The Cincinnati Open men's and women's finals will be Sunday. Three of the four players in action Sunday are Americans. Frances Tiafoe tries to make it back-to-back Masters 1000 titles for American men's tennis against Arthur Fils, while former doubles partners Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula go head-to-head in a battle between two top-five WTA singles players.
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All Cincinnati Open matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Sunday's men's and women's championship matches.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Fils vs. Tiafoe
Arthur Fils (-210) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+169)
Just two spots separate these players in the rankings, with Fils holding a two-spot edge at No. 21. The 22-year-old Frenchman would have a larger advantage if not for lengthy injury absences both this year and last year, as he has an impressive 31-10 record overall this year and a 21-7 mark on hard courts. Fils has dropped just one set en route to the final here while beating three top-10 seeds along the way. He beat Tiafoe in their only previous encounter, which went to a deciding set at last year's Miami Open. Nerves could come into play in what is probably the biggest match of Fils' career so far, but he seems to be the type of player that will rise up to meet the moment rather than shrink on the big stage.
Tiafoe has more big-match experience, especially on American hard courts. He reached the Cincinnati Open final in 2024, losing to Jannik Sinner, who recently announced he won't be playing in this year's US Open due to a knee injury. The 28-year-old American is also a two-time Grand Slam semifinalist. He hasn't been able to get over the hump in these big moments, but Tiafoe put forth quality efforts in those matches, as both of his US Open semifinal losses were five-setters. At this tournament, Tiafoe has dropped only one set while defeating four seeded opponents: Learner Tien, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti and Brandon Nakashima. Given Tiafoe's strong form here and ability to feed off the American crowd's energy, the odds understate his chances of winning this match. That being said, he will almost certainly have to improve his first-serve accuracy to win this match, as Tiafoe has yet to make more than 55 percent of first serves in a match during this tournament and has dipped down to 44 percent twice. Fils has more firepower off the ground than Tiafoe's previous opponents and will make the American pay on the second serve, as Fils has done all tournament, generating 16 breaks while being broken just three times himself.
Cincinnati Open Men's Final Prediction: Fils def. Tiafoe 7-6, 4-6, 6-4
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Gauff vs. Pegula
Coco Gauff (-153) vs. Jessica Pegula (+125)
There isn't much separating these two Americans, except Gauff's ability to get the job done on the biggest stages. Pegula currently holds a one-spot edge in the rankings at No. 3, but Gauff is a two-time Grand Slam champion at age 22, while the 32-year-old Pegula is 0-1 in Grand Slam finals. Things are more even at the Masters 1000 level, where Pegula is 4-4 in finals and Gauff is 3-4. Coco won the Cincinnati Open in 2023, but she's just 1-4 in her last five WTA 1000 championship matches. Pegula leads their head-to-head 5-4, including 4-2 on hard courts.
Pegula has had the far tougher path to the final, winning nailbiters in each of her last three matches against top-15 seeds Sorana Cirstea, Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek. Gauff has won 10 consecutive sets since dropping her first set of the tournament to Liudmila Samsonova in the second round, but she has faced only one top-20 opponent in this tournament. Gauff won that match in convincing fashion, knocking off No. 10 seed Marta Kostyuk, 6-2, 6-2. Ultimately, Gauff's stellar defense coupled with the ability to transition more easily to offense in the fast conditions here could prove to be the difference against Pegula, who doesn't have elite power or speed. Pegula is one of the best returners on the WTA Tour and should generate some break chances, but she may find it difficult to hold her own serve consistently against the locked-in returns of Gauff, who has generated six breaks of serve apiece in each of her last two matches.
Cincinnati Open Women's Final Prediction: Gauff def. Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
