DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Boxing Day Value Plays

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Boxing Day Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.


Time (EST)Home (win odds)(draw odds)Away (win odds)
7:45:00 AM Stoke City (9/4) (9/4) Manchester United (13/10)
10:00:00 AM Aston Villa (13/8) (11/5) West Ham (9/5)
10:00:00 AM Bournemouth (6/4) (23/10) Crystal Palace (15/8)
10:00:00 AM Chelsea (4/9) (7/2) Watford (13/2)
10:00:00 AM Liverpool (10/11) (14/5) Leicester City (14/5)
10:00:00 AM Manchester City (2/9) (11/2) Sunderland (12/1)
10:00:00 AM Swansea City (21/20) (11/5) West Brom (3/1)
10:00:00 AM Tottenham (4/9) (7/2) Norwich City (13/2)
12:30:00 PM Newcastle (21/10) (12/5) Everton (13/10)
2:45:00 PM Southampton (11/4) (5/2) Arsenal (even)

Odds from PaddyPower.com as of 10:00 a.m. EST on Dec. 24

As always, Step 1 in building a good lineup: make sure your players are starting. There is a bit of guesswork in projecting lineups until they are actually announced, and all recommendations and projections are subject to change based on this. All said, be sure to check the lineups page approximately one hour before kickoff.

Goalkeepers:

Joe Hart, MCI v. SUN ($4,400): Recent studies have shown that targeting the keeper most likely get a win and clean sheet isn't necessarily the easy route to an optimal lineup (saves, baby, saves), but at 2/9 and hosting relegation favorite Sunderland, Hart still screams cash game target. Making goalkeeper your last selection when building a lineup may be a reasonable approach though, as I'm not sure I'd downgrade my skill positions to fit in Hart over the candidates priced just below him.

Brad Guzan, AVL v. WHU ($3,500): Aston Villa has been the worst defense in the Premier League over the past six weeks by allowing 11 goals, but they've been competent at home defensively, most notably by posting a clean sheet against Manchester City. Aston Villa is last in the table by a considerable margin, but they get to host a West Ham side that hasn't won a game since October and hasn't scored in three consecutive matches (44 shots without a goal).

Wayne Hennessey, CRY at BOU ($3,700): Bournemouth is often a good team to target for opposing goalkeepers as they don't have a strong striker and take just 3 percent of their shots from inside the six-yard box. This means lots of shots from distance, which have a much lower conversion percentage. Hennessey hasn't allowed more than one goal in eight outings and has proven very competent for a Palace side that has taken 10 points from their last four matches and own the third-best away record in the Premier League behind on Leicester and Arsenal.

Other goalkeepers to consider: Boaz Myhill, WBA at SWA ($3,300); Tim Howard, EVE at NEW ($3,900); Petr Cech, ARS at SOU ($4,200); Thibaut Courtois, CHE v. WAT ($4,000); Hugo Lloris, TOT v. NOR ($4,300)

Defenders:

Leighton Baines, EVE at NEW ($4,300): The price is steadily climbing toward where it should be, it's not there yet. The leftback contributed two goals and nine assists in 31 games last season (he's had as many as five and 11, respectively, in a season) and resides over both free kicks and corners (eight last week) giving him a great baseline to build upon.

Branislav Ivanovic, CHE v. WAT ($4,000): Is last year's top defender back? He sure looks to have finally turned the page. He got on the score sheet last weekend, he's been crossing the ball more and he's destined for his first assist of the season sooner rather than later. He's even been competent defensively, winning tackles and intercepting the ball.

Bacary Sagna, MCI v. SUN ($3,500): Sagna was exquisite last weekend against Arsenal with eight crossesand six interceptions while assisting Yaya Toure's wonder goal. In recent weeks, Sagna has been less impressive, so this is hoping last weekend is the start of an uptrend.

Other defenders to consider: Alberto Moreno, LIV v. LEI ($4,700); Kyle Naughton, SWA v. WBA ($3,300); Danny Rose, TOT v. NOR ($4,200); Laurent Koscielny, ARS at SOU ($3,000); Chris Smalling, MUN at STK ($3,400); Seamus Coleman, EVE at NEW ($4,400)

Midfielders:

Gylfi Sigurdsson, SWA v. WBA ($5,600): Sigurdsson has not scored since Oct. 24 against Aston Villa. He has taken 18 shots since then; saying he is due would be one word. Jamie Vardy, the league's top scorer, is averaging a goal for every four shots. Now, the majority of Sigurdsson's shots come from outside of box, so the comparison to Vardy, who takes over 75 percent of his shots from inside the penalty area, may be slightly misleading, but still, an 18-shot scoreless streak is an anomaly. Sigurdsson's lacking in assists (just one this season) is odd too after he had 10 last season. He also has all free kick and penalty duties, and he took eight corners last weekend.

Jordan Veretout, AVL v. WHU ($3,500): Veretout has picked up assists in three of his last four games while averaging 17.25 fantasy points per game over that span. The Aston Villa midfielder is designated on corners (he took seven last weekend) and ranked second in total crosses across the entire Premier League last weekend.

Daley Blind, MUN at STK ($3,500): The seemingly position-less Blind keeps on reaching value and not rising in price. He's still listed as a midfielder, but seems to now be moving over to fullback instead of centerback. So, he'll now pick up some open-play crosses in addition to his corner-taking duties. From this position last weekend he picked up six open-play crosses and seven corners as part of a 19-fantasy-point performance.

Other midfielders to consider: Willian, CHE v. SUN ($7,000); Dele Alli, TOT v. NOR ($4,300); Philippe Coutinho, LIV v. LEI ($6,600); Kevin De Bruyne, MCI v. SUN ($7,400); Yaya Toure, MCI v. SUN ($6,000); Ross Barkley, EVE at NEW ($6,800); Yannick Bolasie, CRY at BOU ($6,000); Wilfried Zaha, CRY at BOU ($4,500); Matt Ritchie, BOU v. CRY ($6,400); Jordan Henderson, LIV v. LEI ($4,000); David Silva, MCI v. SUN ($5,800); Christian Eriksen, TOT v. NOR ($6,900); Aaron Ramsey, ARS at SOU ($5,900)

Forwards:

Mauro Zarate, WHU at AVL ($4,800): Cheap with great peripheral stats and a high floor, Zarate is a forward cash game lineups are built around. Zarate has reached double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three starts despite not scoring a goal, though he did score in the match before that while racking up 33 fantasy points. He takes corners, crosses from open play and takes a high number of shots.

Romelu Lukaku, EVE at NEW ($8,100): Lukaku has scored in seven consecutive matches. Newcastle finds themselves just one spot above relegation with one of the worst defensive records in the Premier League; it's hard to see them being the ones that contain Lukaku's great run.

Sergio Aguero, MCI v. SUN ($8,000): Though made of glass, Aguero is a molten goal scorer and Sunderland traveling to the Etihad will have no hope of containing him. He scored five goals in 63 minutes against Newcastle at home earlier this season. Don't let recent biases towards the successes of Vardy and Lukaku blind you from who the actual best goal scorer in the Premier League is.

Other forwards to consider: Jordan Ayew, AVL v. WHU ($4,200); Christian Benteke, LIV v. LEI ($6,200); Connor Wickham, CRY at BOU ($4,000); Memphis Depay, MUN at STK ($6,500); Pedro, CHE v. WAT ($6,100); Olivier Giroud, ARS at SOU ($7,000); Harry Kane, TOT v. NOR ($7,400); Theo Walcott ($5,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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