Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | Premier League
Manchester United host Manchester City at Old Trafford on Sunday in the 199th competitive Manchester derby, with City top of the table on a perfect nine points and United 11th on four. Our Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction is a draw, with City carrying the stronger form but United again looking capable of making this fixture uncomfortable at Old Trafford.
This is Enzo Maresca's first Manchester derby and Michael Carrick's second. Carrick's first was his debut match in charge, a 2-0 win here in January that ended City's 13-game unbeaten run.
When & Where to Watch (USA)
Sunday, Sept. 13 at 4:30 PM BST / 11:30 AM ET / 8:30 AM PT
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester (capacity just over 74,000)
- English: Peacock
- Spanish TV: Telemundo
- Referee: Michael Oliver
Manchester United vs Manchester City Lineups & Injury News
Manchester United vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Predicted lineups: United are projected to restore the XI that started at Everton and against Ipswich, which means four changes from the side that beat Sabah on Thursday. City are projected in the 4-2-3-1 that has become a 3-2-5 in possession under Maresca, with Abdukodir Khusanov at right back and Iliman Ndiaye on the left in place of Phil Foden.
Manchester UnitedMUN
Manchester CityMCIManchester UnitedPredictedManchester CityPredictedRotoWire's Premier League predicted lineups are updated throughout the week, with confirmed starting XIs added closer to kickoff.
Manchester United predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens; Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw; Kobbie Mainoo, Youri Tielemans; Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford; Matheus Cunha
Manchester City predicted starting XI (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Abdukodir Khusanov, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol; Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernandez; Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Iliman Ndiaye; Erling Haaland
For the latest availability updates across the league, see RotoWire's Premier League injury report.
Manchester United Team News & Injuries
Luke Shaw is still not settled and Carrick would not commit on Friday. He was left out of the Sabah squad entirely and remains an assessment: "We'll have to see. We looked after him a little bit going into tonight. He wasn't quite ready for it, 100 per cent, so we didn't risk it. But we'll see how he is over the next couple of days." He is projected to start at left back, so this is the one to take to the teamsheet.
Amad Diallo is confirmed out of the derby by the club, and Carlos Baleba and Matthijs de Ligt are both carrying Sept. 20 return dates, so all three miss it. Manuel Ugarte is out until the spring.
Rashford being benched against Sabah was deliberate and Carrick said so: he came off at Everton with discomfort, and it was "a little bit of that, yeah, and trying to share the load," adding that it was "nice to keep Marcus fresh and ready for the weekend." He is projected to start on the left.
The genuine selection question is at centre forward, and Benjamin Sesko has made it one. He scored the 88th-minute goal at Everton that briefly won the game and then started against Sabah and scored again, and the projection still has Matheus Cunha leading the line.
Marcus Rashford is the other call. He was on the bench on Thursday rather than in the XI, which reads like a player being saved for Sunday, and he is projected to start on the left.
Manchester City Team News & Injuries
City have no doubts left. Nico O'Reilly, who missed the Coventry game after a warm-up back problem, is available without qualification: "Nico is 100 percent available." Jeremy Doku is the one who misses out, and he is now a straightforward absence rather than a decision, with Maresca saying only "Jeremy I think will be some more days." RotoWire has him back on Sept. 20.
Beyond that there is nothing wrong with them, which is the point. Matheus Nunes declared himself fully fit last week and is still not projected to start after going 90 midweek in Champions League, meaning Abdukodir Khusanov remains at right-back.
The projection leaving Phil Foden out is the call worth flagging. He played against Porto on Tuesday and had two shots, while Ndiaye came off the bench in that game and is projected to start this one, so Maresca is rotating the left rather than settling it.
Enzo Fernandez arrives at his first Manchester derby 12 days after signing, and he is further along than that sounds. He was promoted into the XI against Coventry when O'Reilly went down in the warm-up, played 76 minutes, made the pass that set up Erling Haaland's winner, and then assisted at Porto.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Head-to-Head Record
These clubs have met 198 times, with United winning 81 to City's 62 and 55 drawn, and Sunday is the 199th. The long ledger favours United and the last decade has not.
Old Trafford is the exception, and recently a firm one. City have not won a league game here since October 2023, when they took it 3-0. Since then United have drawn 0-0 in April 2025 and won 2-0 in January 2026, the latter Carrick's first match in charge, decided by Bryan Mbeumo in the 65th minute and Patrick Dorgu in the 76th, and it ended a City run of 13 games unbeaten.
The reverse fixture was a different story. City won 3-0 at the Etihad in September 2025, and across the last five Premier League seasons United's home record in the fixture is two wins, a draw and two defeats.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Tactical Analysis
Maresca's City line up as a 4-2-3-1 and play as a 3-2-5. One full back inverts, Ruben Dias and Marc Guehi split, and five City players occupy the width of the pitch on the last line. That is the shape United have to solve, and it puts the question in one specific place: who picks up Rayan Cherki.
United's answer is a two-man pivot, Kobbie Mainoo and Youri Tielemans, with Bruno Fernandes ahead of them. If either of the two steps forward to close Cherki in the space between the lines, Haaland is left against Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martinez with nobody covering. If neither steps, Cherki turns and City have a player running at a back four that has conceded six goals in three league games. There is no version of that trade United enjoy, and it is why the Everton game is instructive rather than the Ipswich one: United led 1-0 and 2-1 on Merseyside and conceded in the 83rd and the 96th.
The route back the other way is the flank City vacate. Inverting a full back is what makes the 3-2-5 work and it is also what leaves one touchline undefended the moment City lose the ball in the middle third. Mbeumo and Rashford are the two quickest players in United's projected XI and Cunha runs the channels rather than holding the ball, so United do not need possession to be dangerous. They put five past Ipswich at home with Bruno Fernandes scoring a hat-trick from that shape, then four past Sabah on Thursday with Matheus Cunha, Fernandes, Benjamin Sesko and Lisandro Martinez all scoring.
The complication is that City are unusually well set up to stop exactly that. Antoine Semenyo put in seven crosses at Porto and Rayan Ait-Nouri assisted from the bench, which tells you how high City's wide players get and how quickly they counter-press when it breaks down.
One structural note that has nothing to do with shape. United played on Thursday night and City played on Tuesday, a two-day recovery deficit into a Sunday afternoon kickoff. Carrick was asked about it and refused the excuse: "I'm not concerned. I wouldn't say it's ideal in some ways, but it's not something that we've given too much thought about. We're not in control of that."
Manchester United vs Manchester City Odds
City are favored on the road at every book but nobody has them shorter than +105, so every outcome is plus money in a derby the market rates as genuinely open. The draw is pinned at +280 at four of the five books.
| Sportsbook | Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +210 | +280 | +110 |
| DraftKings | +205 | +285 | +115 |
| FanDuel | +210 | +280 | +105 |
| bet365 | +220 | +280 | +110 |
| Kalshi | +217 | +279 | +109 |
Odds from OddsJam. For more markets across the weekend, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Key Matchups
Erling Haaland vs Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martinez
Haaland has ten appearances against United, eight goals and three assists, and only Ryan Giggs has more goal involvements in the history of this fixture. He scored twice at Porto on Tuesday. What makes Sunday interesting is the state of the pairing in front of him: Martinez started and scored against Sabah on Thursday night, while Maguire watched from the bench, so one half of United's centre-back partnership arrives with European minutes in his legs and the other does not. Haaland's derby record is built on arriving at crosses and on the second phase after a save, both of which punish a defender half a yard slow.
Bruno Fernandes vs Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernandez
A midfield pairing that cost City more than 240 million pounds, against the player who has to get through it. Anderson cost 116 million pounds from Nottingham Forest this summer and Fernandez 125 million from Chelsea 12 days ago, and neither has played a Manchester derby. Bruno Fernandes has thirteen Premier League appearances against City with three goals and three assists, he assisted the winner here in January, and he arrives off a hat-trick against Ipswich and a goal against Sabah. He is also United's only route into the pocket the tactical section describes, so City will be content to let him have the ball 40 yards out and nowhere closer.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Set-Piece Takers
Set-piece responsibility for both clubs comes from RotoWire's Premier League set-piece takers guide, which covers all 20 teams for 2026-27.
Manchester United
- Corners & free kicks: Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Youri Tielemans, Luke Shaw
- Penalties: Bruno Fernandes, Benjamin Sesko, Youri Tielemans
Manchester City
- Corners & free kicks: Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Elliot Anderson
- Penalties: Erling Haaland
Haaland took all six of City's penalties across competitions last season and there is no argument there. The corner and free-kick order is the softer part, unsettled since Bernardo Silva left for Real Madrid, and with Foden outside the projected XI it falls to Cherki and Anderson. For United, Bruno Fernandes is first up on everything and converted the penalty against Ipswich, and Sesko being second on the list matters given he has scored in each of the last two games without being projected to start.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction
City have been the stronger side through the opening three league matches, while United have already conceded six goals and let two leads slip at Everton.
The complication is Old Trafford. City have not won a league game here since 2023, and United have taken four points from the last two home derbies, including Carrick's 2-0 win in January. This fixture has been much tighter at this ground than the wider form of the two clubs would suggest.
City should control more of the ball, but United have enough pace in transition and enough recent success in this fixture to keep it level.
Score Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City
Manchester United and Manchester City Upcoming Fixtures
United travel to Fulham on Sept. 20, while City host Sunderland the same day before going to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on Oct. 13.
For the rest of the matchweek, see RotoWire's Premier League predicted lineups, injury report and team stats.
