This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
Gameweek Four begins with the squads coming back from a weekend off thanks to the international break. As clubs prepare for their Gameweek 4 opponents, it is time again to ready your Fantasy Premier League squad. Once again we come to you with low-cost options to help fill your roster or to help you afford more of the expensive players.
Now that we are three matches into the season, trends can start to appear. One of the important trends to take note of is number of shots. This is true both in shots taken and the shots allowed by a club. The basic thought process is that the more times you put the ball on net, the more chances you have to score. This fits right in with the basics of fantasy soccer. You want to increase the chances your forwards and midfielders have to contribute to scoring while decreasing the chances your defenders and goalkeeper will allow a goal.
Shot attempts can go a long way to predicting these opportunities. If you go back the past three seasons, of the nine clubs that finished the season in the top-three in shot attempts, all finished in the top five for goals scored. Of the clubs that finished in the bottom-three for shot attempts, seven out of nine finished in the bottom five for goals scored. When looking for matchups to exploit, you want to search for opponents that either allow a lot of shot attempts (for attacking players) or do not attempt many shots (for defensive players). Just be sure not to let the Tottenham vs Newcastle matchup from last season enter your memory.
With that in mind, there are some good matchups to exploit in Gameweek 4 with a number of cheap fantasy options.
Goalkeeper:
Julian Speroni vs. Burnley
Speroni has been a huge disappointment so far this season. After being one of the top goalkeepers in the second half of last season, much was expected of the Crystal Palace stopper. But unrest at manager has led to defensive issues this season. Tony Pulis' defensive mindset is no longer in town, and Crystal Palace have struggled to keep the opposition out of the net. Only Queens Park Rangers have allowed more goals than the Eagles, which could make the Speroni recommendation seem questionable. But a chance to host newly-promoted Burnley could be all this defense needs to find a clean sheet. Burnley have managed just one shot attempt on target in their previous away match this season. Overall, they average a paltry two shot attempts on target. Speroni should have an easier go at it this weekend in an attempt to find some fantasy relevance and get back on track.
Honorable Mention: Fraser Foster vs. Newcastle
Newcastle have struggled to score this season and will likely be without Siem de Jong, making for a nice matchup for a goalkeeper that has a clean sheet in his last home match and allowed just one goal in his last two matches overall.
Defender:
Jose Fonte vs. Newcastle
Fonte has the same opportunity for a clean sheet as Foster, this week's goalkeeper Honorable Mention. Newcastle looked uninspiring in their previous road match this season and will be without one of their key attackers. The matchup plays well for Fonte to pick up a clean sheet, and he's also a threat on the attack. While he has not attempted a shot so far this season, he has assisted on three attempts and continues to involve himself on offense. The shot attempts will come as he has contributed three goals last season on 20 attempts, good enough to finish in the top-20 in both categories at his position.
Honorable Mention: Martin Kelly vs. Burnley – A key player in the Crystal Palace back line, he also is the most active on the attack of the Eagles' defenders.
Midfielder:
Stewart Downing at Hull City
Downing has been all over the West Ham attack this season, as he has attempted seven shots and assisted on six more. Although he has only one goal to show for his work, his two no-goal performances came against tough defenses in Southampton and Tottenham. Hull City should provide less resistance this weekend, as the Tigers have allowed the third-most shot attempts this season. Downing should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball on net Monday, and when he is not busy taking shots of his own, he will be setting up shot attempts for the forwards in front of him. The addition of Mauro Zarate up front for West Ham increases the chances that a Downing pass could lead to an assist.
Honorable Mention: Jason Puncheon vs. Burnley – Playing what is likely the worst squad in the league is good for all Crystal Palace players, especially their leading shot-taker.
Forward:
Connor Wickham vs. Tottenham
Despite keeping two clean sheets in their first three matches, the Tottenham defense has allowed plenty of shots. In fact, the 17 shot attempts they allowed in their loss to Liverpool was not even the most they have allowed this season. In their only away match back in Gameweek 1, Tottenham allowed 18 shots to a West Ham United squad that attempted just four shots in their most recent match. The high shots allowed total bodes well for someone like Wickham. Despite having yet to score, Wickham leads Sunderland with eight shot attempts as he continues to get all the minutes up front. If he continues to get the opportunities, his conversion rate should start to climb closer to the 20 percent conversion rate he had last season. The matchup against Tottenham should provide some good chances.
Honorable Mention: Mame Biram Diouf vs. Leicester City – No one has allowed more shot attempts than Leicester City this season. This should lead to good things for the new Stoke striker, who scored 19 goals over the last two Bundesliga seasons.
