Belgium vs France Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | UEFA Nations League

Belgium host France at the King Baudouin Stadium on Monday with both sides on three points and Mark van Bommel's Belgium top of Group A1 on goal difference. Our Belgium vs France prediction is a 1-1 draw, with France missing Kylian Mbappe and Belgium arriving off an impressive 2-0 win in Italy in Van Bommel's first match in charge.

Mbappe scored the winner in Turkiye on Friday before hyperextending his left knee and returning to Madrid. France have won the last five meetings with Belgium, but Zidane now has to replace the player who provided their decisive moment in Kocaeli.

When & Where to Watch (USA)

Monday, Sept. 28 at 8:45 PM CEST / 2:45 PM ET / 11:45 AM PT

Venue: King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels (50,093)

• English: FS2
• Spanish TV: ViX
• Streaming: Fubo, DirecTV Stream, Hulu + Live TV

Belgium vs France Lineups & Injury News

Belgium vs France Confirmed Lineups

Belgium confirmed starting XI (4-1-4-1): Senne Lammens; Timothy Castagne, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy, Joaquin Seysr; Romeo Lavia, Youri Tielemans, Kevin De Bruyne; Mika Godts, Charles De Ketelaere, Diego Moreira

France confirmed starting XI (4-3-3): Mike Maignan; Pierre Kalulu, Maxence Lacroix, Jeremy Jacquet, Andy Diouf; Eduardo Camavinga, Maghnes Akliouche, Lucas Da Cunha; Desire Doue, Esteban Lepaul, Bradley Barcola

For the latest availability across Europe, see RotoWire's soccer injury report.

Belgium Team News & Injuries

Van Bommel took the job on July 24, replacing Rudi Garcia after the World Cup, and Friday in Rome was his first match in charge. He won it 2-0 with two counter-attacks and a shape he'd had three days to teach.

Thibaut Courtois isn't here, and it isn't an injury. He and Van Bommel agreed he'd sit this window out, with the manager saying the door stays open and calling him still world-class. That's how Senne Lammens came to keep a clean sheet at the Stadio Olimpico on his way to six saves.

Jeremy Doku is injured and wasn't selected. Amadou Onana and Thomas Meunier were left out, and Axel Witsel retired from international football after 140 caps. Leandro Trossard is in the squad but didn't feature against Italy while carrying a bruised heel, so treat him as a bench option at best.

The selection call is in the front three. Dodi Lukebakio came on in the 58th minute and settled the game in the 69th with a solo strike from 20 metres, which is a hard thing to do and then be left out three days later. Van Bommel was blunt about his intentions afterwards: "We don't just have 11 starters, everyone can make the difference. Some players didn't have 90 minutes in their legs."

France Team News & Injuries

Mbappe is out. Real Madrid confirmed on Saturday that he hyperextended the posterior capsule of his left knee, and the reporting out of Spain puts him at 10 to 12 days, which takes him past this game and the one after it. Zidane's read on the night was short: "He is not feeling okay. He will have to return to Madrid."

Ousmane Dembele will captain France for the first time in his place. At 29 and with 68 caps he's the senior player in a squad Zidane deliberately cut back, but he should start this one on the bench, because he played left against Turkiye and Zidane wants to try different options during this international window, with Esteban Lepaul potentially getting his first start with France, although Desire Doue can also play as a fake number nine.

The defense was already thin before any of this. Ibrahima Konate withdrew on Thursday with a sprained right knee and went back to Real Madrid, and Leny Yoro was called up in his place for a first senior selection. William Saliba is still out after back surgery, with December the target. That leaves Upamecano and Maxence Lacroix, who started together for the first time on Friday, although Jeremy Jacquet could get the nod for this one in Lacroix's place.

Warren Zaire-Emery never made it to camp at all. He pulled out on Sept. 21 and Maghnes Akliouche came in. 

Belgium vs France Head-to-Head Record

Seventy-eight meetings, and it's almost dead level: Belgium 30 wins, France 29, 19 draws. The recent history isn't level at all. France have won the last five, and Belgium's most recent victory over them was a friendly in June 2015.

Four of those five were decided by a single goal, including the 2018 World Cup semi-final and the last meeting in Brussels two years ago. But France also kept Belgium out entirely in three of them. The pattern is tight games France edge, not shootouts Belgium lose.

Belgium vs France Tactical Analysis

Van Bommel's Belgium played 4-3-3 in Rome and did the thing his post-match comments kept circling: take the ball, and when it's lost, win it back immediately. Against Italy that produced a first half they controlled and a second half they survived, and both goals came on the break rather than out of sustained pressure.

De Bruyne is still the mechanism. He created five chances against Italy, more than anyone on the pitch, and set up the opener before coming off on 58 minutes in his 125th cap. Belgium's plan is to get him on the ball facing forward and let Godts run at people, which is precisely what happened for the first goal.

France played the same shape on Friday and won 64 percent of the ball in a hostile stadium without ever looking comfortable. They had 12 shots, Turkiye had 12, and the expected-goals numbers were near identical. Mbappe's finish was the difference between a routine away win and a flat one.

France's expected front three of Barcola, Lepaul and Doue is not simply a response to Mbappe's absence. Zidane is expected to make around eight changes to the starting XI, using the Belgium match as an opportunity to test different combinations and give several players a chance to impress. Barcola can still provide the vertical threat and pace France usually get from Mbappe, Lepaul offers a different profile by dropping deeper to connect midfield and attack, while Doue has the individual quality and creativity to take on defenders and unsettle Belgium's back line.

The structure should remain similar, but the personnel changes give Zidane a useful chance to evaluate alternative attacking dynamics rather than merely replacing Mbappe like-for-like.

Belgium vs France Key Matchups

Kevin De Bruyne vs France's midfield

France's midfield is physical and none of Da Cunha, Rabiot or Camavinga are natural man-markers. If De Bruyne is allowed to receive facing forward between the lines, Belgium score. Zidane's answer is probably Camavinga or Rabiot tracking him rather than a dedicated screen.

Mika Godts vs Pierre Kalulu

Godts scored his first international goal on Friday days after a 55 million euro move to PSG, and he attempted more dribbles than any other Belgian. Kalulu is a decent defender in space but Godts is precisely the kind of direct runner who makes right backs commit.

Desire Doue vs Maxim De Cuyper

Doue entered the game against Turkiye in Mbappe's place and will likely start this one, either as the number nine or on the right wing, depending of what decides Zizou. De Cuyper has to deal with him without much cover, because Belgium's left side spent Friday pushed high.

Belgium vs France Odds

France are road favourites even without Mbappe, with Belgium a clear second favourite at home and the draw the longest of the three prices.

That makes our 1-1 call the best-paying outcome on the board at up to +300.

Odds from OddsJam. For more markets, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.

Belgium vs France Prediction

France still have enough midfield control and individual quality to avoid being overwhelmed, even without Mbappe. Maignan, Upamecano and Rabiot give Zidane a strong central spine, and France have already shown they can manage a difficult away game under their new coach.

Belgium offer a different challenge. De Bruyne remains the creative hub, Godts and Lukebakio give Van Bommel direct runners around him and the confidence from Friday's win in Rome should carry into a home fixture.

Mbappe's absence is what moves this toward a draw. France lose their best threat in behind and do not have a like-for-like replacement in the squad, while Belgium should be more comfortable defending compactly against players who prefer receiving between the lines.

France should control more of the ball, but Belgium have enough attacking threat and home advantage to keep it level.

Score Prediction: Belgium 1-1 France

Belgium and France Upcoming Fixtures

Belgium host Turkiye on Oct. 2, while France host Italy the same day, before the two meet again at the Stade de France on Oct. 5.

For squad news and injury updates through the international window, see RotoWire's soccer news feed and injury report.