The US Open men's final will be played Sunday on the hard-court Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Ben Shelton takes aim at ending the American men's title drought against No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev in a battle of big servers.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Sunday's US Open men's championship match.
US Open Tennis Picks: Zverev vs. Shelton
Alexander Zverev (-152) vs. Ben Shelton (+124)
Shelton got his first career win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, and the 23-year-old lefty will need to notch his first win over Zverev in the final to end America's 23-year men's singles Grand Slam title drought. Zverev leads their head-to-head 5-0, but they haven't faced each other this year. This breakout run to Shelton's first career Grand Slam final has been well deserved, as Shelton has noticeably improved his defense and rally tolerance recently to complement his elite serve and offensive game. Those improvements have been particularly evident in his return games, where Shelton has started utilizing a deeper return position to get more balls in play. The strategic shift has helped Shelton break serve 14 times across his last three matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe while getting broken only five times over that span. Breaking Zverev will be an even greater challenge, though, as the top-seeded German has dropped serve just once in his last three matches while facing only five break points during that stretch. Breaks will be at a premium in this matchup between two elite servers who blend power, variety and accuracy.
Zverev has a sparkling 24-2 Grand Slam record this year, though only one of those wins has come against a top-10 opponent. The French Open champion is just 1-4 in Grand Slam finals in his career, and he'll have to overcome an energized American crowd in this match in addition to a surging opponent. The ninth-ranked Shelton has actually had a superior hard-court season, winning a Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open en route to a 25-6 record (.806) on hard courts this year, while Zverev's 23-7 hard-court record (.767) is his worst win rate on any surface in 2026. When American Taylor Fritz reached the final here two years ago against Jannik Sinner, the gap in quality was too large for the environment to make up the difference. This time, home-court advantage might just put Shelton over the top in the biggest match of his career and a massive match for American tennis.
US Open Men's Final Prediction: Shelton def. Zverev 4-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6
