Premier League Gameweek 4 Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions

Premier League Gameweek 4 brings the first Manchester Derby of the season, an Arsenal defense at Sunderland that's daring anyone to score on it, and another five-game Saturday slate to open things up. Our GW4 best bets include Manchester City's moneyline at Old Trafford, another clean sheet for Arsenal and a return trip to the Alexander Isak well.

Last week went our way in a few spots. Alexander Isak's two-plus shots on target prop was academic within nine minutes, as he had an early brace against Ipswich before some of us had finished our coffee. Arsenal's moneyline cashed too, even though Morgan Rogers scored the only goal they've allowed all season on a scrappy early strike against Chelsea. The one that got away was Fulham's moneyline at home to Crystal Palace, where their attacking fullbacks were exposed again and Palace left wing-back Tyrick Mitchell had a bigger say in the result than we'd like to admit.

With several teams still shaking off short weeks after Champions League and League Cup midweeks, check our Premier League injury news and suspensions before locking in your Gameweek 4 bets.

Odds referenced below were pulled Friday morning and will keep moving into the weekend, so check our soccer betting odds board before you lock anything in.

Premier League Gameweek 4 Best Bets

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Best Bets

Aston Villa finally found the net in midweek, scoring three in the Champions League with all the usual suspects getting involved, McGinn, Buendia and a Nicolas Jackson breakaway finish among them. That's led the market to shorten Villa up as home favorites against Forest, but we're not buying the bounce.

Villa and Tottenham are the only two teams in the league yet to score in the Premier League itself, and a midweek explosion against a Champions League opponent on the road doesn't automatically fix that against a genuinely difficult Forest side on a short turnaround. Forest have their own scoring problem, with just two goals in three league games, both against Liverpool, but they've also only conceded three total and looked competitive in defeat against Tottenham last week. We like Forest's double chance paired with under 2.5 goals, which prices out to +156. If you'd rather keep it to one leg, under 2.5 goals by itself is out at -120, and the draw on its own sits at +245 for anyone who thinks this settles into the same low-event pattern we saw from both sides last week.

Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction & Best Bets

Liverpool are minus-220 at home against a Fulham side that's been the league's worst defense so far, largely because Marco Silva's fullbacks push so high up the pitch that they're consistently exposed behind. Fulham have shipped goals early in all three of their matches this season, and we don't expect that pattern to change at Anfield off the back of a short week for the hosts.

We're going back to the well on Alexander Isak's two-plus shots on target prop, which hit inside nine minutes last week and is out again at +110. He's already tied for the team lead in shots this season, and with Cody Gakpo unlikely to be fully right after cramping up in midweek, the ball should keep finding him early and often. If you want a team-side lean instead, over 1.5 goals in the first half is available at +112 given how quickly Fulham have been conceding this season.

With several teams still shaking off short weeks after Champions League and League Cup action, check our Premier League injury news and predicted lineups before locking in your Gameweek 4 bets.

Saturday Premier League GW4 Best Bets & Predictions

Bournemouth host Brentford in what should be an entertaining one on paper, though neither of us has a strong enough angle on it to put in the card this week.

Chelsea at home against Hull City is the more interesting watch than the odds suggest. Chelsea are the biggest favorites on the board, but Hull are unbeaten through three games and playing with real belief, and Chelsea themselves made a game of it against Arsenal last weekend despite losing. We still think Chelsea get the job done at home, we just wouldn't be shocked if Hull make them work for it.

Crystal Palace hosting Ipswich Town is a spot we like for goals at both ends. Palace's moneyline is out around -115 if you want to back the home side outright, but we're more drawn to both teams to score at -145, since Ipswich have shown they can create looks even in defeat and Palace have had their own defensive hiccups this season. Both teams to score paired with over 2.5 goals was also available at plus money as we recorded, so shop around if you want to add the total to the same ticket.

Tottenham vs Everton Prediction & Best Bets

Tottenham are still searching for their first win of the season, and a draw last weekend at least stopped the bleeding after a difficult start. Their attack remains the bigger concern, and we're not ready to back them at home off what we've seen so far, even as the very slight favorite at -105.

Everton have had a reasonably solid start under David Moyes, and we like their double chance here at -130. Pairing that with under 2.5 goals, priced separately at -110, gets you a combined +180, which is the number we like best. Tottenham are somehow leading the league in corners despite everything else going wrong, so a race to seven corners at +135 is worth a look if you want a different way into this game, and on the total corners market itself, the over 10.5 is out at -120 if you think both wings stay busy all afternoon.

Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction & Best Bet

At this point we're just going to keep betting Arsenal's defense until it stops working. They haven't conceded a shot worth worrying about all season outside of that early Morgan Rogers strike against Chelsea, and Sunderland, even playing at home, aren't the team to end that run.

Arsenal to win to nil is out at +110 at DraftKings, though it's worth shopping around since some other books have it closer to -115 on the team clean sheet market instead, which pays worse. We're also going back to Arsenal over 1.5 team goals at +140, since this defense traveling with this attack should be good for multiple goals most weeks even if last week's spread bet came up just short.

Manchester Derby: Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction & Best Bets

Manchester City were in Porto on Tuesday and won comfortably. Manchester United play again on Thursday, after our show airs, in what should be a routine home fixture, but a quick turnaround before hosting the league's best team on Sunday is not exactly ideal preparation.

City are away favorites at +115, and we like that price given how much depth they've added at exactly the moment United are leaning on their bench. City's reinforcements up and down the spine of the team make their squad much harder to hurt with a rotation or two than United's. Erling Haaland has scored eight goals against Manchester United in his last seven league meetings with them, and after a slow start to his own season he's turned it back on over the last two games. We like Haaland anytime goalscorer at +115, and if you want the safer version of the same read, his two-plus shots on target prop is out at -125.

Monday Night Football: Leeds United vs Newcastle Prediction & Best Bets

Leeds host Newcastle to close out Gameweek 4, and this is a rare Monday game we're actually looking forward to. Leeds are only fresh off a 6-3 loss in the FA Cup, but domestically we think both of these sides are shaping up to fight for a top-ten finish all season, and an even matchup like this one keeps pointing us toward the draw. It's out at +240.

If you'd rather not gamble on the exact result, under 2.5 goals is available at +100. Leeds have one of the better defenses in the league and should limit Newcastle's chances, and we think Newcastle's own back line is sturdy enough under the lights to return the favor. A tight 1-1 or 1-0 finish feels like the most likely outcome either way.

Premier League GW4 Best Bets: Our Top 3

Check our Premier League injury news hub before kickoff, especially for Chelsea's midfield and anyone who featured in midweek European or League Cup action. Good luck out there, and we'll see you next week for Gameweek 5.