The first round of the US Open begins Sunday on the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. A disgruntled top-10 seed is on upset alert early, while a couple of surging players with recent marquee victories look to keep rolling.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Hugo Gaston (+581) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev has played in three U.S. Open finals, winning one, but he's liable to lose to anybody these days. The scuffling Russian comes into this tournament with a 1-4 record in his last five matches, most recently losing his first match at the Winston-Salem Open on Tuesday to Martin Damm, who is ranked outside the top 90. Medvedev has struggled at the majors for the past two years, with a 6-8 in his last 14 Grand Slam matches. The 88th-ranked Gaston is just 4-8 in 2026, but the French lefty has enough game to get the job done if Medvedev implodes, which is certainly on the table.
Pablo Carreno Busta (+311) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Carreno Busta knocked Lehecka out in the first round of the French Open, and Lehecka also lost in the first round of this year's Australian Open to 198th-ranked Arthur Gea, so the 18th-seeded Czech has been vulnerable at the beginning of majors. Unfortunately for Carreno Busta, he has battled some injury issues lately, most recently failing to get through his first match in Winston Salem a week ago. If the 35-year-old Spaniard is at or close to full health, then Carreno Busta certainly has a chance to win another Grand Slam first-round encounter against Lehecka. Carreno Busta is a two-time U.S. Open semifinalist and can still get close to that level for individual matches, even if stringing such performances together has become more challenging at this stage of his career.
Honorable Mention
Jack Kennedy (+418) vs. Lloyd Harris
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Cameron Norrie (-217) vs. Luca Van Assche
Norrie is one of the most consistent big-tournament performers on the ATP Tour. The 29th-seeded Brit has a 6-2 record in US Open first-round matches and made the third round or better 12 times in the span of 15 Grand Slams entered prior to this year's French Open and Wimbledon, when he had a pair of first-round exits while trying to play through a rib injury. Norrie has subsequently healed and reestablished his customary high floor, posting a 7-3 record over his last three tournaments, with losses to Denis Shapovalov, Arthur Fils and Alexander Zverev. Van Assche is unlikely to generate a performance comparable to those players considering he's 0-3 in ATP Tour-level hard-court matches this year and just 14-27 on the surface in his career.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (-282) vs. Adrian Mannarino
Tirante has climbed to a career-high No. 42 in the rankings after defeating Taylor Fritz, Novak Djokovic and Jakub Mensik en route to a 7-2 record across the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open. He'll look to carry over his strong play from those recent hard-court Masters 1000 events to the US Open, where Tirante will be sure to enjoy plenty of crowd support from an Argentinian fanbase that always shows up loud and proud in New York. While the 25-year-old Tirante is playing the best tennis of his career, the 38-year-old Mannarino is well past his prime, as the flat-hitting Frenchman is just 12-23 this year, including a 7-19 mark on surfaces other than hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Leylah Fernandez (-242) vs. Shuai Zhang
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Martin Landaluce (-118) vs. Jacob Fearnley
Landaluce is part of the up-and-coming ATP Spanish contingent. The 20-year-old Spaniard has climbed to 65th in the rankings while reaching Masters 1000 quarterfinals on the hard courts of Miami and the clay courts of Rome. He just beat Jack Draper (arm) and Matteo Arnaldi in Cincinnati leading up to this tournament. The 100th-ranked Fearnley lost in qualifying here and got into the main draw as a lucky loser. Fearnley's just 4-8 in ATP Tour-level matches this year.
Alycia Parks (-106) vs. Taylah Preston
Parks has reached the second round at each of the other three Grand Slams this year, in addition to getting there in four of six WTA 1000 events in which she played in the main draw. The 25-year-old American has a nice opportunity to win her first match at her home major against the 20-year-old Australian Preston, who is ranked 11 spots below Parks at No. 100. Preston has just one top-100 win since the end of the Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Tomas Machac (+113) vs. Toby Samuel
