Both US Open women's semifinals will be played Thursday on the hard courts of New York City's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The top four seeds have all reached the semifinals in women's singles at a Grand Slam for the first time since Wimbledon in 2009. Two of the four remaining players are American, and three of the four have won multiple Grand Slams, while the oldest of the group is the only one without a major title.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
US Open Tennis Picks: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka (64%/-178) vs. Jessica Pegula (37%/+170)
Pegula has won 16 consecutive US Open matches against opponents other than Sabalenka, but the third-ranked American has had her last two runs at this tournament ended by the top-ranked Belarusian, falling in straight sets in the 2024 final and in a 2025 semifinal three-setter. Sabalenka is a perfect 19-0 at the US Open over that same span, as she's closing in on a three-peat in New York. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 9-4 overall, including 6-3 on hard court.
This match will be determined by Sabalenka's level, as she's the bigger hitter with the far higher ceiling. She has had some recent mental hiccups after a 26-1 start to the season that included three hard-court titles, but surviving a match tiebreak against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals had to provide a nice confidence boost for the four-time hard-court Grand Slam champion.
Pegula has an extensive history of coming up short against top players on the biggest stages. She's just 5-10 in her career in Grand Slam quarterfinals or later, including Pegula's three-set quarterfinal win here over 26th-seeded compatriot Emma Navarro. Pegula hasn't faced a top-15 seed in this tournament, so Sabalenka presents a massive step up in level of competition. Pegula's best chance is to keep things close, ride the crowd's energy and hope Sabalenka struggles to handle the moment, which has happened to the Belarusian late in majors on a few occasions.
US Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
US Open Tennis Picks: Gauff vs. Rybakina
Coco Gauff (52%/-108) vs. Elena Rybakina (50%/+100)
Both of these players are two-time Grand Slam champions ranked in the top four, so it's surprising that they have played only twice before. Gauff won a three-setter back at the 2022 Canadian Open, and Rybakina avenged that defeat at the same hard-court venue last month. The second-seeded Rybakina will take over the No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career after this tournament, regardless of the results moving forward. She's a perfect 12-0 in hard-court Grand Slam matches this year, having won the Australian Open. Gauff is a perfect 11-0 since that loss to Rybakina in Toronto. The fourth-seeded American won the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati leading up to this tournament, just as she did prior to winning the 2023 US Open.
Gauff pulled a quarterfinal Houdini act after French Open champion Mirra Andreeva opened the door with some nerves late in the second set tiebreak, including a 79-mile per hour first serve on match point. The 22-year-old American can swing freely in this match after saving two match points against Andreeva, but it may not matter if Rybakina is on her game. Rybakina's elite offense can control play against Gauff's tremendous defense on hard court, and the new world No. 1 is nearly unbreakable when her big serve is rolling, having dropped serve only four times in this tournament. Gauff has been broken multiple times in each of her last four matches, including four times by Andreeva. Getting those breaks back will be a lot tougher in this match than it was in previous rounds.
US Open Women's Semifinal Prediction: Rybakina def. Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-4
