Fourth-round play continues Monday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. A clash between a pair of young Americans is among this Labor Day slate's most enticing matchups, while some players can lean on their edge in big-match experience as we hit the second week of the year's final Grand Slam.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Qinwen Zheng (21%/+376) vs. Iga Swiatek
Zheng is coming off an incredible win over Madison Keys, in which Zheng trailed 5-0 in the third set and saved match point while winning the last seven games to secure a 1-6, 7-6 (3), 7-5 win. Zheng has dropped to 121st in the rankings due to injuries, but she was ranked as high as No. 4 last June and finally looks fully healthy again. Swiatek won the first six times these two played, but Zheng famously defeated the queen of clay on Iga's favorite surface en route to winning Olympic gold in 2024, taking some of the bite out of Swiatek's 7-1 overall head-to-head edge. Zheng can swing freely after her win in the previous round, while Swiatek could be in trouble if she doesn't raise her level from her pedestrian play in her 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3) third-round win over Marie Bouzkova.
Iva Jovic (28%/+257) vs. Coco Gauff (72%)
Much like the 22-year-old Gauff was a few years ago, Jovic is the next promising American teenage talent. The 14th-seeded Jovic is seeking her second hard-court Grand Slam quarterfinal this year, and the 18-year-old American is coming off a sensational 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 third-round win over fellow rising star Alexandra Eala. Gauff has been there and done that as a two-time Grand Slam champion, but all the pressure in this match will be on the fourth-seeded Gauff, who lost to opponents ranked outside the top eight at each of the previous three majors this year. Gauff is just 5-6 against opponents ranked in the 9-16 range this year.
Honorable Mention
Karen Khachanov (39%/+156) vs. Learner Tien
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Mirra Andreeva (85%/-567) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Andreeva has been rolling en route to the Round of 16, as the fifth-seeded French Open champion has dropped more than two games in only one of her six sets at this tournament. The 24th-seeded Potapova benefited from a whopping 46 unforced errors in two sets out of Amanda Anisimova to take out the No. 10 seed in the previous round, but Andreeva plays a much steadier game, trading in some power for superior variety, movement and point construction. Andreeva leads their head-to-head 3-1, and Potapova's lone victory came in their first encounter back in 2022, when Andreeva was only 15 years old.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Zverev (89%/-809) vs. Luciano Darderi
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Botic van de Zandschulp (60%/-150) vs. Arthur Gea
Van de Zandschulp is trying to make the US Open quarterfinals for the second time in his career, and he swept sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur in straight sets on his path to the Round of 16 this year, then survived a tight five-setter against Zizou Bergs in his last match, so there's no doubt the 70th-ranked Dutchman is battle-tested. The 87th-ranked Gea is in the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career, and he hasn't faced a player ranked higher than 80th to reach this point. Gea got into this tournament as a lucky loser after losing to Nishesh Basavareddy in qualifying before getting lucky with his path in the main draw. Given van de Zandschulp's edge in big-match experience and demonstrated ability to go toe-to-toe with top players at this tournament, this is clearly his match to lose.
Elena Rybakina (56%/-127) vs. Naomi Osaka
Rybakina has been the better player all year, especially on hard courts, where she has a 30-6 record since the start of the Australian Open, which she won. Osaka hasn't looked particularly impressive in getting to the fourth round, being pushed to three sets in her last two matches, including a 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 win over No. 23 seed Elise Mertens. Rybakina had some questions about her health entering this tournament but has answered those by advancing to the Round of 16 without dropping a set. As indicated by their 11-spot difference in the rankings between Rybakina at No. 2 and Osaka at No. 13, Rybakina has been the far better player over the last year and deserves to be the clear favorite in this matchup, especially since she just beat Osaka at the Canadian Open in their first career encounter.
Honorable Mention
Francisco Cerundolo (42%/+138) vs. Alexander Blockx
