Croatia vs England Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | UEFA Nations League

England go to Rijeka on Saturday level on points with Croatia and three behind Spain, in a stadium UEFA has ordered closed to everyone but children. Our Croatia vs England prediction is a 3-2 England win, because both of these defences have already shown in this group that they can be got at, and England have the forwards to take more of the chances on offer.

Croatia conceded four in Sevilla on Tuesday, and Slaven Bilic said afterwards his side were "bad in every way." England won 2-0 in Prague against ten men three days after losing 3-2 at home to Spain. The last time these two met, in Dallas at the World Cup in June, England won 4-2.

When & Where to Watch (USA)

Saturday, Oct. 3 at 6:00 PM CEST / 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT

Venue: Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka (8,279, behind closed doors)

• English: Fubo
• Spanish: ViX

The game is being played without a general crowd as a UEFA sanction against the Croatian federation. UEFA has allowed an exception for roughly 5,000 children aged 14 and under, plus 100 tickets for England supporters. England have been here before: the October 2018 Nations League meeting at this ground was also played behind closed doors and finished 0-0.

Croatia vs England Lineups & Injury News

Croatia vs England Expected Lineups

Croatia expected starting XI (4-2-3-1): Dominik Livakovic; Ivan Smolcic, Josip Sutalo, Marin Pongracic, Josko Gvardiol; Mateo Kovacic, Luka Modric; Petar Sucic, Martin Baturina, Ivan Perisic; Dion Beljo

England expected starting XI (4-2-3-1): James Trafford; Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Lewis Hall; Elliot Anderson, Eberechi Eze; Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon; Harry Kane

For the latest availability across Europe, see RotoWire's soccer injury report.

Croatia Team News & Injuries

Bilic took the job in July after Zlatko Dalic stepped down following the World Cup, and this is his second spell in charge. His first week back has gone from a 2-1 win in Prague to a 4-1 defeat in Sevilla, and his diagnosis of the second was blunt: "We can't come here just to be part of the celebration. That's not us." He also pointed out that Croatia had conceded from a set piece again.

Changes look likely. Martin Baturina, who scored against England at the World Cup, is expected back in the side, and so is Luka Modric. Modric is 41, plays for AC Milan, and became Croatia's oldest-ever scorer with the opener in Prague, but he only came off the bench in Sevilla and Bilic has already said he won't play all four games in this window. Croatia host Spain three days after this, so whether he starts here is a genuine question.

Josip Stanisic missed Tuesday with a viral infection and could return at right-back. Marin Pongracic was taken off at half-time in Sevilla for reasons that weren't explained. Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic withdrew before the window, with an Achilles problem and a foot injury respectively.

No one is suspended. Four Croatia players took yellow cards across the two games and each is on one, so a second booking on Saturday would mean a ban for the Spain match.

England Team News & Injuries

Thomas Tuchel has said he won't rotate, calling it "madness" with four games in eleven days and a squad already thinned by five withdrawals. That points to something close to the Prague XI, which is the one above.

Two players are worth watching. Jude Bellingham came off the bench in Prague and picked up what Tuchel called "a little niggle" late on; Tuchel said he hoped it was nothing serious. If he's fit, he's the obvious candidate to come in for Morgan Rogers. Nico O'Reilly missed Tuesday with a muscle problem and stayed with the squad, and Tuchel's update was a shrug: "I cannot say yes but I cannot say no." Ezri Konsa also sat out Prague with a minor issue.

James Trafford has started both games ahead of Jordan Pickford, and Tuchel has given no sign of changing that.

England have nobody suspended either. Marc Guehi, Bellingham, O'Reilly and Lewis-Skelly are each on one yellow.

Croatia vs England Head-to-Head Record

England lead the overall record with seven wins from 12 meetings, against two draws and three Croatia wins. They're unbeaten in the four games since that 2018 semi-final in Moscow, which is still Croatia's most recent win in the fixture.

The June meeting is the one most relevant to Saturday, because it was the same kind of game. Kane scored twice, Baturina and Musa scored for Croatia, and the result was settled by Bellingham and Marcus Rashford after half-time.

Croatia vs England Tactical Analysis

Croatia are at their best when they can slow the game down through Kovacic and, if he starts, Modric. The problem against Spain was what happened once that control disappeared. Their midfield struggled to recover when possession turned over, leaving the back line exposed to runners arriving at speed.

That is where England should look to hurt them. Gordon and Saka can attack quickly from wide areas, while Kane dropping away from the center-backs gives Bellingham or Rogers space to run beyond him. Croatia will want Gvardiol and the holding midfielders to prevent those combinations from developing centrally.

Croatia's route is different. Baturina can receive between England's midfield and defense, while Perisic and the full-backs can test an England back line that has not looked settled during this window. Set pieces also matter after Croatia scored that way against Spain and England conceded three times from open play against Spain.

England's 2-0 win in Prague is difficult to use as a clean tactical guide because Czechia played with ten men from the 25th minute. Saturday should provide a much better indication of whether Tuchel's midfield can control a competitive away game without giving opponents the transition chances Spain exploited at Wembley.

Croatia vs England Key Matchups

Anthony Gordon vs Branimir Smolcic

Gordon has scored in both of England's games, at Wembley and in Prague. Smolcic started at right-back in Sevilla and is likely to face him again if Stanisic doesn't make it.

Mateo Kovacic vs Elliot Anderson and Myles Lewis-Skelly

Kovacic is the one Croatian midfielder with the legs to carry the ball out of pressure. If England's two-man screen stops him turning, Croatia have very little else.

Harry Kane vs Josko Gvardiol

Kane has a goal in each game in this group and two against Croatia in June. Gvardiol is Croatia's best defender and the one most likely to be asked to step out and meet him.

Croatia vs England Odds

England are narrow favourites away from home, with the draw priced slightly shorter than a Croatia win.

Odds from OddsJam. For more markets, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.

Croatia vs England Prediction

England have the stronger attacking options and should find opportunities against a Croatia side that struggled badly once Spain increased the tempo on Tuesday. Gordon and Kane have both scored in each of England's first two group matches, while Saka and Bellingham give Tuchel additional ways to attack around Croatia's midfield.

Croatia still carry enough technical quality to make this difficult. Baturina offers a threat between the lines, Kovacic can break pressure and Modric's availability would improve their ability to control possession and set pieces.

The biggest difference should come when the game opens. England have more pace and more attacking depth, while Croatia's midfield and back line have already shown vulnerability when forced to defend transitions.

England get the edge, although another six-goal meeting feels less certain than the June result might suggest.

Score Prediction: Croatia 1-3 England

Croatia and England Upcoming Fixtures

Croatia host Spain in Split on Oct. 6, while England host Czechia at Wembley the same night.

For squad news and injury updates through the international window, see RotoWire's soccer news feed and injury report.