First-round play is scheduled to wrap up Tuesday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. A top-20 men's seed is on upset alert playing on what has historically been his worst surface against a player coming off a breakout Grand Slam run, while a rising star on the women's side is a safe pick given the high floor she has shown over the past few months.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Arthur Fery (+296) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Fery has moved up to a career-high No. 33 in the rankings thanks to a 10-3 record since the start of Wimbledon. His losses over that span have come against top-10 players Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur, as well as to 36th-ranked Ignacio Buse in the final of last week's tune-up hard-court event in Winston-Salem. The 24-year-old Brit beat Musetti's Italian compatriot Flavio Cobolli at Wimbledon, and Fery also defeated Cobolli at the Australian Open. Hard court is the 14th-ranked Musetti's least-favorite surface, as Musetti's career win rate on hard is just .519, while he boasts .654 and .621 marks on clay and grass, respectively.
Yulia Putintseva (+347) vs. Belinda Bencic
Putintseva has treaded water this season with a pedestrian 23-20 record, but the crafty veteran has reached three Grand Slam quarterfinals in her career, including one at the 2020 U.S. Open. She has dropped to 84th in the rankings but was ranked in the top 20 as recently as last season. Putintseva's mix of spins and drop shots will put Bencic's movement to the test, and it's unclear how healthy the No. 12 seed is after battling a recent hip injury. Bencic withdrew prior to her quarterfinal match at the Canadian Open and then played only one set at the Cincinnati Open before retiring due to this injury just over two weeks ago.
Honorable Mention
Anastasia Potapova (+176) vs. Tereza Valentova
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Eva Lys (-177) vs. Gabriela Knutson
Knutson has done well to qualify into the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time in her career at age 29, but the 184th-ranked Czech has never been ranked higher than No. 155. She's unlikely to handle this step up in competition quality against the 98th-ranked Lys, even with the 24-year-old German having scuffled to a 6-15 record this year. Lys hasn't lost to a player ranked outside the top 120 since last April, winning her last six matches against such opponents while dropping only two sets across those six matches.
Alexandra Eala (-434) vs. Mary Stoiana
Eala has enjoyed a breakout summer, posting an 11-3 record since the start of Wimbledon, with all three losses coming against top-20 competition. The 18th-ranked Filipina has just one loss to a player ranked outside the top 30 in 46 total matches played dating back to the start of the Dubai Championships in mid-February, so she has one of the highest floors on the WTA Tour. Eala's poised to keep rolling against the 122nd-ranked qualifier Stoiana, who will be playing her first Grand Slam main-draw match.
Honorable Mention
Madison Keys (-287) vs. Alina Korneeva
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Juan Manuel Cerundolo (-104) vs. Arthur Gea
The less-accomplished Cerundolo brother is enjoying the best season of his career at age 24. Juan Manuel has climbed into the top 50, and while the highlight of his year was a crazy French Open comeback against an ailing Jannik Sinner, Cerundolo has built on that result with a solid recent hard-court swing. Cerundolo has posted a 5-3 record in the three tournaments leading up to the US Open, notching a pair of top-50 wins while taking top-15 losses against Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime, as well as a defeat against the eventual champion Buse at the Winston-Salem Open. The 87th-ranked Gea won an ATP 250 title in Los Cabos a month ago, but Gea was beaten soundly in qualifying here by Nishesh Basavareddy, 6-3, 6-1, so the Frenchman only got into the draw as a lucky loser. Gea has yet to crack the top 80 in the rankings and has spent most of his season playing Challenger events, so he isn't used to facing opponents of Cerundolo's caliber, while Cerundolo has established himself as a solid ATP Tour payer.
Maria Sakkari (-165) vs. Robin Montgomery
The 187th-ranked Montomgery did well to get though qualifying here, but she has yet to win a main-draw level hard-court match this year. Sakkari is no longer the top-10 player she was in her prime, but she has climbed into the seeded range here and has quietly been a tough out on hard courts all year. The 31-year-old Athenian is 14-9 on hard courts in 2026, with six of those losses coming against top-20 competition. Even with the crowd in Montgomery's corner, Sakkari is unlikely to encounter much resistance from the 21-year-old American.
Honorable Mention
Zachary Svajda (-166) vs. Daniel Altmaier
