On Target: More Than Just The Looks

It was another big week for passing here in the always-crucial and highly pivotal Week 13, as eight of the top ten non-QB scorers in standard play (14 of the top 20) were wide receivers and tight ends. Despite reports of inclement weather in many areas, which was supposed to inhibit passing, the skies stayed relatively clear and plenty of quarterbacks were chucking the rock around as if running backs didn't even exist. In fact, eight quarterbacks threw the ball 40 or more times while an additional nine had 35 or more passing attempts. That's the highest we've seen since Week 3, when passing yardage was off the charts. So let's take a look at where all of these, or at least most of these, passes landed.

Top Targets for Week 13

One of the things that is paramount to your success, particularly now during fantasy playoff time, is reliability and it's nice to see so many familiar names this week. Some, like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall, we've seen all year, while others, like Cecil Shorts, T.Y. Hilton and Danario Alexander, we've seen fairly consistently over the last few weeks. These are the guys you should be starting each and every week as you move through the playoffs, rather than taking a shot on some outlier who, potentially, could put up 20 points in one week and zero the next. It's all about reliability at this time of year.

And speaking of some of the outliers...

Chris Givens actually made one appearance here back when Danny Amendola first went down, but even then, it was Brandon Gibson who was seeing the majority of targets. Well now, with Amendola trudging around in a walking boot and Gibson seeing just three targets with no catches over his last two games, it would appear that Givens is the new golden boy in St. Louis. He's certainly not a number one or number two guy, but with his strong deep-play ability, his upside is perfect for a WR3 spot.

Safe to say that Pierre Garcon is ready to be back in your starting lineup each week? Absolutely. Especially with the way RG3 looks for him regularly, as well as him seeing all of the red zone looks this week.

Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme has now seen 20 targets over his last two games and is finally starting to look like a decent option again. He started the year seeing plenty thrown his way, but tapered off as Peyton Manning was finding Eric Decker and Joel Dreesen instead. He could be worth a start in a favorable match-up, but be careful, as it could just be a matter of time before Peyton starts focusing on Decker and Dreesen again.

After weeks of sitting out due to injury, Antonio Brown makes his way back up the Targets Leaderboard thanks to Charlie Batch's strongest game in what seems like a bazillion years. Even so, monitor the situation before making any rash decisions, because Batch isn't going to bathe in the Fountain of Youth before each game. Also, with reports of Ben Roethlisberger's return in Week 14, Batch could be heading back to the sidelines. Though Brown has done hardly any endzone dancing this year, he could return as a strong PPR option when Big Ben is back under center.

Juron Criner? Really? With all the talent at wide receiver, Carson Palmer is picking Criner as his preferred target? I know the weather was supposed to be a disaster and the Raiders were gearing up for a much shorter passing game, but 10 targets for a relative no-name is pretty strong. However, once Oakland's coaches have a look at Criner's catch rate, he just might get phased right back out.

And speaking of a poor catch rate, will this be the last time we see Michael Floyd's name listed here (two catches on 10 targets)? I know the wind at Met Life Stadium can be a bit treacherous and I'm sure Ryan Lindley's overall accuracy has little to be desired, but really…? Just two catches out of a possible 10? You can only blame so much on the QB and the wind.

Now let's look at the overall...

Targets Percentage Leaderboard

Backing up the notion of reliability, it just goes to show that you can't get too disgruntled after one of your prime receivers has a couple of off weeks. It's definitely a pain, but it certainly doesn't make a guy droppable unless you're in an eight-team league where everyone has crazy-good depth. Case in point: Brian Hartline. Last week, I noted the fact that Davone Bess had been closing the target percentage gap between him and Hartline over the last few weeks, only to see Ryan Tannehill go back to what he is most comfortable with: throwing the ball to Hartline. His 10 targets moves him back into the top 10 in overall target percentage, and should that continue, he should be back in the top 20 in PPR scoring in no time.

After a three-week lull, it looks like Tampa Bay's Mike Williams is back on track with Josh Freeman, as he saw a season-high 11 targets this week and came away with double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) for the first time since Week 9. Obviously Vincent Jackson is still the go-to guy for the Bucs, but Williams has been a solid number two for most of the season and was starting to close the gap in target percentage until his slump. He should continue to see similar results to his Week 13 performance, with favorable match-ups against Philadelphia, New Orleans and St. Louis coming up over the next three weeks.

And speaking of number twos closing the gap on number ones with respect to target percentage, what has happened to Eric Decker recently. A nod to all of you who swore that Decker would never surpass Demaryius Thomas, but I never thought it would separate this much by the end of Week 13. Maybe it's the type of coverage the Broncos are facing, maybe it's the play calling or maybe Decker said something derogatory about Peyton's momma, but whatever it is, he's just not getting the looks anymore. As I said above with respect to Jacob Tamme, who finally returns to the TPL this week, perhaps the two will rekindle their on-field relationship, but until they do, Decker is certainly no longer a must-start as he drops down the list here.

Sometimes, certain changes in a team's receiving pecking order can be tough to see when looking at an overall leaderboard and that's what's happened in San Diego. If you've noticed, Malcom Floyd has seen a steady drop down the TPL over the last month, but because we're looking at pass attempts from the entire season in our calculations, the target percentage of Danario Alexander doesn't come close to cracking the top 60. However, over the last four weeks, Alexander's target percentage is at 22.4% while Floyd's sits at 15.5% and that difference is showing up in receptions, yardage, touchdowns and fantasy points. Thus, be sure when making your lineup decisions that you're looking at current situations in addition to overall results.

Another name you won't see here but is certainly on the rise is Green Bay's Greg Jennings, who saw a team-high eight targets this week. With the Packers offensive line starting to wither here in the closing weeks of the season, it looks like reliability is where Aaron Rodgers is looking, and after all these years, that reliability sits with Jennings. Also, with Jordy Nelson out, Jennings should start to see a whole lot more work, which may come at the expense of targets for Randall Cobb and James Jones.

Just Missing the Cut This Week:James Jones (16.5%), Vernon Davis (16.4%), Mario Manningham (16.4%), Scott Chandler (16.0%), Martellus Bennett (15.5%)

TPL Risers to Monitor:Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Brown
TPL Fallers to Monitor:Larry Fitzgerald, Denarius Moore, Justin Blackmon

Week 14 Matchup to Watch: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants – For the second week in a row, I'm looking at Big Blue here for a potential explosion in the passing game. It wasn't exactly a points bonanza last week against the Redskins, but sometimes those division rivalries can change a lot of what we would normally expect. Not in this case though, as the Saints give up an average of 287 yards per game and have coughed up 23 touchdowns through the air this year. They are weak in every aspect of pass coverage, so look for Eli Manning to find Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks in usual fashion, while we could see another explosive week from tight end Martellus Bennett. For the Saints, you can't tell me that Drew Brees isn't looking for some vindication this week. I don't see him tossing five INTs to zero TDs this week at all, especially against a defense that has allowed 245 passing yards per game and 19 passing touchdowns. Expect Marques Colston and Lance Moore to get their usual work in, but look out for Devery Henderson as a sleeper pick for me this week. The G-Men have played the tight end pretty strongly this year, so temper your expectations for Jimmy Graham.

Potential Week 14 Breakouts:Dennis Pitta, Reggie Wayne, Owen Daniels
Potential Week 14 Busts:Percy Harvin, Brandon LaFell, Brandon Pettigrew

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