Portugal vs Norway Prediction, Predicted Lineups & Team News | UEFA Nations League

Portugal host Norway in Porto on Sunday with nine points from nine and a chance to secure a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals. Our Portugal vs Norway prediction favors the hosts, with Norway arriving after back-to-back defeats and significant defensive changes while Portugal have scored seven goals across their last two matches.

Cristiano Ronaldo is no longer with the squad after leaving camp on Wednesday, but Jorge Jesus' side have already shown they can function without him. Goncalo Ramos scored and assisted in Copenhagen, while Joao Felix has found the net in all three group matches.

When & Where to Watch (USA)

Sunday, Oct. 4 at 7:45 PM WEST / 2:45 PM ET / 11:45 AM PT

Venue: Estadio do Dragao, Porto (50,033, sold out)

• English: FS2, FOX One
• Spanish: ViX
• Streaming: Fubo, Sling

Portugal vs Norway Lineups & Injury News

Portugal vs Norway Expected Lineups

Portugal expected starting XI (4-1-3-2): Diogo Costa; Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes; Ruben Neves; Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto; Rafael Leao, Goncalo Ramos

Norway expected starting XI (4-3-3): Egil Selvik; Marcus Pedersen, Kristoffer Ajer, Leo Ostigard, David Moller Wolfe; Sander Berge, Fredrik Aursnes, Martin Odegaard; Oscar Bobb, Erling Haaland, Antonio Nusa

For the latest availability across Europe, see RotoWire's soccer injury report.

Portugal Team News & Injuries

Ronaldo is gone. Jesus said at Wednesday's press conference that the 41-year-old would start on the bench again, having left him unused in Oslo, and Ronaldo left the camp the same day. His only public word has been an Instagram post saying that "in time, I will tell all the Portuguese the truth." The federation said preparations would continue with the remaining 24 players. Jesus was blunt before the Copenhagen game, saying it was "not Cristiano" who would change his ideas, and after it he promised: "After the Norway game we will talk about this. I won't hide or run from it."

On the pitch, the squad looks better without the question hanging over it. Goncalo Ramos started at centre-forward in Copenhagen, scored and set up Joao Cancelo's opener, and Joao Felix came off the bench to score his third goal in three games. Felix is the obvious candidate to start in front of Pedro Neto or Rafael Leao.

Francisco Conceicao is still out after a knock picked up in Oslo. Bruno Fernandes needed treatment late in Copenhagen but finished the match. Nobody is suspended, though seven players are one booking from a ban: Joao Palhinha, Renato Veiga, Vitinha, Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva and Ruben Neves. A yellow on Sunday rules that player out of the Denmark game in November.

Norway Team News & Injuries

Norway's defence has been taken apart in a week. Heggem is suspended after his red card in Cardiff and has gone home, and Julian Ryerson left the camp with a rib injury after going off after 16 minutes. No replacements have been called up. Stale Solbakken's answer was simple: "we always bring five center-backs." Leo Ostigard came on in Cardiff and is the likely starter.

Solbakken has also changed his goalkeeper, announcing on live TV that Egil Selvik will start in place of Orjan Nyland. Nyland's pass to Ramos gave Portugal their winner in Oslo.

David Moller Wolfe is available again after serving his suspension and started on Thursday. Alexander Sorloth remains out for the window with a muscle injury.

Solbakken didn't spare anyone after Cardiff, complaining about "far too much heel-and-toe football, too little defending and too poor pressing." Erling Haaland played the full 90 minutes there without scoring, but he's still on 65 international goals and has three in this group.

Portugal vs Norway Head-to-Head Record

Portugal have won nine of the 12 meetings, Norway have won one and two have been drawn. Portugal have won the last three.

Haaland's goal in Oslo eight days ago was Norway's first against Portugal since that 1-0 win in 2010, and both meetings in Portugal since then went to the hosts.

Portugal vs Norway Tactical Analysis

Portugal's shape in Copenhagen was the one Jesus has settled on: a 4-2-3-1 with Bruno Fernandes as the No. 10, Leao and Neto wide, and Ramos up front. It produced four goals from four different scorers, and Bruno assisted two of them. The two-man screen of Ruben Neves and Vitinha controlled the ball, Vitinha arrived late to score a header, and Cancelo pushed on from right-back to open the scoring.

They haven't kept a clean sheet since the opener against Wales. Denmark scored twice in Copenhagen, and Haaland's goal in Oslo came from a loose ball after a free kick.

Norway's problems are bigger. Solbakken's complaint about pressing goes to the heart of how they play, because they need to win the ball high to get it to Haaland quickly, and in Cardiff they didn't. With Heggem and Ryerson gone and a new goalkeeper, the defence that has to cope with Portugal's movement is effectively rebuilt in two days.

Portugal vs Norway Key Matchups

Erling Haaland vs Ruben Dias and Renato Veiga

Haaland scored against this pair in Oslo from a loose ball after a free kick, and he's Norway's route to a goal. If Portugal deny him service from wide, Norway have very little else.

Rafael Leao vs Marcus Pedersen

Leao started in Copenhagen and Pedersen is the likely stand-in at right-back for Ryerson. It's the matchup Portugal are most likely to target early.

Martin Odegaard vs Vitinha and Ruben Neves

Odegaard set up Bobb's goal in Cardiff and is the one Norwegian who can find Haaland between the lines. Portugal's midfield two have to keep him facing his own goal.

Portugal vs Norway Odds

Portugal are clear favourites, though shorter than you might expect given the gap in the table and Norway's week.

Only three books had this game priced two days out, with BetMGM and FanDuel not yet posted.

Odds from OddsJam. For more markets, see RotoWire's soccer betting page and the best sportsbook promos.

Portugal vs Norway Prediction

Norway's defensive changes are difficult to ignore. Heggem is suspended, Ryerson has left the camp and Selvik is replacing Nyland in goal, leaving Solbakken to reorganize the back line only days after the defeat in Cardiff.

Portugal are well placed to exploit that uncertainty. Ramos has settled into the center-forward role, Bruno Fernandes remains the creative hub and Jesus can still introduce players such as Joao Felix and Bernardo Silva if the game needs changing.

Norway retain an obvious threat through Haaland, who scored in the reverse fixture and remains capable of turning limited service into chances. Portugal have also conceded in each of their last two matches, so another goal for the visitors would not be surprising.

Over 90 minutes, though, Portugal's attacking depth and Norway's defensive disruption should create the clearer advantage.

Score Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Norway

Portugal and Norway Upcoming Fixtures

Portugal host Denmark on Nov. 14, while Norway host Wales the same day.

For squad news and injury updates through the international window, see RotoWire's soccer news feed and injury report.