Fourth-round play begins Sunday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. After a rough day for Americans on Saturday, a couple more big names from the US contingent are on upset alert Sunday, but some of their compatriots look like nice value bets as part of a slate with no shortage of players from the home country in action.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+210) vs. Ben Shelton
Tsitsipas already has one win over a top-10 seed at this tournament, as the former world No. 3 took out Cincinnati Open champion Arthur Fils in the first round. He's also coming off a four-set win over 18th-seeded Jiri Lehecka. It's easy to forget that Tsitsipas is still only 28 years old given his decline in recent years, but a lot of his problems have been between the ears, and a new coach and girlfriend seem to have alleviated those issues, at least during the honeymoon phase for both. Shelton has looked far from dominant in this tournament, as the eighth-seeded American has dropped a set in each of his three matches. Their only previous meeting was a straight-set Tsitsipas win on hard court in 2023.
Honorable Mention
Sorana Cirstea (+221) vs. Jessica Pegula
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Alex Michelsen (-308) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Michelsen has quietly had an excellent summer hard-court swing, posting a 13-3 record in all levels of competition, with two of those three losses coming against top-10 compatriot Taylor Fritz. The 46th-ranked American avenged his other loss over that stretch with his third-round win over up-and-coming Spaniard Daniel Merida, one match after winning an all-American showdown against the red-hot Brandon Nakashima. Michelsen plays his best tennis on hard courts, with a win rate well over .500 on the surface both this year and in his career. Etcheverry is less accomplished on this surface, with a career 47-55 hard-court record. That mark includes Etcheverry's three wins here, all of which came against opponents ranked behind Michelsen.
Carlos Alcaraz (-528) vs. Tommy Paul
There were questions swirling around Alcaraz's health heading into this tournament, but the reigning US Open champion has looked close enough to full health in his return from a multi-month layoff due to a wrist injury. He seems to have shaken off most of the rust, dropping only 13 games across his last six sets. Paul will be the toughest opponent Alcaraz has faced since the Monte Carlo Masters in April, and the 20th-seeded American has played Alcaraz tough before, though Alcaraz has won their last five matchups after dropping two of the first three. Their latest encounter was a straight-set Alcaraz win at this year's Australian Open, which is part of the Spaniard's 17-match Grand Slam winning streak.
Honorable Mention
Aryna Sabalenka (-498) vs. Taylor Townsend
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Frances Tiafoe (+113) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev seems to have found his mojo after posting a 1-4 record in his last five matches prior to the US Open, but the mercurial Russian is liable to go back off the rails quickly. He has relished the villain role over the years, so the heavily pro-Tiafoe crowd won't bother the No. 7 seed, though the 11th-seeded American will appreciate the support considering Tiafoe plays his best tennis when he's feeding off the crowd's energy. Tiafoe is seeking a third US Open semifinal in five years, while Medvedev hasn't been to a Grand Slam quarterfinal since losing at that stage in the 2024 US Open. Medvedev leads their overall head-to-head 6-1, but they have split two meetings since the start of 2024, which is more representative of Medvedev's current level.
Emma Navarro (-117) vs. Anna Kalinskaya
Navarro reached the semifinals here in 2024, and the 26th-seeded American is putting together another impressive run at her home major. She's coming off a straight-set win over Wimbledon finalist Karolina Muchova and has a golden opportunity to keep advancing against the 21st-seeded Kalinskaya, who is into the fourth round of the US Open for the first time at age 27. Kalinskaya is coming off a top-10 win of her own over Elina Svitolina, but the Russian had dropped her previous five matches against top-30 competition. Navarro is 0-2 against Kalinskaya in her career, but the American is in far better form now than she was during either of those previous encounters.
Honorable Mention
Linda Noskova (+120) vs. Marta Kostyuk
