The fourth and final tennis Grand Slam of 2026 begins Sunday, August 30 from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City. Title favorite Carlos Alcaraz will have plenty of rust to shake off as he returns from a multi-month layoff due to a wrist injury, while French Open champion Alexander Zverev is seeded No. 1 at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career in the absence of Jannik Sinner (knee). Fourth-seeded Novak Djokovic's quest for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam singles title looms as a major storyline in this depleted field, while a few American men come in riding strong form in their quest to end a Grand Slam title drought that dates back to Andy Roddick's 2023 US Open victory.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the US Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. In addition to Sinner, Jack Draper (arm), Joao Fonseca (abdomen), Holger Rune (Achilles), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ankle), Ugo Humbert (back) and Sebastian Korda (back) will all miss the US Open.
This is the most wide-open Grand Slam men's draw we have seen in a while given the absence of Sinner and questions about the health and form of Alcaraz, who have combined to win 10 of the last 11 Grand Slam tournaments. The lone exception came at this year's French Open, where Zverev claimed his first Grand Slam title, capitalizing on Alcaraz's absence and Sinner's early exit. Seven players have title odds of +1200 or shorter for the US Open, including a pair of Americans.
After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
US Open ATP Picks
The Favorite for the 2026 US Open
Carlos Alcaraz (+250) - Alcaraz hasn't played a match since mid-April due to a wrist injury, but the defending USOpen champion still maintains a top-three spot in the rankings and has a strong 22-3 record in 2026. If he's fully fit physically and able to play his way into form, Alcaraz has a great chance to add a third US Open and eighth total Grand Slam title to his ledger in the absence of his chief rival, Sinner. Alcaraz will need to knock off the rust quickly, as first-round opponent Roman Safiullin has beaten the Spaniard before, stunning Alcaraz at the 2023 Paris Masters. American Jenson Brooksby could also present a tricky matchup in the second round, and while 30th seed Matteo Arnaldi probably lacks the tools to trouble Alcaraz in Round 3, No. 15 Alexander Bublik or No. 20 Tommy Paul could certainly capitalize in the Round of 16 if facing a depleted version of Alcaraz. Ben Shelton or Cincinnati Open champion Arthur Fils are potential quarterfinal opponents for Alcaraz, followed by Djokovic or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, while the top-seeded Zverev landed in the comparably easier top half of the draw. It would take a Herculean effort for Alcaraz to get through this tough draw after his lengthy layoff, but all-time great athletes separate themselves by finding ways through improbable situations, and the 23-year-old Alcaraz is well on his way to a legendary career.
In the Mix for the 2026 US Open
Alexander Zverev (+300) - Zverev got just about the ideal draw, with most of the other top contenders clustered in the bottom half. The top-seeded German has a straightforward path into the Round of 16, where he could face Lorenzo Musetti. One of Alex de Minaur, Rafael Jodar or Casper Ruud could challenge Zverev in the quarterfinals, while Felix Auger-Aliassime, Flavio Cobolli, Taylor Fritz, Learner Tien or Jakub Mensik are potential semifinal foes for Zverev, who would likely be the underdog in the final if he plays Alcaraz or Djokovic. Zverev was arguably the best player ever without a Grand Slam title prior to breaking through at the French Open this year, so he has had a massive weight lifted off his shoulders. He also reached the semifinals of the Australian Open and the final at Wimbledon, but he's just 17-7 on hard courts this year compared to 29-6 on other surfaces.
Novak Djokovic (+700) - Djokovic comes in highly motivated to win a 25th Grand Slam title, but Father Time is undefeated, and Djokovic is 39 years old. He's 12-3 at Grand Slams this year and just 2-3 at other tournaments, so the Serbian legend saves his best tennis for the biggest stages at this point, but Djokovic hasn't won a match since his five-set thriller against Auger-Aliassime in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Djokovic could face a second-round test against Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka in the three-time Grand Slam champion's final major, and surging American Brandon Nakashima looms as a potential fourth-round foe. Medvedev or Frances Tiafoe line up to face the fourth-seeded Djokovic in the quarterfinals, with Alcaraz in the semifinals and Zverev in the final as possibilities. Similarly to Alcaraz, Djokovic's lack of recent matches gives him a large range of realistic outcomes, but winning the title is certainly within that range.
Ben Shelton (+900) - Shelton probably has the highest ceiling of any American on the ATP Tour thanks to his mix of power and athleticism, giving him the best chance of ending the host country's lengthy Grand Slam drought on the men's side. The No. 8 seed defended his Canadian Open Masters 1000 title earlier this month, and Shelton reached the semifinals here in 2023 before losing in the third round the last two years, though last year's early exit was injury-related. Shelton has a brutal draw, as he could face Hubert Hurkacz in the second round, Cameron Norrie in the third round and Arthur Fils in the Round of 16 just to get to a quarterfinal against Alcaraz.
Arthur Fils (+1200), Taylor Fritz (+1200) and Rafael Jodar (+1200) make up the next tier of contenders. Fils won the recently completed Cincinnati Open Masters 1000, and the last three players to win that event went on to win the subsequent US Open. The 10th-seeded Frenchman is 32-10 in 2026 but could have to go through Shelton, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev consecutively starting with the Round of 16. Fritz reached the final here in 2024 and landed in a great situation as the No. 9 seed. A semifinal berth for the big-serving American is certainly possible from Auger-Aliassime's section, and Fritz is 10-6 in his career against Zverev, whom he could face with another trip to the final on the line. Jodar is in Zverev's quarter. The 19-year-old Spaniard has rocketed up the rankings to earn the No. 12 seed here and boasts a 36-14 record in 2026, but he may not quite be ready to contend for the title at his first US Open, as Jodar's just 1-4 against top-eight opponents this year.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+2800), Jakub Mensik (+3000), Flavio Cobolli (+3500), Daniil Medvedev (+3500) and Frances Tiafoe (+4000) are also in the mix. Auger-Aliassime is seeded No. 3 in Zverev's half of the draw, and both of the Canadian's career Grand Slam semifinals have come at this tournament, including one last year. Mensik has immense potential, as the 20-year-old Czech demonstrated by winning the Miami Open last year and reaching the French Open semifinals this year, but the No. 17 seed will have his work cut out for him, potentially facing Tien, Auger-Alliasime, Fritz/Cobolli, Zverev and Alcaraz/Djokovic consecutively from the third round onward.
Cobolli's seeded No. 5, but the French Open finalist and Wimbledon quarterfinalist is probably a fade at the US Open given his pedestrian 13-9 hard-court record this year. Medvedev has played three US Open finals, including a win in 2021, but the scuffling Russian also looks like a fade given his 6-8 record in his last 14 Grand Slam matches. Tiafoe's a two-time semifinalist and plays his best tennis when feeding off the American crowd's energy. Big Foe comes in hot off a runner-up finish in Cincinnati, and the 11th-seeded American has a great opportunity to emerge from the disgruntled Medvedev's section as the quarterfinal opponent for Djokovic.
Sleepers for the 2026 US Open
Brandon Nakashima (+5000) - Nakashima has climbed to a career-high 17th in the rankings and got the 16th seed here thanks to a 9-2 stretch in the recent hard-court Masters 1000s, as he reached the final in Montreal and semifinals in Cincinnati. The 25-year-old American is playing the best tennis of his career and has a chance to make a deep run if age is indeed catching up to his potential fourth-round opponent Djokovic.
Learner Tien (+6000) - Tien is one of six Americans seeded in the top 20, along with Shelton, Fritz, Tiafoe, Nakashima and Paul. The 14th-seeded Tien is still just 20 years old. He has an impressive .634 career win rate on hard court, which has been Tien's best surface. The lefty has a realistic shot at making the semifinals out of Auger-Aliassime's section, though Tien may have to beat Mensik, FAA and Fritz/Cobolli to do so.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (+8000) - Tirante went 7-2 across the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open, notching wins over Fritz, Djokovic and Mensik. He comes in sporting a career-best ranking of No. 42, and Tirante won't be short on confidence given his recent results. Tirante will be buoyed by the boisterous Argentinian fanbase, which always shows up in full force at the US Open. He's arguably the most dangerous unseeded player in the draw and could wreak some havoc in the section of the draw with Bublik and Paul. Tirante's Argentinian compatriot Francisco Cerundolo (+25000) has deep-sleeper potential as the No. 24 seed in the top half of the draw, as Cerundolo's recent slump has created a buy-low opportunity.
US Open Prediction
There is no doubt Alcaraz is capable of navigating his tricky early draw if he's back to full health, even after his multi-month layoff, and the seven-time Grand Slam champion's A-game is clearly better than what anybody else in this tournament can currently produce in Sinner's absence. The lingering questions about Alcaraz's health explain why he is the clear underdog against the field, but +250 odds in this depleted field are hard to turn down. Carlos Alcaraz is my US Open title pick over Fritz in the final. If Alcaraz proves incapable of generating full power on his serve and groundstrokes due to his wrist injury, the winner of the potential Shelton-Fils Round of 16 match could go on to take the whole tournament.
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