Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | Champions League
Liverpool open the Champions League league phase against Atletico Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday, the same fixture at the same ground that opened last season. Our Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction favors the home side, with Liverpool coming off their most complete performance of the season and Atletico arriving after a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club.
Andoni Iraola takes charge of his first European night as Liverpool manager, while Diego Simeone is still working around an unsettled center-forward situation. Atletico are again capable of making this uncomfortable, but Liverpool enter with the stronger attack and home-field edge.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Wednesday, Sept. 9 at 8:00 PM BST / 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
- English: Paramount+ (no CBS or CBS Sports Network window for this fixture)
- Spanish: ViX, DAZN
- UK TV: TNT Sports
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Lineups & Injury News
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups
Predicted lineups: Liverpool are projected in a 4-2-3-1 with Ronald Araujo at right back and Victor Munoz in on the right, with Cody Gakpo a game-time decision after missing Tuesday's session. Atletico have changed their back four for the first time in three games: Alejandro Grimaldo drops out, Cristian Romero comes in at center back and David Hancko moves across to left back. Ademola Lookman and Alex Baena are again the front two, because Simeone has no available center forward.
RotoWire's Champions League predicted lineups are updated throughout the week, with confirmed starting XIs added closer to kickoff.
Liverpool predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Ronald Araujo, Jeremy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez; Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai; Victor Munoz, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola; Alexander Isak
Atletico Madrid predicted starting XI (4-4-2): Jan Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, David Hancko; Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Morten Hjulmand, Lee Kang-in; Ademola Lookman, Alex Baena
For the latest availability updates across the competition, see RotoWire's Champions League injury report.
Liverpool Team News & Injuries
Liverpool's absences are all long-term and mostly in defense. Conor Bradley will not be back any time soon after knee surgery, with Northern Ireland manager Michael O'Neill saying a return before the end of the year would be a bonus and March the realistic target. Giovanni Leoni is still working back from the ACL injury he suffered on his debut last September. Hugo Ekitike is out until 2027 with a ruptured Achilles.
The good news is that two of them are close. Joe Gomez returns to team training next week after a muscle strain, and Federico Chiesa should join him around the same time with the back problem that has kept him out all season.
That leaves Araujo at right back, which is still the selection worth watching. He is on loan from Barcelona with an option to buy, he played the position at Portman Road rather than his natural spot next to van Dijk, and he now faces the club Barcelona measure themselves against.
The one late question is on the other flank. Cody Gakpo missed Tuesday's session as a precaution with a minor issue, Iraola did not address it in his media session, and RotoWire has him as a game-time decision, which is why Victor Munoz is projected on the right. Bradley Barcola is projected for his first Liverpool start and Iraola made the case for it himself: "He is ready to play more minutes. He has been training quite normally, the only thing he hasn't had is pre-season games. But he is in a really good place." Joe Gomez trained with the group on Tuesday for the first time since preseason, arriving exactly on the timeline Iraola gave.
Atletico Madrid Team News & Injuries
Alexander Sorloth is out, and Simeone was unusually direct about what it costs him. "He's still in recovery, the injury hasn't allowed him to help us," he said Tuesday. "We need him, he's an important player who gives us things we don't have in other players in the squad." Sorloth has not played a minute this season.
Julian Alvarez will not start, and Simeone said so himself: "Alvarez is building up his fitness, I don't think he's ready to start, but I'm sure he'll help us as the game progresses." He has two substitute appearances and two shots to his name this season after the summer move to Barcelona fell through, and he was booed by his own supporters against Villarreal.
Jonathan David is not an option either. The loan from Juventus went through in the last days of the window and he has not trained with the group since, Simeone explaining that "he hasn't been able to train with us since he's yet to recover from a problem he had before linking up with us." Sunday's trip to Real Sociedad is the earliest he plays. Arnau Ortiz is suspended by UEFA, a carryover from a red card in Conference League qualifying.
So Atletico arrive at Anfield with no available center forward at all. Lookman leads the line by default.
The back four is the change nobody saw coming. Grimaldo drops out of the projection without an injury behind it, Hancko shifts to left back and Cristian Romero, signed from Tottenham and given his debut off the bench at San Mames, is projected for a first start. Robin Le Normand remains available but has not started since his red card against Villarreal.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head Record
These clubs have met nine times, all in Europe, with Liverpool winning four, Atletico three and two drawn. The recent history is genuinely split. Atletico knocked the holders out at Anfield in March 2020, winning 3-2 after extra time to go through 4-2 on aggregate, and they eliminated Liverpool from the 2010 Europa League semi-final on away goals.
Liverpool have won the last three, though, including the meeting that matters most here. On Sept. 17, 2025 these two opened the league phase at Anfield and Liverpool won 3-2, Atletico having come back from two down before van Dijk headed the winner in the 92nd minute. Simeone was sent off after an altercation with a home supporter at full time.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Tactical Analysis
Atletico's shape this season is a 4-4-2 mid-block rather than the relentless press Simeone built his reputation on, and the results have been uneven. They beat Malaga and won 3-1 at Sevilla with Baena scoring twice, then drew with Villarreal after having Le Normand sent off, then went to Bilbao and lost 3-0 having conceded twice inside the opening 90 seconds of the second half. Four games have produced two clean sheets and a collapse.
The absence of a striker is what makes them awkward rather than what makes them weak. Lookman and Baena as a front two is a pair of players who both want the ball to feet and both drift wide, so Liverpool's centre backs will spend the night defending runners arriving from midfield rather than a target to mark. Baena has been Atletico's most dangerous player, with two goals at Sevilla and a direct free kick against Malaga.
Liverpool's problem has been the opposite one, and Friday was the first night it was not a problem at all.
They had conceded first in both league games before Ipswich and rescued them late. At Portman Road they scored twice, kept a clean sheet and let Alisson make five saves rather than none, which is a different kind of performance from a side still learning what Iraola wants. The press is higher than it was under Arne Slot and the full backs are more aggressive, which is the risk Atletico will look to hit. Araujo at right back against Lookman is the individual duel that decides how often they get to.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Odds
Liverpool are favored at home but the spread on them is unusually wide, from -135 at BetMGM out to -165 at FanDuel, a 30-cent gap on the side every book agrees on. Atletico run +333 to +380 and the draw sits around +305, which is not the pricing of a team the market has written off after Saturday.
| Sportsbook | Liverpool | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +300 | +333 |
| DraftKings | -145 | +310 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -165 | +300 | +380 |
| bet365 | -143 | +300 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -137 | +312 | +372 |
Odds from OddsJam. For more markets across the week, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Key Matchups
Alexander Isak vs Marc Pubill and David Hancko
Isak scored twice on Friday and has the kind of season in front of him that starts on nights like this. Pubill and Hancko are a pairing Simeone has settled on quickly, both signed in 2025 and both comfortable defending a long way from their own goal, and Atletico's mid-block is designed to make a striker come short rather than run in behind. What Isak has that Atletico have not faced yet is Wirtz behind him and Gakpo and Barcola stretching the width. If Atletico drop as deep as they did in Bilbao, Isak will get the ball facing goal.
Ademola Lookman vs Ronald Araujo
The most interesting individual duel on the pitch and the one Liverpool would least like to lose. Lookman arrived from Atalanta in January and scored at Sevilla, and playing as a nominal second striker he has license to drift into exactly the channel Araujo has to defend. Araujo is a center back covering at right back on loan from Barcelona, and while he did the job comfortably against Ipswich, this is a different level of opponent. If Liverpool's right side gets pulled around, Atletico's route back into the game is obvious.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Set-Piece Takers
Liverpool's set-piece responsibility comes from RotoWire's Premier League set-piece takers guide, which covers all 20 teams for 2026-27.
Liverpool
- Corners & free kicks: Dominik Szoboszlai, Cody Gakpo, Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister
- Penalties: Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak
Atletico Madrid
- Corners & free kicks: Alex Baena, Alejandro Grimaldo
- Penalties: Julian Alvarez is listed first, though he has not started a league game this season
Szoboszlai has already converted a penalty for Liverpool this season, in the 99th minute at St James' Park, and took three corners against Ipswich, and with Gakpo a game-time decision he may have the dead balls to himself. Baena is the one to watch for Atletico rather than the published hierarchy: with Alvarez on the bench and Sorloth injured, he has taken the corners and scored directly from a free kick against Malaga, and he took four corners and put in seven crosses at Athletic. Atletico have not been awarded a penalty in four league games, so their order from the spot is untested.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Liverpool are the better team, they are at home, and they have just produced the most complete performance of their season at exactly the right moment. Atletico are not a bad side, and a group that reached last season's semi-final and took Liverpool to a 92nd-minute winner in this same fixture will not be passive. But Simeone has confirmed he is picking a front two without a striker in it, his back four just conceded three in 45 minutes at San Mames and has been reshuffled again since, and Anfield on a European night is not where you want to be finding out whether Cristian Romero is ready.
At home, that could be enough for Liverpool to get the win, though their back line still has some issues.
Score Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Upcoming Fixtures
Liverpool host Fulham on Sept. 12 before travelling to LASK in Matchday 2 on Oct. 14, while Atletico go to Real Sociedad on Sept. 13 and host Manchester United on Oct. 13.
For the rest of the matchday, see RotoWire's Champions League predicted lineups, injury report and team stats.
