Stathead Sagas: Batting Average Fatalism

Jeff Sullivan wrote a piece at FanGraphs this week about the Athletics' acquisition of Stephen Drew. Sullivan referred to Drew as the Athletics' “random number generator” down the stretch.

Drew entered his Oakland career batting just .193 on the 2012 season, a return from a vicious ankle injury that cost him much of the second half of 2011 as well. The Athletics' wisdom in regards to this move will likely be judged solely on how Stephen Drew hits over the course of his next 100 or 150 at-bats. And here is where Sullivan's description comes in: these 150 at-bats might as well be predicted by a random number generated.

So here's the question: at what point is a pickup to boost your batting average down the stretch any better of a bet than just firing up the random number generator and praying?

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