, finishing inside the top five in the three of his last seven races and inside the top 10 in all seven. For those that prefer to build a more balanced lineup, this isn't a bad week to bypass Tier 1 and build through Hill and multiple Tier 2 drivers. Mayer and Creed would be priorities in addition to Hill. Mayer qualified on pole this spring before finishing poorly, while Creed is clearly on a hot run.
There are also several drivers not in the field of The Chase that are set up for strong races. Sawalich, Ryan Sieg and Parker Retzlaff all have strong records at Las Vegas. Sawalich has shown consistent speed at the track, qualifying inside the top 15 in all three of his races with finishes of ninth and 12th. Sieg is the clear value option of the week. In the race last fall in Vegas, Sieg finished fifth in both stages and seventh overall. In total, he's finished seventh or better in four of his last five races at Vegas.
It's not a great weekend for punt plays, but both Jeb Burton and Kyle Sieg project well in our optimizer.
Best Bets for the Focused Health 302
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Austin Hill +1200, Sam Mayer +1200
Top-Five Finish - Austin Hill (+150), Sam Mayer (+150), Justin Allgaier (-250)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Taylor Gray (-115) vs. Austin Hill (-115)
Rajah Caruth (-115) vs. Ryan Sieg (-115)
Brent Crews (-140) vs. Sheldon Creed (+105)
Many of the same drivers that we've already discussed are in the mix from a betting perspective. Hill and Mayer provide solid value in nearly every available market. The pricing for race winner largely matches DFS pricing, with Allgaier (+275) as the heavy favorite followed by Love (+550). Allgaier is a strong bet to finish inside the top five, though that will obviously cut out a lot of the value. Hill and Mayer are underpriced across the board and will be the two drivers I'm focused on this weekend.
One of the more interesting driver props available is the head-to-head between Creed and Crews. Crews didn't race in Las Vegas this spring, but he dominated in Phoenix – a very comparable track – in the ARCA Menard's Series the past two years. He's favored slightly over Creed heading into the weekend, but Creed offers additional value in their head-to-head price.
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