Quarterfinal play commences Tuesday from the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Both defending champions will be in action, with one on upset alert against a more recent Grand Slam winner, while a pair of all-American matchups round out Tuesday's slate.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Linda Noskova (31%/+223) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka hasn't quite been herself for the past few months, dating back to her collapse in level against Diana Shnaider in the French Open quarterfinals. The world No. 1 is just 13-5 starting with that match after posting a 31-3 record prior to that point this year. Sabalenka takes an 18-match US Open winning streak into this match, but she could struggle to generate break chances against Noskova, who has played phenomenal offensive tennis, especially on her own serve, en route to an 18-3 record over her last 21 matches. Noskova has won two titles over that span, including a Grand Slam at Wimbledon. Sabalenka was broken four times in two sets by Taylor Townsend in the Round of 16, and she'll have a hard time breaking back if she's equally as sloppy on serve in this match. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 2-0, but both wins came before the 21-year-old Noskova broke out in recent months.
US Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (78%/-355) vs. Ben Shelton
The winner of this match could well end up winning the whole tournament. Unfortunately for Shelton, this may be too tough a test to pass for the best hope at ending the 23-year American men's Grand Slam drought. Shelton is 0-3 against Alcaraz and 1-18 combined against Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner (knee), Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic, so the big-serving American has come up short against the cream of the crop on the ATP Tour. Alcaraz looks close enough to himself in his return from a multi-month injury layoff that beating the defending US Open champion will be a monumental task for anyone else in the field. Shelton's American compatriot Tommy Paul found that out the hard way in his straight-set fourth-round loss to Alcaraz.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Pegula (79%/-376) vs. Emma Navarro
US Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Frances Tiafoe (57%/-133) vs. Alex Michelsen
Three of the four players left in the bottom half of the men's draw are Americans. Michelsen is the most surprising member of that group, but he has earned his spot here in dominant fashion, advancing to his first Grand Slam quarterfinal without dropping a set. No. 16 seed Brandon Nakashima is the toughest opponent Michelsen has faced so far in this tournament, so the 11th-seeded Tiafoe is a step up in competition. Tiafoe would reach his third US Open semifinal in five years with a win here, and he's coming off an impressive straight-set sweep of 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev. In addition to having a 34-spot edge in the rankings over Michelsen and a substantial advantage in big-match experience, Tiafoe has won both of their previous matchups in straight sets.
