Third-round action continues Friday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. A pair of top-10 American seeds are poised to take care of business, while a former champion here is on upset alert.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Arthur Rinderknech (+210) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev came into this tournament having dropped four of his last five matches. He snapped that slump with wins over Hugo Gaston and Sebastian Gorzny, but those two players have combined for just five ATP Tour wins this year. Rinderknech is a far higher-caliber opponent, as the big-serving Frenchman has won 18 matches on the ATP Tour this year and is ranked in the top 30. Prime Medvedev beat Rinderknech in straight sets at the 2022 US Open, but Rinderknech defeated the Russian on the hard courts of the Shanghai Masters in 2025. The eighth-ranked Medvedev is just 8-8 across his last 16 Grand Slam matches.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+264) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Alexandrova has a sub-.500 record this year, but the big-hitting veteran has been a top-20 mainstay the past few years and is still holding onto the 19th spot in the rankings. She remains capable of producing dominant tennis when she's on her game, as Alexandrova showed by beating world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka at the Canadian Open last month. Alexandrova has a 2-0 career head-to-head edge over Kostyuk, but they haven't played since 2022. Kostyuk has raised her level the past few months to climb up to 11th in the rankings, but she hasn't been quite as effective on hard courts as grass or clay, with a 9-5 hard-court record since the start of the Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+151) vs. Jiri Lehecka
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Ben Shelton (-385) vs. Denis Shapovalov
Shelton won the Canadian Open last month and boasts an impressive 21-6 record on hard courts this year. Shapovalov is also a big-hitting lefty, but Shelton has the clear edge in athleticism and is able to execute similar tactics better at this stage of their respective careers. Shelton has a 4-0 edge in their head-to-head, and the ninth-ranked American also boasts a 39-spot edge in the rankings over his Canadian counterpart.
Amanda Anisimova (-473) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Anisimova has had a quietly strong hard-court swing, posting a 7-2 record since the start of the Canadian Open. Her two losses over that span have come against top-10 opponents Elina Svitolina and Jessica Pegula, and Anisimova has notched top-20 wins over Alexandra Eala and Linda Noskova during this stretch. The 2025 US Open finalist is unlikely to slow down here against Potapova, whose No. 25 ranking is fueled primarily by strong clay-court results. Potapova came into this tournament with a 3-7 record in her preceding 10 matches, and her two wins here have come against a pair of opponents ranked outside the top 100, so she's still searching for her first top-75 win since the French Open.
Honorable Mention
Linda Noskova (-333) vs. Ann Li
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Alexander Bublik (+139) vs. Tommy Paul
Bublik has a five-spot edge in the rankings at No. 16, and the big server won a five-setter against Paul in the third round of last year's US Open. Paul had taken their previous three meetings, though two of those three went to a deciding set. Bublik has a 15-6 hard-court record this year while Paul sits at 20-10 on this surface. The crowd will be in Paul's corner, but there otherwise isn't much separating these two, with a couple points working in Bublik's favor, which makes Bublik a nice value as the slight underdog in this match.
Mariano Navone (-114) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
We have seen numerous players put together impressive runs fueled by the confidence gained from a marquee win early in a tournament, and Navone could be doing just that on the heels of his first-round upset win over Novak Djokovic. The 49th-ranked Navone backed that victory up by beating French Open quarterfinalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round, setting up this showdown with Argentinian compatriot Etcheverry. Both Argentinians have posted their best results on clay, but Navone has taken a step forward on hard courts with five top-50 wins on this surface since the start of the Canadian Open. Etcheverry is just 7-8 on hard courts this year, and his lone top-50 win on this surface came against Zizou Bergs back at the Miami Open.
Honorable Mention
Jasmine Paolini (+145) vs. Sorana Cirstea
