This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
Welcome back for Week 10 of the Bargain Bin. A big thank you to Andrew Laird for filling in so admirably in my absence. Kudos for nominating Diafra Sakho (one goal) and Wilfried Bony (two goals) as you have forced me to up my game. And I shall.Let us start by taking a look at the fixtures in Gameweek 10. Six of the current top-10 teams (I'm putting Tottenham at 10 even though their goal differential has them sitting in 11th place) will travel for away matches either Saturday or Sunday. The typical reaction to seeing this information is to stay away, as you would rather have players playing at home than on the road. This is partly right; home teams have averaged 1.63 goals per match this season while that number drops to 1.25 for away squads. However, that is not the entire picture.
The opponent plays a large role in how a team is expected to perform on the road. To make things easy, we'll break the league into thirds based on place in the table: Top Seven, Middle Six, Bottom Seven. We can use these groups to show that strength of opponent will play a role in away match success.
Since we are more likely to be concerned with players on the better teams, let's see how the Top Seven teams fare when on the road over the last six weeks.
| Goals Scored | Goals Allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 Season Average | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Away Match Average v. Top Seven | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Away Match Average v. Middle Six | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Away Match Average v. Bottom Seven | 1.9 | 0.6 |
When they travelled to face another top team their goals per match dropped by half a goal, while they allowed almost a goal more. However, when they travelled to face a team at the bottom of the table, it does not appear to affect them offensively, as they score right on their season average. Defensively, the travel does not seem to have an adverse affect as they hold bottom-table opponents to less than a goal per match. We can run the same numbers for the Middle Six teams over the last six weeks:
| Goals Scored | Goals Allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 Season Average | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Away Match Average v. Top Seven | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Away Match Average v. Middle Six | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Away Match Average v. Bottom Seven | 2.1 | 2.1 |
The numbers offensively show the same trend. If you have a striker or midfielder playing on the road against a lesser opponent, you should not be worried about their performance. However, if they are playing an away match against teams in the top third of the table, there may be some cause for concern. Of the six "Top-10" teams playing away matches this weekend, five (Liverpool, Swansea City, Southampton, Tottenham, and West Ham) will all play teams below them in the table. Only Manchester United will face a difficult away trip in the Manchester Derby. Just be sure to keep this all in mind as you set your lineups in Gameweek 10 and beyond. Don't be too concerned with match location unless it involves traveling to face a top-third team.
Goalkeeper
Wojciech Szczesny vs. Burnley
Arsenal have kept only two clean sheets this season, and surprisingly both have come away from Emirates Stadium. However, both have come against teams that rank in the bottom five for goals scored this season (Aston Villa and Sunderland). You know who else ranks in the bottom five for goals scored this season? Burnley, with just 0.56 goals per match. Szczesny should have a good opportunity to keep his third (and second consecutive) clean sheet.
Honorable Mention:Julian Speroni vs. Sunderland – Palace's two clean sheets have come at home against Leicester City and Burnley. Both have averaged fewer than one goal per away match this season, as have Sunderland.
Defender
Ryan Bertrand at Hull City
Bertrand and Southampton are one of the teams we discussed playing a team below them in the table away from home. The story for Southampton this season has been how they have been able to maintain competency despite selling off nearly all of their key contributors from last season. Much of that is due to their fantastic signings this offseason, which includes Bertrand, who is on-loan from Chelsea. He has helped Southampton become the best defense in the league, allowing just 0.56 goals per match. On top of that, they face a Hull City team that has allowed the most shot attempts to opposing defenders. All a good recipe for success for Bertrand, who leads Southampton defenders in shot attempts and assisted shot attempts.
Honorable Mention:Calum Chambers vs. Burnley – Clean sheet potential, plus he leads Arsenal defenders in shot attempts and is third in assisted shots.
Midfielder
Ross Barkley vs. Swansea City
Bargain Bin favorite Ross Barkley has returned, and despite starting last week on the bench, he should see plenty of playing time against Swansea City this weekend. He has played limited minutes since returning from a serious knee injury, but Barkley has been active with four shot attempts (one on target) and five assisted shot attempts in his two matches. His nine scoring chances have him tied for the team-lead over that span. One other note from PremierLeague.com shows how Barkley scored the match winner in both league matches against Swansea City last season. It may not end up being a match winner, but look for Barkley to extend his goal-scoring streak against the Swans this weekend.
Honorable Mention:Riyad Mahrez vs. West Bromwich Albion – Leicester City have scored at least two goals in three of their four home matches this season. They should score this time around and Mahrez leads the team in shot attempts and is fourth in assisted shots.
Forward
Fraizer Campbell vs. Sunderland
Campbell has three goals in his last five matches and has attempted 11 shots during that time. Sunderland will pose very little threat defensively as the Black Cats have allowed the second-most away goals per match this season at 2.75. He has been the guy up front for Crystal Palace and there will not be many better chances for him to score than this weekend.
Honorable Mention:Saido Berahino at Leicester City – A trip to the league's second-worst home defense (two goals allowed per match) should not scare you away from West Brom's leading goal scorer.
