Third-round action continues Saturday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Two of the sport's brightest young stars are slated to go head-to-head in a matchup involving an American, while a top-10 seed presents nice value against an opponent with limited hard-court success.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Elise Mertens (+209) vs. Naomi Osaka
This match will come down predominantly to how well Osaka plays, as Mertens does everything pretty well around the court but won't be able to control play against the bigger-hitting Osaka. That said, Mertens has beaten Osaka three times in nine previous tries, including two of their last three hard-courts encounters. If Osaka doesn't raise her level compared to the first two rounds, the two-time US Open champion will have a hard time keeping her bid for a third title here alive. Osaka dropped a set to Katerina Siniakova in the second round after needing two tiebreaks to get through Anastasia Zakharova in the first round.
Zizou Bergs (+184) vs. Botic van de Zandschulp
Van de Zandschulp has been a giant killer throughout his career, especially at this tournament, where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in 2024 and Alex de Minaur in the second round this year. The 70th-ranked Dutchman has proven to have a high ceiling, but he also has a low floor, as evidenced by his pedestrian 23-18 record. Bergs has a 33-spot edge in the rankings and four top-50 hard-court wins this year, so the Belgian underdog certainly has a chance in this match, even though van de Zandschulp is capable of reaching far greater heights on his best day.
Honorable Mention
Dane Sweeny (+272) vs. Luciano Darderi
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Karen Khachanov (-196) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Khachanov is playing like the top-20 mainstay he had been for the past few years rather than his current ranking of No. 50. The two-time hard-court Grand Slam semifinalist is coming off a convincing four-set win over No. 3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Khachanov has now made it to the third round of all four Grand Slams this year. The 97th-ranked Bonzi has never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam in 19 previous main-draw appearances, and both of their previous encounters have gone Khachanov's way.
Mirra Andreeva (-486) vs. Nikola Bartunkova
Andreeva has had a phenomenal season, with a 42-13 record and three titles, including the French Open. The 19-year-old Russian has matured this year, avoiding some of the self-inflicted mistakes and distractions that cost her matches in previous years. She has been locked in early in this tournament, dropping just six games through two matches. The No. 5 seed should keep rolling against the 34th-ranked Bartunkova, who is enjoying a strong first year on the WTA Tour but has dropped her last four matches against top-25 competition.
Honorable Mention
Amanda Anisimova (-588) vs. Anastasia Potapova
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Flavio Cobolli (-116) vs. Alexander Blockx
Cobolli has a massive edge in big-match experience, having reached the final of the French Open and quarterfinals at Wimbledon. The sixth-ranked Italian won a hard-court title this year in Acapulco and recently reached the Cincinnati Open semifinals on this surface, showcasing his all-court capabilities. Blockx is in a Grand Slam third round for the first time, and the 21-year-old Belgian has been at his best on clay in his young career. He's just 9-12 in his career on hard courts and came into this tournament with only one hard-court win all year on the ATP Tour.
Jakub Mensik (+108) vs. Learner Tien
Mensik is a nice value as the slight underdog in this battle between rising stars born in 2005. The 6-foot-5 Czech can keep the pressure on Tien by getting a lot more free points on serve, and Mensik covers the court extremely well for his size. The cerebral American has a three-spot edge in the rankings and will have the crowd in his corner, but Mensik has demonstrated a higher ceiling, winning a hard-court Masters 1000 event at the Miami Open last year and scoring a rare win over Jannik Sinner (knee) on this surface this year, in addition to reaching the French Open semifinals. Tien hasn't quite reached similar heights, and his 17-9 hard-court record is a notch below Mensik's 23-9 mark.
Honorable Mention
Michael Zheng (-146) vs. Arthur Gea
