All four Cincinnati Open semifinals are on the docket Saturday. Three top-five seeds in the women's draw have reached the semifinals, while the men's side will have a first-time Masters 1000 champion. Four of the eight players set to take the court Saturday are American.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Jessica Pegula (+201) vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek is riding a 10-match winning streak, so it makes sense that she's favored in this match, but Pegula's odds certainly seem to understate the American's chances. Pegula has a two-spot edge in the rankings at No. 3, and while she has come up short against fellow top players on the Grand Slam stage, Pegula is more than capable of going toe to toe with Swiatek in a WTA 1000. Iga holds a narrow 7-5 head-to-head edge, including 5-4 on hard courts. The fast hard courts at the Cincinnati Open are a more natural fit for Pegula's flatter strokes, though Swiatek has proven she can win in all sorts of court conditions.
Honorable Mention
Sara Bejlek (+303) vs. Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Arthur Fils (-286) vs. Flavio Cobolli
Fils has one of the best fast-court skill sets on the ATP Tour, and he has put his power and shot-making on display in this tournament, defeating top-10 seeds Jiri Lehecka and Alex de Minaur en route to his third ATP 1000 semifinal of 2026. The third time could be the charm for the talented Frenchman, as Fils is clearly favored over Cobolli despite being ranked 11 spots back of the Italian. Cobolli has a mediocre .520 career hard-court winning percentage, while Fils boasts a .622 mark on this surface, and Fils hasn't dropped a set in either of their previous two encounters.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Brandon Nakashima (-128) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Nakashima just won an all-American clash with Taylor Fritz, improving to 9-1 since the start of the Canadian Open, where he reached the final. The 25-year-old Nakashima is playing the best tennis of his career and has moved up to a career-best 22nd in the rankings, leapfrogging Tiafoe by one spot. Tiafoe has won six of their previous seven encounters, but he hasn't faced this version of Nakashima. Like Nakashima's quarterfinal against Fritz, this semifinal could come down to a few key points, and Nakashima's high confidence level has allowed him to seize those important moments in recent matches. Tiafoe made just 44 percent of his first serves in each of his last two matches, and while he got away with that against Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti, it's hard to keep winning with such a low first-serve percentage, especially against a locked-in opponent like Nakashima.
