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Pitching Value Meter: Off and Running

David Regan

David Regan

David Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, and was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

Insanity. That pretty much describes week one. Panic in Beantown where the Red Sox opened 0-6 after adding Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but rebounded to win on Friday. The Orioles sit at 5-1 and the Royals are out of the gate at 4-2. The Rays pitching staff has been OK, but because B.J. Upton is the only one hitting, the team scored just eight runs in its first six games. Fortunately the Rays and Red Sox play this week, so one team is guaranteed of adding some wins to its ledger.

For the week April 11-17

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Clayton Kershaw - @SF, STL
2. Roy Halladay - @WAS
3. Chris Carpenter - @ARI, @LAD
4. Tim Lincecum - LAD
5. Josh Johnson - @ATL
6. Cliff Lee - @WAS
7. Ryan Dempster - @HOU, @COL
8. Yovani Gallardo - @WAS
9. Chad Billingsley - @SF, STL
10. Matt Cain - @ARI
11. Shaun Marcum - @PIT
12. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHC
13. Mat Latos - CIN, @HOU
14. Brett Myers - CHC, SD
15. Tim Hudson - FLA
16. Tommy Hanson - FLA, NYM
17. Tim Stauffer - CIN, @HOU
18. Madison Bumgarner - LAD, @ARI
19. Cole Hamels - FLA
20. Edinson Volquez - @SD, PIT
21. Brandon Beachy - FLA
22. Ricky Nolasco - @ATL
23. Roy Oswalt - FLA
24. Kyle McClellan - @ARI, @LAD
25. Carlos Zambrano - @HOU
26. Matt Garza - @COL
27. Jordan Zimmerman - PHI
28. Jaime Garcia - @LAD
29. Kevin Correia - MIL, @CIN
30. Travis Wood - @SD
31. Barry Enright - STL, SF
32. Jonathan Sanchez - LAD
33. Clayton Richard - CIN
34. Jhoulys Chacin - CHC
35. Bronson Arroyo - PIT
36. Mike Leake - PIT
37. Dan Hudson - SF
38. Hiroki Kuroda - STL

Borderline Depending on League Format

39. Wandy Rodriguez - CHC
40. Joe Blanton - @WAS, FLA
41. J.A. Happ - SD
42. Ian Kennedy - STL
43. Jorge De La Rosa - @NYM
44. Ted Lilly - @SF
45. Jonathon Niese - COL, @ATL
46. Esmil Rogers - @NYM
47. Derek Lowe - NYM
48. Jair Jurrjens - NYM
49. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
50. R.A. Dickey - COL
51. Bud Norris - SD
52. Chris Narveson - @WAS
53. Chris Young - @ATL
54. Chris Capuano - COL
55. Sam LeCure - @SD
56. Nelson Figueroa - CHC, SD
57. Randy Wolf - @PIT
58. Jason Hammel - CHC
59. Jake Westbrook - @ARI
60. Jon Garland - STL
61. Chris Volstad - @ATL, @PHI
62. John Lannan - PHI
63. Tom Gorzelanny - MIL

Extreme Caution Advised

64. Livan Hernandez - PHI, MIL
65. James McDonald - @CIN
66. Marco Estrada - @PIT, @WAS
67. Javier Vazquez - @PHI
68. Kyle Lohse - @LAD
69. James Russell - @HOU
70. Paul Maholm - MIL
71. Joe Saunders - SF
72. Aaron Harang - @HOU
73. Dustin Moseley - @HOU
74. Mike Pelfrey - COL, @ATL
75. Jason Marquis - MIL
76. Casey Coleman - @COL
77. Ross Ohlendorf - MIL
78. Colt Morton - @CIN
79. Armando Galarraga - STL
80. Greg Reynolds - @NYM
81. Barry Zito - @ARI

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
None

Two-start starters:
Tommy Hanson, Chris Volstad, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese, Joe Blanton, Livan Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Edinson Volquez, Nelson Figueroa, Brett Myers, Marco Estrada, Kevin Correia, Kyle McClellen, Chris Carpenter, Barry Enright, Jason Hammel, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Tim Stauffer, Mat Latos, Madison Bumgarner.

Notes: Esmil Rodgers
is an intriguing play against the Mets this week after he went 7.1-4-1-1-1-7 in his 2011 debut against Pittsburgh. A .394 BABIP killed Rogers' 2010 ERA, but his rates that year were promising 8.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9. ... I'm projecting a Sunday, April 17, return for Ubaldo Jimenez (finger), though that's no guarantee at this point. ... Mat Latos' shoulder is still concerning, but he should be back April 12 at home versus the Reds. ... Jon Garland (oblique) is set to return this week, so the Dodgers' projected rotation is now set. ... Just wondering how long Armando Galarraga is going to last in Arizona. I'm not sure Jarrod Parker needs more than a couple months in Triple-A before he's ready. ... There's a pretty good chance that Kyle McClellan is the team's third-best starter. Of course, I could be overeating on one start versus the Pirates, but I like what I saw. ... Jair Jurrjens (oblique) returns this week with Mike Minor a lock to return to Triple-A after his poor first outing. ... James McDonald was limited by an oblique injury this spring, so chalk up his poor command in his start against St. Louis to rust. I still see 180 strikeouts from him this year. ... Pretty bad luck for the Cubs, losing both Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells to shoulder injuries. James Russell and Casey Coleman are the favorites to fill in, with neither worth getting excited over. Russell is a little intriguing off last year's 42:11 K:BB in 49 innings, but he matched his walks total with his HR allowed -- 11. ... It's not often that a pitcher allows 12 hits while striking out the same in one game, but that was Matt Garza in his NL debut. ... Jonathon Niese has a 10:2 K:BB in 11 innings, so probably too early to panic over his 6.55 ERA.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Start 'Em

1. Felix Hernandez - TOR, @KC
2. Justin Verlander - TEX, @OAK
3. David Price - @BOS, MIN
4. Trevor Cahill - @CHW, DET
5. CC Sabathia - TEX
6. Dan Haren - CLE, @CHW
7. Jered Weaver - @CHW
8. Brett Anderson - @CHW
9. Francisco Liriano - KC
10. Jon Lester - TB
11. Edwin Jackson - OAK
12. Michael Pineda - TOR, @KC
13. John Danks - OAK
14. Ricky Romero - @SEA
15. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS, MIN
16. A.J. Burnett - BAL, TEX
17. Brian Duensing - KC, @TB
18. Max Scherzer - TEX
19. C.J. Wilson - @DET
20. Ervin Santana - CLE
21. Colby Lewis - @DET
22. Carl Pavano - @TB
23. Gio Gonzalez - DET
24. Ivan Nova - BAL
25. Fausto Carmona - @LAA
26. Jeremy Guthrie - @CLE
27. Kyle Drabek - @SEA
28. Dallas Braden - @CHW, DET
29. Alexi Ogando - @DET, @NYY
30. Mark Buehrle - OAK, LAA

Borderline Depending on League Format

31. Scott Baker - @TB
32. Josh Beckett - TOR
33. Brandon McCarthy - DET
34. Brandon Morrow - @BOS
35. John Lackey - TB
36. Brett Cecil - @BOS
37. Clay Buchholz - TOR
38. Erik Bedard - @KC
39. Gavin Floyd - LAA
40. Jake Arrieta - @CLE
41. Wade Davis - MIN
42. Matt Harrison - @NYY
43. James Shields - @BOS
44. Jeff Niemann - MIN
45. Justin Masterson - BAL
46. Jeff Francis - @MIN, SEA
47. Nick Blackburn - @TB
48. Doug Fister - @KC
49. Bruce Chen - SEA
50. Zach Britton - @NYY
51. Derek Holland - @NYY

Extreme Caution Advised

52. Chris Tillman - @NYY
53. Jason Vargas - TOR
54. Philip Hughes - BAL
55. Brad Penny - TEX, @OAK
56. Bradley Bergesen - @NYY, @CLE
57. Carlos Carrasco - @LAA
58. Daisuke Matsuzaka - TB, TOR
59. Freddy Garcia - TEX
60. Jesse Litsch - @BOS
61. Josh Tomlin - BAL
62. Kyle Davies - @MIN
63. Mitch Talbot - @LAA, BAL
64. Rick Porcello - @OAK
65. Vincent Mazzaro - SEA
66. Matt Palmer - CLE
67. Phil Coke - @OAK
68. Scott Kazmir - @CHW
69. Luke Hochevar SEA

Projected No. 5 starters skipped:
Phil Humber

Two-start starters:
Bradley Bergesen, Daisuke Matsuzaka, A.J. Burnett, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Jesse Litsch, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Mitch Talbot, Justin Verlander, Brad Penny, Jeff Francis, Brian Duensing, Dan Haren, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Michael Pineda, Felix Hernandez, Alexi Ogando

Notes: Brian Matusz
(intercostal) won't be back until sometime in May, but the future for the Baltimore pitching staff may be here. I have a feeling the Orioles won't be drafting in the top-five again come 2012. ... The Boston pitching staff has a 7.13 ERA through six games, but it's not Jon Lester's fault (3.65 ERA through two starts). Lester even "leads" the team in saves with zero on the team's ESPN stats page. ... Ivan Nova opened with six solid innings in a win in his first start. I think he's safe once Manny Banuelos is ready for the big leagues. ... I'm projecting an April 17 return for Brandon Morrow (elbow), though that's conditional upon Morrow recovering well from his rehab outings. Morrow could be sitting on the waiver wire in your 10- or 12-team mixed leagues if you need pitching. ... Vincent Mazzaro appears set to join the Royals rotation April 16. He has some upside, but so far we've seen far too many walks and home runs from Mazzaro in his career. ... I like Brian Duensing this week. He did allow four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in his first start, but only one of those runs came after the first inning, and he struck out seven. Starts against the Royals and Rays for him this week. ... Matt Palmer is likely filling in for Joel Pineiro in 167-plus big league innings, Palmer has uninspiring ratios of 4.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9. Pineiro (shoulder) should be back in about three weeks. ... Alexi Ogando is dealing with a blister, but he should be OK by Monday for his start in Detroit. Nolan Ryan said he doesn't see Ogando as a long-term rotation option, but after six shutout innings in his debut, I do. What does Nolan Ryan know anyway? ... Six runs, two innings and no strikeouts for Phil Hughes on Friday against the formerly 0-6 Red Sox. Yeah I'm worried, particularly since Hughes' velocity appeared down in the 89-91 range for most of the (brief) day.

MIXED LEAGUE TOP 100

1. Felix Hernandez - TOR, @KC
2. Clayton Kershaw - @SF, STL
3. Justin Verlander - TEX, @OAK
4. Roy Halladay - @WAS
5. David Price - @BOS, MIN
6. Chris Carpenter - @ARI, @LAD
7. Tim Lincecum - LAD
8. Trevor Cahill - @CHW, DET
9. Josh Johnson - @ATL
10. CC Sabathia - TEX
11. Cliff Lee - @WAS
12. Ryan Dempster - @HOU, @COL
13. Dan Haren - CLE, @CHW
14. Yovani Gallardo - @WAS
15. Chad Billingsley - @SF, STL
16. Jered Weaver - @CHW
17. Matt Cain - @ARI
18. Brett Anderson - @CHW
19. Shaun Marcum - @PIT
20. Ubaldo Jimenez - CHC
21. Francisco Liriano - KC
22. Jon Lester - TB
23. Mat Latos - CIN, @HOU
24. Brett Myers - CHC, SD
25. Tim Hudson - FLA
26. Edwin Jackson - OAK
27. Tommy Hanson - FLA, NYM
28. Tim Stauffer - CIN, @HOU
29. Madison Bumgarner - LAD, @ARI
30. Cole Hamels - FLA
31. Edinson Volquez - @SD, PIT
32. Brandon Beachy - FLA
33. Michael Pineda - TOR, @KC
34. Ricky Nolasco - @ATL
35. John Danks - OAK
36. Ricky Romero - @SEA
37. Jeremy Hellickson - @BOS, MIN
38. Roy Oswalt - FLA
39. A.J. Burnett - BAL, TEX
40. Brian Duensing - KC, @TB
41. Kyle McClellan - @ARI, @LAD
42. Max Scherzer - TEX
43. C.J. Wilson - @DET
44. Ervin Santana - CLE
45. Carlos Zambrano - @HOU
46. Matt Garza - @COL
47. Colby Lewis - @DET
48. Jordan Zimmerman - PHI
49. Jaime Garcia - @LAD
50. Carl Pavano - @TB
51. Gio Gonzalez - DET
52. Kevin Correia - MIL, @CIN
53. Travis Wood - @SD
54. Ivan Nova - BAL
55. Barry Enright - STL, SF
56. Jonathan Sanchez - LAD
57. Clayton Richard - CIN
58. Jhoulys Chacin - CHC
59. Fausto Carmona - @LAA
60. Bronson Arroyo - PIT
61. Mike Leake - PIT
62. Dan Hudson - SF
63. Jeremy Guthrie - @CLE
64. Hiroki Kuroda - STL
65. Kyle Drabek - @SEA
66. Dallas Braden - @CHW, DET
67. Alexi Ogando - @DET, @NYY
68. Wandy Rodriguez - CHC
69. Joe Blanton - @WAS, FLA
70. J.A. Happ - SD
71. Ian Kennedy - STL
72. Mark Buehrle - OAK, LAA
73. Jorge De La Rosa - @NYM
74. Ted Lilly - @SF
75. Jonathon Niese - COL, @ATL
76. Esmil Rogers - @NYM
77. Derek Lowe - NYM
78. Jair Jurrjens - NYM
79. Anibal Sanchez - @PHI
80. R.A. Dickey - COL
81. Bud Norris - SD
82. Scott Baker - @TB
83. Josh Beckett - TOR
84. Chris Narveson - @WAS
85. Chris Young - @ATL
86. Chris Capuano - COL
87. Sam LeCure - @SD
88. Brandon McCarthy - DET
89. Nelson Figueroa - CHC, SD
90. Randy Wolf - @PIT
91. Brandon Morrow - @BOS
92. John Lackey - TB
93. Brett Cecil - @BOS
94. Clay Buchholz - TOR
95. Erik Bedard - @KC
96. Gavin Floyd - LAA
97. Jake Arrieta - @CLE
98. Wade Davis - MIN
99. Matt Harrison - @NYY
100. Jason Hammel - CHC

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.