This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
The Toronto Blue Jays have promoted prospect Kyle Drabek to the major league roster, and he'll make his major league debut on Wednesday, September 15. Drabek has been on the radar of prospect watchers for some time, but let's take a look at his background, his current status, and what we can expect from him.
BACKGROUND
Kyle Drabek is the son of former major league pitcher Doug Drabek, winner of the 1990 National League Cy Young Award. Kyle was well-known to scouts as an amateur growing up in The Woodlands, Texas, and was considered a prospect as both a shortstop and pitcher, though he settled on mound work full time before the 2006 draft. He could have gone in the top ten picks, if not for serious concerns about his personality, work ethic, and over-strong sense of entitlement. He was still drafted 18th overall, a testament to how much scouts loved his natural talent. Drabek pitched poorly in rookie ball, then blew out his elbow in 2007, requiring Tommy John surgery and costing him most of two seasons. He returned healthy in 2009 and pitched well in High-A and Double-A. He also eased concerns about his makeup: he worked at his rehab diligently, and was more mature on the mound and off. Drabek came to Toronto as a key component in the December 2009 Roy Halladay trade with the Phillies. He's spent all of 2010 with Double-A New Hampshire, performing well enough that the Jays are comfortable giving him
The Toronto Blue Jays have promoted prospect Kyle Drabek to the major league roster, and he'll make his major league debut on Wednesday, September 15. Drabek has been on the radar of prospect watchers for some time, but let's take a look at his background, his current status, and what we can expect from him.
BACKGROUND
Kyle Drabek is the son of former major league pitcher Doug Drabek, winner of the 1990 National League Cy Young Award. Kyle was well-known to scouts as an amateur growing up in The Woodlands, Texas, and was considered a prospect as both a shortstop and pitcher, though he settled on mound work full time before the 2006 draft. He could have gone in the top ten picks, if not for serious concerns about his personality, work ethic, and over-strong sense of entitlement. He was still drafted 18th overall, a testament to how much scouts loved his natural talent. Drabek pitched poorly in rookie ball, then blew out his elbow in 2007, requiring Tommy John surgery and costing him most of two seasons. He returned healthy in 2009 and pitched well in High-A and Double-A. He also eased concerns about his makeup: he worked at his rehab diligently, and was more mature on the mound and off. Drabek came to Toronto as a key component in the December 2009 Roy Halladay trade with the Phillies. He's spent all of 2010 with Double-A New Hampshire, performing well enough that the Jays are comfortable giving him a major league trial this month, increasing the chance that he could open 2011 in the big league rotation.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Drabek is a 6-foot-1, 190 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born December 8, 1987. A solid overall athlete, he threw in the mid-90s in high school, but lost some velocity after Tommy John, working at 88-93 MPH in 2009. However, his velocity picked back up in 2010: he was throwing 93-96 MPH down the season stretch at New Hampshire, hitting 97 MPH at times, back to his high school velocity. The fastball has decent movement, which plays up due to the contrast with his nasty curveball. The curve is a definite out-pitch and a plus major league offering. Drabek's changeup is not as good as the fastball and curve, but it improved this year and fills out his arsenal nicely. Although he'll give up some occasional home runs when he hangs the curve, he is primarily a ground ball pitcher due to sinking action on the fastball and the power on his breaking ball. Drabek's control can still be inconsistent, and refining his command from good to excellent will be the next step in his development. He's greatly improved his work ethic and maturity over the last three years, and while he'll likely always be an "intense" player, concerns about his personality have abated. Since recovering from Tommy John, he's been very durable.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Drabek debuted in Double-A in 2009, posting a 3.64 ERA with a 76:31 K:BB in 96 innings for Double-A Reading in the Phillies system, with 92 hits allowed. The Blue Jays assigned him to Double-A New Hampshire in 2010, also in the Eastern League, and left him there all season, perhaps hesitant to promote him to the pinball machine at Triple-A Las Vegas. Drabek went 14-9, 2.94 with a 132:68 K:BB in 162 innings for New Hampshire, allowing 126 hits. Although he cut more than half a run off his ERA, his K/9IP ratio improved only slightly (from 7.1 K/9IP to 7.3 K/9IP) and his walk rate actually got worse (2.9 BB/9IP to 3.8 BB/9IP). The difference this year was a much lower hit rate, which scouts attribute (at least partially) to his improved fastball velocity. It's also possible that better luck and superior defensive support from teammates had something to do with it. Indeed, his FIP mark (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 4.00 this year compared to 4.02 in 2009. Despite the superficial improvements, the two seasons were actually almost identical.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
Because of his background, Drabek will get a lot of attention in the coming weeks. He's a legitimately strong prospect, and scouts were very impressed with the progress he made this year. But as the sabermetric analysis shows, he still has some adjustments to make with his control, and immediate success in the majors is not at all guaranteed. If all goes well, Drabek projects as a No. 2 starter in the majors, but he may be in for some bumps and bruises in the short run as he works on his command.
