Premier League Anytime Goalscorer Predictions: Gameweek 6

Premier League anytime goalscorer predictions for Gameweek 6, including goal, assist and goal-involvement probabilities for every projected starter.

Updated on September 30, 2026 10:21AM EST

Premier League Anytime Goalscorer Predictions: Gameweek 6

By:

Adam Zdroik

Updated on September 30, 2026 10:21AM EST

DFS Soccer Content

Every start/sit, every waiver, every trade. We make the call.

Premier League Anytime Goalscorer Predictions: Gameweek 6

This week's Premier League anytime goalscorer predictions are built from the same weekly player projections I produce for RotoWire's fantasy rankings. Projected goals and assists for every expected starter across all 10 matches are converted through a Poisson calculation into model-based probabilities of scoring, assisting or recording either return.

Sort by Goal Probability to find the most likely scorers, Assist Probability for the leading creators or Goal Involvement Probability for the players most likely to register a goal or assist. Team Goal Share shows how much of each club's projected scoring is assigned to an individual player.

For full-slate FPL rankings and captain picks, see this week's FPL Gameweek Rankings.

The tables below show the leading Gameweek 6 players by scoring, assist and overall goal-involvement probability. Model Odds convert each scoring probability into an implied fair price; they are not current sportsbook odds.

Top 10 Premier League Anytime Goalscorer Probabilities GW6

Player	Match	Goal Probability	Model Odds
Erling Haaland	Liverpool vs. Manchester City	44.1%	+127
Igor Thiago	Aston Villa vs. Brentford	39.4%	+154
Viktor Gyokeres	Arsenal vs. Leeds United	39.1%	+156
Gonzalo Garcia	Ipswich Town vs. Fulham	36.7%	+172
Thierno Barry	Hull City vs. Everton	36.6%	+173
Cole Palmer	Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth	36.4%	+175
Alexander Isak	Liverpool vs. Manchester City	35.7%	+180
Oliver McBurnie	Hull City vs. Everton	34.8%	+187
Danny Welbeck	Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth	34.6%	+189
Liam Delap	Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest	33.4%	+200

Full Premier League Goal and Assist Probability Board

Loading this week's probabilities…

Players to Watch in the Gameweek 6 Goalscorer Rankings

The players below reflect the latest projections at the time of publication; the live board may change as team news develops.

Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal vs. Leeds United): Gyokeres benefits from the highest projected team total of the week, putting Arsenal's expected starting forward among the leading goalscorer candidates. With Kai Havertz unlikely to start because of injury, Gyokeres comes into view.

Danny Welbeck (Chelsea vs. Bournemouth): Welbeck sits near the top of the board in one of the week's strongest projected scoring environments. His individual projection and Chelsea's team total give him one of the best combinations on the slate. Similar to Gyokeres, his value is tied to Joao Pedro's injury.

Erling Haaland (Manchester City at Liverpool): Haaland remains Manchester City's primary scoring threat in the highest-projected match of the week. The difficult opponent is offset by his share of City's expected goals and the overall attacking environment.

Igor Thiago (Brentford at Aston Villa): Thiago ranks among the leading forwards in another favorable scoring environment and accounts for a significant portion of Brentford's projected output, which is the case every week.

Top 5 Premier League Assist Probabilities GW6

Player	Match	Assist Probability	Projected Assists
Bruno Fernandes	Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur	33.7%	0.41
Julio Enciso	Ipswich Town vs. Fulham	25.8%	0.30
Jack Grealish	Hull City vs. Everton	25.5%	0.29
Cole Palmer	Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth	23.1%	0.26
Bukayo Saka	Arsenal vs. Leeds United	23.0%	0.26

Top 5 Premier League Goal Involvement Probabilities Gameweek 6

Player	Match	Goal Involvement Probability	Projected Goals / Assists
Bruno Fernandes	Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur	53.9%	0.36 / 0.41
Cole Palmer	Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth	51.1%	0.45 / 0.26
Erling Haaland	Liverpool vs. Manchester City	50.9%	0.58 / 0.13
Morgan Rogers	Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth	45.9%	0.37 / 0.24
Bukayo Saka	Arsenal vs. Leeds United	45.9%	0.35 / 0.26

Highest-Scoring Premier League Matches This Week

Based on the latest projections, four matches stand above the rest for combined expected goals:

Liverpool vs. Manchester City opened the international break with the highest total, but that number has dropped a bit. That doesn't stop Erling Haaland from being near the top as always.
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea is right in line with it, aided by the leaky Chelsea defense. The question will be on Joao Pedro's injury status coming out of the break. Either way, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers figure to benefit.
Manchester United vs Tottenham are next highest on the list for the main reason being Tottenham's defense. United have one of the higher projected totals of GW6.

How the Goalscorer and Goal Involvement Rankings Work

Each player's projected goals and assists are converted into probabilities using a Poisson calculation:

Probability of at least one event = 1 − exp(−X)

For Goal Probability, X represents projected goals. For Assist Probability, it represents projected assists. Goal Involvement Probability combines projected goals and assists to estimate the chance of recording at least one goal or assist.

The resulting percentages are model estimates rather than sportsbook prices. Goal Probability should not be interpreted as betting value without comparing it with available anytime goalscorer odds.

Team Goal Share divides a player's projected goals by his team's total goal projection. It identifies players responsible for the largest portion of their club's expected scoring, while Goal Involvement Probability provides the broader view for FPL captaincy and attacking-return potential.

The rankings cover projected starters and update when RotoWire's expected lineups and projections change. They do not include probabilities for players expected to begin on the bench.

Premier League Gameweek 6 Schedule

Saturday, October 10

7:30 a.m. ET: Arsenal vs. Leeds United
10:00 a.m. ET: Aston Villa vs. Brentford
10:00 a.m. ET: Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth
10:00 a.m. ET: Ipswich Town vs. Fulham
10:00 a.m. ET: Sunderland vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
12:30 p.m. ET: Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Sunday, October 11

9:00 a.m. ET: Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest
9:00 a.m. ET: Hull City vs. Everton
11:30 a.m. ET: Liverpool vs. Manchester City

Monday, October 12

3:00 p.m. ET: Coventry City vs. Newcastle United

More Ways to Use This Week's Projections

Questions on how to read the board, or a captain call you're stuck on? Find me on Twitter @RotoZdroik or in the subscriber Discord.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.