France vs Italy Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | UEFA Nations League

Zinedine Zidane takes charge of France at home for the first time on Friday with two competitive wins from two, while Italy arrive after following a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium with a 4-1 win in Turkiye. Our France vs Italy prediction favors the hosts in a low-scoring game, with France yet to concede under Zidane but still searching for attacking fluency without Kylian Mbappe.

France have beaten Turkiye and Belgium 1-0, with both winners coming late. Italy showed far more attacking threat in Bursa, but Roberto Mancini now has to adjust again after losing Giacomo Raspadori from the forward line.

When & Where to Watch (USA)

Friday, Oct. 2 at 8:45 PM CEST / 2:45 PM ET / 11:45 AM PT

Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis (roughly 80,000, sold out)

• English: FS1, FOX One
• Spanish: ViX
• Streaming: Fubo, Sling Blue, DirecTV Stream, Hulu + Live TV

France vs Italy Lineups & Injury News

France vs Italy Confirmed Lineups

France confirmed starting XI (4-3-3): Mike Maignan; Pierre Kalulu, Dayot Upamecano, Jeremy Jacquet, Adrien Truffert; Adrien Rabiot, Lucas Da Cunha, Rayan Cherki; Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue

Italy confirmed starting XI (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Davide Frattesi, Nicolo Fagioli, Sandro Tonali; Sebastiano Esposito, Francesco Pio Esposito, Moise Kean

For the latest availability across Europe, see RotoWire's soccer injury report.

France Team News & Injuries

Kylian Mbappe is out. He hyperextended the posterior capsule of his left knee scoring the winner in Turkiye, ligament damage was ruled out, and he's spent the window at Valdebebas rather than with the squad.

That leaves a specific hole rather than a general one. Zidane named six forwards and only one of them, Esteban Lepaul of Rennes, is an orthodox centre-forward. Lepaul was uncapped when he was called up, made his debut off the bench in Kocaeli and started in Brussels. Barcola, Dembele, Doue and Olise are wingers or attacking midfielders. With Mbappe absent, France will likely start Ousmane Dembele in the central role, leaving the left wing spot for Desire Doue who has been sensational against Belgium.

The defense is thinner than the clean sheets suggest. Ibrahima Konate withdrew on Sept. 24 with a ligament problem picked up in training and went back to Real Madrid, and Leny Yoro was called up in his place for a first senior selection. William Saliba isn't in the squad. Warren Zaire-Emery pulled out with a thigh injury and Maghnes Akliouche replaced him.

Nothing new broke in Brussels. France took no cards at all and made no injury substitutions, and no withdrawal or call-up had been reported as of Tuesday. Zidane's pre-match press conference falls the day before the game.

The other thing worth knowing is what Zidane did in Belgium. He made nine changes from the Turkiye XI, keeping only Maignan and Lacroix, and won anyway through Olise from the bench. His line on selection afterwards was short: "No one's place is guaranteed."

Italy Team News & Injuries

Giacomo Raspadori is out, and it matters more than the name suggests. He came off at half-time in Turkiye, the Italian federation confirmed on Tuesday evening that tests had ruled him out of both matches in this window, and he's gone back to his club. No replacement had been named.

He was also central to the one tactical instruction Mancini has actually described. "I had asked the attackers to both start wide, with Sebastiano who had to stay wide on the left and Raspadori, instead, who had to move inside to help Pio with Kayode who could attack on the right," Mancini said after the 4-1. Two of the three players in that sentence may not be on the pitch on Friday.

Nicolo Zaniolo withdrew on Sept. 26 with a hamstring problem. Federico Dimarco pulled out before the window and Matteo Ruggeri came in, then started at left-back in Turkiye and assisted the opening goal. Bryan Cristante also withdrew.

The changes Mancini is expected to make are the interesting part. Riccardo Calafiori and Gianluca Mancini should return to the defense, Kayode is hoping to keep the right-back slot after scoring on his debut, although the return of Giovanni Di Lorenzo in the XI can also happen, Frattesi should keep his place, Nicolo Barella is expected back after being left at Coverciano rather than travelled to Bursa, and Moise Kean is expected to start at centre-forward. Sandro Tonali, who started in Turkiye, should keep his role, although Nicolo Fagioli can also get his chance in the heart of the game.

France vs Italy Head-to-Head Record

Italy lead the all-time series. Forty-one meetings, 19 wins to 12, with 10 draws.

The recent picture is the other way round. France have won four of the last five and took the most recent meeting 3-1 in Milan. But the one Italy did win in that run was in Paris, 3-1, in September 2024, so anyone telling you Italy haven't beaten France in years is working from a bad source. Italy have won at this ground within the last two years.

France vs Italy Tactical Analysis

Both sides play 4-3-3 and both have spent this window finding out who they are.

France's two wins have the same shape. They control the ball, they don't concede, and they score once. Mbappe's goal in Kocaeli came before Turkiye went down to 10 men. Olise's in Brussels came in the 88th minute, from the bench, after he'd driven from inside his own half. Zidane admitted Belgium had two or three chances and that the goal could have gone the other way. This is a well-organised side without a settled way of creating, which is what happens when you take out the captain and the only centre-forward is uncapped.

Italy's two performances look like different teams because they nearly were. Mancini left 10 players at Coverciano for the trip to Bursa and handed the match to the younger group, and it produced four goals, a debut goal for Kayode and a goal and an assist for Pio Esposito. His own framing was deliberately cold: "It's worth as much as the defeat against Belgium was worth. The road is still long."

So the question on Friday is which Italy turns up, and Mancini's expected changes point at a hybrid: the senior names back in defence and midfield, the young forwards keeping their places, and a vacancy where Raspadori was. Against a France side that has conceded nothing in two games but scored twice, a low-scoring game is the base case and Italy's route into it is the same one Belgium found, which is catching France in transition.

France vs Italy Key Matchups

Ousmane Dembele vs Gianluca Mancini and Alessandro Bastoni

Dembele gives France a completely different profile through the middle. Rather than operating as a traditional center-forward, he'll look to drop between the lines, combine with the midfield and use his movement to pull Mancini and Bastoni out of position. If either center-back follows him into deeper areas, France can attack the space left behind, while Dembele's quick feet and ability to turn in tight spaces make him particularly dangerous if Italy allow him to receive facing goal.

Michael Olise vs Matteo Ruggeri or Riccardo Calafiori

Olise has scored one and assisted the other of France's two goals in this group. Whoever plays left-back for Italy has the hardest job on the pitch, and Ruggeri is uncapped at senior level beyond this window.

Nicolo Barella vs Adrien Rabiot and Manu Kone

If Barella returns, this is where the game is decided. France's midfield is physical and has kept two clean sheets, but Barella is the one Italian who can consistently find the pass that breaks a compact block.

France vs Italy Odds

France are heavy favourites, which is a long way from the coin-flip pricing they got in Brussels.

This board runs bet365 and Paddy Power in place of FanDuel, and a 1-0 France win is the market's base case as much as ours.

Odds from OddsJam. For more markets, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.

France vs Italy Prediction

France have been difficult to break down under Zidane, taking six points without conceding despite neither performance being especially convincing. At home, with Maignan behind a physical midfield and a back line that has already survived two difficult away matches, they should again control long stretches.

The question remains at the other end. France have scored only twice, Mbappe is still absent and Lepaul is the only orthodox center-forward in the squad. Olise and Dembele provide individual quality, but Zidane has not yet found a consistently reliable way to turn possession into chances.

Italy should make this uncomfortable. Bastoni and Gianluca Mancini give manager Mancini an experienced central pairing, while Barella and the younger attackers offer enough threat in transition to prevent France from dominating without risk.

France's defensive structure and home advantage give them the edge, but another narrow result looks more likely than a comfortable win.

Score Prediction: France 1-0 Italy

France and Italy Upcoming Fixtures

France host Belgium at the Stade de France on Oct. 5, while Italy host Turkiye in Bologna the same day, before the two meet again in Italy on Nov. 12.

For squad news and injury updates through the international window, see RotoWire's soccer news feed and injury report.