Third-round play continues at the Cincinnati Open on Tuesday. There will be plenty of Americans in action Tuesday, including a fresh face that has a chance to put his name on the map with an upset opportunity.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Michael Zheng (+150) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti's .517 career win rate on hard court is substantially lower than the 15th-ranked Italian's .654 mark on clay and .621 mark on grass. The fast hard courts in Cincinnati are a particularly poor fit for his elongated swings, which is why Musetti is just 3-4 in his career at this tournament. Zheng is coming off a top-30 win over Ugo Humbert in the previous round, and the back-to-back NCAA singles champion did an excellent job of taking care of his serve in that match, saving the only break point he faced. Zheng is a far more capable player than his current No. 110 ranking suggests, as this is the 22-year-old American's first full year on the ATP Tour.
Honorable Mention
Juan Manuel Cerundolo (+339) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Taylor Fritz (-359) vs. Daniel Merida
Fritz is 18-9 on hard courts this year, including a recent title in Washington. His subsequent loss to Thiago Agustin Tirante at the Canadian Open looks much more defensible considering Tirante followed that up with a win over Novak Djokovic here. Merida is enjoying a strong first season on the ATP Tour, but the 40th-ranked Spaniard has yet to prove he can go toe-to-toe with top-10 players such as Fritz. The 21-year-old Merida has a record of 18-8 overall, but he's 0-3 against top-25 competition with a 1-8 record in sets in such matches. Fritz should cruise through his service games in these fast conditions, keeping constant pressure on the serve of Merida, who had two aces and nine double faults in his second-round win over Zizou Bergs.
Madison Keys (-288) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Keys has been a tough out since the start of the grass-court swing, with a 12-4 record over that span and only one loss to a player ranked outside the top 12. The 31-year-old American won this tournament back in 2019 and has the tools to succeed on the fast hard courts of Cincinnati as one of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Siniakova is the top-ranked doubles player, but she's 20 spots back of Keys in singles at No. 44. Both of the previous encounters between these two resulted in straight-set wins for Keys.
Honorable Mention
Joao Fonseca (-480) vs. Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Frances Tiafoe (+124) vs. Learner Tien
Tiafoe reached the final here in 2024, and his game fits the fast conditions better than Tien's given the former's edge in serving power and aggressive approach. Tien has stretched his edge in the rankings over Tiafoe to 11 spots coming off a semifinal run at the Canadian Open, but these two Americans have had similar results on hard courts overall this year, as Tien is 15-8 on this surface while Tiafoe is 16-9. They have split two previous meetings, with Tien triumphing 7-5 in the deciding set when they played in Delray Beach earlier this year. This all-American matchup looks like a true toss-up given the tale of the tape, making Tiafoe a nice value as the slight underdog.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-122) vs. Sara Bejlek
Alexandrova has struggled for most of 2026 with a sub-.500 record, but the world No. 18 has found her game in recent weeks, notching a win over top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka en route to the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open. She can set up a rematch with Sabalenka by advancing past the 35th-ranked Bejlek, who has a bright future at age 20 but hasn't found much success against top-20 competition. Since beating Alexandrova in the final of Abu Dhabi in February, Bejlek has failed to win a set in four subsequent matches against top-20 opponents.
Honorable Mention
Iva Jovic (-173) vs. Marie Bouzkova
