Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | Premier League
Leeds host Newcastle at Elland Road on Monday night to close the matchweek, with both sides unbeaten in the league and level on five points. Our Leeds vs Newcastle prediction favors the home side, with Daniel Farke's 3-4-2-1 set up to attack a Newcastle midfield still being rebuilt after the departures of Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali.
Leeds have conceded only twice in three league games, while Matthias Jaissle arrives without Joelinton and with a central midfield partnership that has been together for only a few weeks.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Monday, Sept. 14 at 8:00 PM BST / 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT
Venue: Elland Road, Leeds (capacity 37,645)
- English TV: USA Network
- Streaming: DirecTV Stream, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
- Referee: Michael Salisbury
Leeds vs Newcastle Lineups & Injury News
Leeds vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Predicted lineups: Leeds are projected in the 3-4-2-1 Farke has used in every league game this season, with Nico Elvedi in the back three and Noah Okafor and Anton Stach as the two players behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Newcastle have made the change the hamstring forced: Tino Livramento comes in at right back for Amar Dedic, with Yoane Wissa leading the line.
RotoWire's Premier League predicted lineups are updated throughout the week, with confirmed starting XIs added closer to kickoff.
Leeds UnitedLEE
Newcastle UnitedNEWLeeds UnitedPredictedNewcastle UnitedPredictedLeeds predicted starting XI (3-4-2-1): James Trafford; Nico Elvedi, Tarik Muharemovic, James Justin; Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Gabriel Gudmundsson; Noah Okafor, Anton Stach; Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Newcastle predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hornicek; Tino Livramento, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw, Lewis Hall; Nico Gonzalez, Lewis Miley; Anthony Elanga, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes; Yoane Wissa
For the latest availability updates across the league, see RotoWire's Premier League injury report.
Leeds Team News & Injuries
Joe Rodon is the absence that explains the back three as it stands. He went off after 34 minutes against Brentford with a hamstring problem, Farke has called it long-term, and RotoWire now has him out to early November rather than October. Elvedi has the place.
Ilia Gruev is genuinely close, listed as a game-time decision after the knee problem that has kept him out since April, which gives Farke a real alternative to Ethan Ampadu or Ao Tanaka. Mateo Joseph will not be an option until the new year.
Daniel James is available and out of the projection, which is the call worth watching. He had a back and hamstring scare in the warm-up at Brighton, the scan came back clear, and he played 66 minutes at Chelsea on Wednesday.
There are no suspensions. The one thing to note about the projected XI is who is not in it: Harry Wilson and Sean Longstaff are Leeds' other listed dead-ball takers and neither is projected to start.
Newcastle Team News & Injuries
Amar Dedic is the change. He came off at halftime against Millwall with hamstring discomfort and Jaissle played it down without clearing him, saying only that "it doesn't look too serious" while declining to go further: "I treat these things really confidentially." RotoWire now has him as a game-time decision and the projection has moved on, with Tino Livramento in at right back after working back from his own calf problem.
Joelinton remains out with the thigh injury and is now carried into mid-October, which leaves Nico Gonzalez and Lewis Miley as the pivot with Guimaraes and Tonali both sold. Dan Burn misses this one too, with his ankle problem now dated to the Hull game on Sept. 19, so Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw continue in the middle.
Up front, Wissa is the man in possession by a process of elimination. Nick Woltemade left for Juventus on a season-long loan on deadline day and Will Osula is still working back from a foot injury with mid-October the target, so the only competition is Matias Fernandez-Pardo, the deadline-day arrival from Lille who has completed a full week of training and whom Jaissle says is "getting closer" to a first start.
Bazoumana Toure is progressing but Jaissle was blunt that he remains behind Harvey Barnes on the wing.
Leeds vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Record
These clubs have met 102 times, and the all-time split is almost even: Newcastle 41 wins, Leeds 39, with 22 draws. The last ten years have gone Newcastle's way on balance, four wins to two with four draws, though six of those meetings came while Leeds were in the Championship or between spells in the top flight.
Elland Road has been the leveller. Across the five most recent meetings here Leeds have one win, three draws and one defeat, and the last two both finished level, 0-0 in August 2025 and 2-2 in May 2023. Leeds' biggest Premier League win over Newcastle also came at this ground, 5-2 in December 2020.
The reverse fixture in January was the outlier: Newcastle won 4-3 at St James' Park in a game refereed by Michael Salisbury, who has this one too.
Leeds vs Newcastle Tactical Analysis
Farke's 3-4-2-1 puts two players in the exact band where Newcastle are newest. Guimaraes went to Arsenal, Tonali went to Tottenham, Joelinton is injured, and what screens Newcastle's back four on Monday is Nico Gonzalez, three weeks into the club, alongside Lewis Miley. Okafor and Stach are not wingers pushed inside, they are genuine second strikers operating in the seam either side of that pair, and Ampadu and Tanaka behind them are there to find them rather than to carry the ball themselves. If Leeds get either of the two moving on the half-turn between Gonzalez and Botman, Newcastle have nobody spare in front of the centre backs.
The other half of the game is behind Newcastle's defensive line. Jaissle's football is explicitly vertical and built on immediate counter-pressing rather than dropping into a block, which means the line sits high and stays high. Calvert-Lewin has never been the quickest, but he does not have to be if Leeds can win a second ball and turn Botman and Thiaw around, and Bogle and Gudmundsson as wing backs give Leeds two players arriving into the space that press vacates. Bogle already has a goal from that role, at Brighton.
There is also a numbers question that favors Leeds. A back three against a lone striker leaves a spare defender, and Wissa will spend the night as the only Newcastle forward on the pitch.
The caveat sits at the other end of the same idea. Newcastle press to force mistakes high up, Leeds build through a back three that has to move the ball into midfield to function, and Trafford has been asked to play out from the back since arriving. That is where Newcastle's goals will come from if they come at all.
Leeds vs Newcastle Odds
Leeds are the favorites and have shortened into kickoff. The home side has come in from +140 to +125 since midweek while Newcastle have drifted from +180 out to +210, which is a market reacting rather than to anything Leeds have done. The draw has not moved at all.
| Sportsbook | Leeds | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | +250 | +200 |
| DraftKings | +130 | +250 | +210 |
| FanDuel | +125 | +240 | +210 |
| bet365 | +125 | +260 | +200 |
| Kalshi | +128 | +239 | +207 |
Odds from OddsJam. For more markets across the weekend, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.
Leeds vs Newcastle Key Matchups
Lewis Hall vs Jayden Bogle
Two attacking full backs on the same touchline, and the one place on the pitch where both teams want the same grass. Hall is Newcastle's primary corner taker and one of their two free-kick takers, which tells you how far forward Jaissle wants him, and Harvey Barnes ahead of him on that flank has three goals in five games. Bogle is the wing back on that side for Leeds and scored at Brighton. Whoever spends more of the evening in the opposition half drags an entire structure with him: if Hall is pinned, Newcastle lose their width and their delivery at the same time.
Yoane Wissa vs Nico Elvedi, Tarik Muharemovic and James Justin
Three against one, which is the arithmetic Newcastle have accepted by playing a lone striker into a back three. Wissa scored at Tottenham and is now Newcastle's senior forward by default rather than by selection, with Woltemade on loan and Osula injured. His best hope is that a spare defender in a back three is only an advantage if the wide players are occupied, and Barnes and Elanga are both capable of pushing Bogle and Gudmundsson back far enough to turn the three into a five. If Leeds keep their wing backs high, Wissa is isolated all night.
Leeds vs Newcastle Set-Piece Takers
Set-piece responsibility for both clubs comes from RotoWire's Premier League set-piece takers guide, which covers all 20 teams for 2026-27.
Leeds
- Corners & free kicks: Harry Wilson, Anton Stach, Sean Longstaff, Ao Tanaka
- Penalties: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Newcastle
- Corners: Lewis Hall, Anthony Elanga
- Free kicks: Lewis Hall, Fabian Schar
- Penalties: Yoane Wissa
Stach is the important name. His winner at Forest on the opening day was a direct free kick from distance, and with Wilson and Longstaff outside the projected XI he carries most of the delivery himself. Newcastle have not been awarded a penalty in five games this season, so it is untested.
Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction
The two teams have identical league records, but Leeds have looked more settled defensively. Farke's back three has conceded twice in three league games, while Newcastle are still rebuilding the midfield in front of their defense after losing Guimaraes and Tonali and now playing without Joelinton.
That is exactly where Leeds' shape should cause problems, with Okafor and Stach operating either side of Newcastle's new pivot.
The caveat is Wednesday, when Leeds led Chelsea 2-0 at Stamford Bridge and lost 6-3. Even in a rotated cup side, that is a reminder that the defensive structure is not bulletproof. Still, Elland Road on a Monday night against a Newcastle midfield this unsettled gives Leeds enough of an edge.
Score Prediction: Leeds 2-1 Newcastle
Leeds and Newcastle Upcoming Fixtures
Leeds host Crystal Palace on Sept. 20, while Newcastle host Hull City on Sept. 19.
For the rest of the matchweek, see RotoWire's Premier League predicted lineups, injury report and team stats.
