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Pitching Value Meter: Bumgarner Continues to Baffle Batters

Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer

Sporer covers pitching for RotoWire. He also writes for Baseball Prospectus and publishes an annual guide on starting pitcher. In his spare time, he roots for the Tigers.

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that isn't correct, assume that it was a change that has occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, and I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week June 9-15

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START


1. Masahiro Tanaka - at SEA, at OAK
Note: Even without his best stuff, he went 6 IP/1 ER in gem vs. OAK last week
2. Corey Kluber - at KC, at BOS
3. Hisashi Iwakuma - NYY, TEX
Note: Showing last year wasn't a fluke with each passing start
4. David Price - SEA, at HOU
Note: Don't be fooled by the 4.03 ERA, he's pitching brilliantly this year
5. Yu Darvish - MIA
6. Chris Sale - DET
Note: He's allowed 1 ER in 18 IP since returning from the DL
7. Felix Hernandez - TEX
8. Max Scherzer - at CWS
Note: He's been a bit wobbly of late, but nothing to get freaked out over
9. James Shields - at CWS
10. Jon Lester - CLE
Note: He's allowed 14 ER in his last 6 starts, but 7 came vs. TOR in 6.3 IP; he has a 1.91 ERA in the other 33 IP
11. Alex Cobb - at HOU
12. Anibal Sanchez - MIN
Note: Finally on track with 3 excellent efforts in a row in 7 scoreless against that beastly TOR offense
13. Dallas Keuchel - ARI
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 4 ER in any start; 1.36 ERA over his last 6 with a 6.2 K:BB ratio
14. Sonny Gray - NYY
15. Scott Kazmir - NYY
Note: Are the Ks returning? He has 18 in his last two starts spanning 15.3 IP
16. C.J. Wilson - at ATL
17. Yordano Ventura - CLE
18. Jose Quintana - KC
Note: Not a star, but very consistent
19. Collin McHugh - TB
Note: I'm buying the strikeouts; that curveball is pure filth
20. Jered Weaver - OAK
21. John Lackey - CLE
Note: Still seems to go relatively untrusted despite 269 great IP since returning from a missed 2012
22. Chris Archer - at HOU
23. Mark Buehrle - at BAL
Note: I'm stiiillll skeptical, but this is still a big jump from recent weeks
24. Garrett Richards - OAK, at ATL
25. Jesse Chavez - at LAA, NYY
26. Justin Verlander - at CWS, MIN
Note: Ugh, this is brutal, but can you really bench him? I can't
27. Hiroki Kuroda - at OAK
28. Trevor Bauer - at KC
Note: Not a must-start option yet, but noticeable improvements are encouraging
29. Tyler Skaggs - OAK
30. Drew Smyly - at CWS
Note: Nice rebound outing against BOS
31. Danny Duffy - at CWS
32. Rick Porcello - at CWS, MIN
Note: Loved the bounce-back against TOR after that 6 BB effort in OAK
33. John Danks - DET, KC
Note: 1.21 ERA in 22.3 IP over his last three
34. R.A. Dickey - MIN, at BAL
Note: His inconsistency makes his Cy Young season that much more impressive given how difficult it is to be consistent as a knuckleballer
35. Jason Vargas - NYY, at CWS
Note: Great since the 7 ER dud vs. CWS with a 1.77 ERA
36. Drew Pomeranz - at LAA
37. Roenis Elias - NYY
38. Phil Hughes - at TOR
Note: This is more because of TOR than it is because of his rough outing vs. HOU
39. David Phelps - at SEA
40. Marcus Stroman - MIN
41. Erik Bedard - STL
Note: Baseball's worst team vs. LHP since 2013
42. Chase Whitley - at SEA
Note: Finally topped 5 IP and looked very good doing so
43. Josh Tomlin - at BOS
Note: Needs to trim the HRs, but 6.0 K:BB ratio and 23.1% K rate are great
44. Matt Shoemaker - at ATL
Note: Matchup gives him a great shot to continue to miss plenty of bats
45. Jarred Cosart - at ARI, TB
Note: 2.96 ERA in last 8, but the skills call BS on that figure
46. Brad Peacock - at ARI, TB
Note: He's been solid since joining the rotation, possibly poised for a run
47. Drew Hutchison - at BAL
Note: He's been fantastic on the road including six scoreless in BAL earlier in April

SIT


48. Justin Masterson - at BOS
Note: Not ready to throw him back in just yet, but not cutting him either
49. Jake Odorizzi - STL
Note: Much better than a 5.31 ERA pitcher, but I'm sitting him unless Ks are a must
50. Brandon Workman - at BAL, CLE
Note: Two very tough matchups
51. Tommy Milone - at LAA
Note: One of the few road venues where you could try him out, but why risk it?
52. Nick Tepesch - at SEA
53. T.J. House - at TEX
54. Zach McAllister - at BOS
55. Jake Peavy - at BAL, CLE
56. J.A. Happ - MIN, at BAL
57. Bud Norris - BOS, TOR
58. Vidal Nuno - at KC, at OAK
59. Nick Martinez - CLE, at SEA
Note: 1.1 K:BB ratio says that 3.22 ERA is in deep trouble
60. Ubaldo Jimenez - TOR
61. Chris Young - NYY
62. Scott Feldman - ARI
63. Kyle Gibson - at DET
64. Colby Lewis - MIA
65. Rubby De La Rosa - at BAL
66. Wei-Yin Chen - BOS
67. Jeremy Guthrie - CLE
68. Samuel Deduno - at DET
69. Joe Saunders - at SEA
70. Hector Noesi - DET, KC
71. Ricky Nolasco - at TOR, at DET
72. Chris Tillman - BOS, TOR
73. Kevin Correia - at TOR
74. Andre Rienzo - DET
75. SEA Fifth Starter - TEX
Note: Brandon Maurer replacement unknown
76. BAL Fifth Starter - TOR
Note: Miguel Gonzalez replacement unknown

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

1. Madison Bumgarner - WAS, COL
Note: Has a 1.91 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his last 8 GS with a 10.6 K:BB ratio
2. Stephen Strasburg - at SF, at STL
Note: Can he even meet the expectations on him? He has 9 straight QS with 2.09 ERA and 68 K in 60.3 IP yet many are still acting as if he's underperforming
3. Doug Fister - at SF, at STL
4. Gerrit Cole - CHC, at MIA
Note: The Ks are back with 43 in his last 42.7 IP
5. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
Note: Responded to the ARI shellacking with 3 straight 9 K games
6. Cole Hamels - SD
Note: He's gone 7-plus in 6 straight: 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 45 Ks in 42.7 IP
7. Adam Wainwright - at TB
8. Johnny Cueto - LAD
9. Zack Greinke - at CIN
10. Michael Wacha - at TB
11. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at CIN
12. Mike Minor - at COL, LAA
Note: Tough slate against two strong offenses, but he's been great since getting roughed up by STL
13. Nathan Eovaldi - PIT
Note: He's ripped off a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 28 IP since the 4.3 IP/6 ER dud in SF
14. Zack Wheeler - SD
Note: He's on fire and gets the lowly the Padres to build on his hot streak
15. Jeff Samardzija - at PIT
Note: A 3 IP/8 ER massacre pushed his ERA to 2.54 telling you how well he's been pitching
16. Julio Teheran - at COL
Note: Playing it cautiously with him headed to Coors, but I wouldn't be surprised if he rolled the Rockies
17. Ian Kennedy - at PHI, at NYM
18. Ryan Vogelsong - WAS, COL
Note: Looking a lot like the 2011-12 version, but this pair won't be easy
19. Josh Beckett - at CIN, ARI
20. Gavin Floyd - at COL, LAA
Note: The results have been great, but he's averaging fewer than 6 IP/start
21. Mike Leake - LAD, at MIL
22. Dan Haren - at CIN, ARI
Note: Little worried that the back is an issue right now with 8 HR in his last 5 starts
23. Lance Lynn - WAS
Note: Despite 2 HR and 4 BB, he had a solid effort against MLB's hottest team in Toronto
24. Homer Bailey - at MIL
Note: Finally coming out of it with 3 straight QS? I say yes.
25. Bartolo Colon - SD
26. Jason Hammel - at PIT
27. Andrew Cashner - at PHI
Note: Returns Saturday vs. WAS
28. Tim Hudson - WAS
29. Jordan Zimmermann - at STL
Note: I'm still buying despite the recent hit parade
30. Aaron Harang - LAA
Note: Remove your bias and look at the filthy skills
31. Jon Niese - MIL
32. Matt Cain - WAS
33. Kyle Lohse - at NYM
Note: He'd been excellent prior to get smashed for 8 ER by PIT
34. Tanner Roark - at SF
35. Gio Gonzalez - at SF
Note: Playing it conservatively with Gio and Latos returning from injury
36. Mat Latos - at MIL
37. Travis Wood - at PIT, at PHI
Note: 3 disasters have inflated his ERA; skills say high-3.00s as opposed to his 5.04 ERA
38. Marco Estrada - at NYM, CIN
Note: Strong matchups, but he's been such a homer machine that I can't trust him to cash them in
39. A.J. Burnett - SD, CHC
Note: If he can't rebound with these two matchups, it's time to consider dumping him everywhere
40. Ervin Santana - at COL
41. Henderson Alvarez - PIT
Note: 21 straight scoreless IP
42. Matt Garza - CIN
43. Wily Peralta - at NYM
44. Tyson Ross - at PHI
Note: A lack of consistent command and control yields volatility
45. Brandon McCarthy - at HOU
46. Tony Cingrani - LAD
Note: The Dodgers are brutal against lefties
47. Charlie Morton - at MIA
48. Yovani Gallardo - CIN
49. Wade Miley - at HOU
50. Edwin Jackson - at PIT, at PHI
Note: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 2,614 times ... still shame on you, ya jerk
51. Francisco Liriano - CHC, at MIA
Note: Hasn't finished 6 in any of his last four, but I think this pair of matchups is worth trying out
52. Jaime Garcia - WAS
53. Kyle Kendrick - SD
Note: The matchup is too nice to pass on

SIT


54. Jake Arrieta - at PHI
55. Shelby Miller - WAS
56. Alfredo Simon - LAD
Note: Schedule should give him another shot to wrest the fifth spot from Cingrani as the Reds will use six starters this week if Latos is indeed ready
57. Randy Wolf - PIT
58. Jacob deGrom - MIL
59. Chase Anderson - at LAD
Note: I'm not buying his 3.32 ERA at all
60. Tim Lincecum - COL
61. Eddie Butler - ATL
Note: Keep an eye on the intriguing youngster
62. Daisuke Matsuzaka - MIL, SD
Note: Squandered a chance to build some confidence with his start at CHC
63. Tom Koehler - at TEX
64. Tim Stauffer - at NYM
65. Bronson Arroyo - HOU, at LAD
66. Josh Collmenter - HOU, at LAD
67. Edinson Volquez - CHC
68. Jhoulys Chacin - ATL
69. David Buchanan - CHC
70. Roberto Hernandez - CHC
71. Jorge de la Rosa - at SF
72. Jacob Turner - at TEX
73. Brandon Cumpton - CHC
74. Eric Stults - at NYM
75. Juan Nicasio - ATL, at SF
76. COL Fifth Starter - ATL, at SF
Note: Morales was removed for Butler, but then Lyles got hurt so maybe it's just Morales moving back in

MLB TOP 100

1. Madison Bumgarner - WAS, COL
Note: Has a 1.91 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his last 8 GS with a 10.6 K:BB ratio
2. Stephen Strasburg - at SF, at STL
Note: Can he even meet the expectations on him? He has 9 straight QS with 2.09 ERA and 68 K in 60.3 IP yet many are still acting as if he's underperforming
3. Masahiro Tanaka - at SEA, at OAK
Note: Even without his best stuff, he went 6 IP/1 ER in gem vs. OAK last week
4. Corey Kluber - at KC, at BOS
5. Hisashi Iwakuma - NYY, TEX
Note: Showing last year wasn't a fluke with each passing start
6. David Price - SEA, at HOU
Note: Don't be fooled by the 4.03 ERA, he's pitching brilliantly this year
7. Doug Fister - at SF, at STL
8. Gerrit Cole - CHC, at MIA
Note: The Ks are back with 43 in his last 42.7 IP
9. Clayton Kershaw - ARI
Note: Responded to the ARI shellacking with 3 straight 9 K games
10. Cole Hamels - SD
Note: He's gone 7-plus in 6 straight: 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 45 Ks in 42.7 IP
11. Yu Darvish - MIA
12. Chris Sale - DET
Note: He's allowed 1 ER in 18 IP since returning from the DL
13. Felix Hernandez - TEX
14. Adam Wainwright - at TB
15. Johnny Cueto - LAD
16. Zack Greinke - at CIN
17. Michael Wacha - at TB
18. Max Scherzer - at CWS
Note: He's been a bit wobbly of late, but nothing to get freaked out over
19. James Shields - at CWS
20. Jon Lester - CLE
Note: He's allowed 14 ER in his last 6 starts, but 7 came vs. TOR in 6.3 IP; he has a 1.91 ERA in the other 33 IP
21. Alex Cobb - at HOU
22. Hyun-Jin Ryu - at CIN
23. Anibal Sanchez - MIN
Note: Finally on track with 3 excellent efforts in a row in 7 scoreless against that beastly TOR offense
24. Dallas Keuchel - ARI
Note: Hasn't allowed more than 4 ER in any start this season; has a 1.36 ERA over his last 6 with a 6.2 K:BB ratio
25. Sonny Gray - NYY
26. Scott Kazmir - NYY
Note: Are the Ks returning? He has 18 in his last two starts spanning 15.3 IP
27. C.J. Wilson - at ATL
28. Mike Minor - at COL, LAA
Note: Tough slate against two strong offenses, but he's been great since getting roughed up by STL
29. Nathan Eovaldi - PIT
Note: He's ripped off a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 28 IP since the 4.3 IP/6 ER dud in SF
30. Zack Wheeler - SD
Note: He's on fire and gets the lowly the Padres to build on his hot streak
31. Jeff Samardzija - at PIT
Note: A 3 IP/8 ER massacre pushed his ERA to 2.54 telling you how well he's been pitching
32. Julio Teheran - at COL
Note: Playing it cautiously with him headed to Coors, but I wouldn't be surprised if he rolled the Rockies
33. Ian Kennedy - at PHI, at NYM
34. Ryan Vogelsong - WAS, COL
Note: Looking a lot like the 2011-12 version, but this pair won't be easy
35. Josh Beckett - at CIN, ARI
36. Yordano Ventura - CLE
37. Jose Quintana - KC
Note: Not a star, but very consistent
38. Collin McHugh - TB
Note: I'm buying the strikeouts; that curveball is pure filth
39. Jered Weaver - OAK
40. John Lackey - CLE
Note: Still seems to go relatively untrusted despite 269 great IP since returning from a missed 2012
41. Chris Archer - at HOU
42. Gavin Floyd - at COL, LAA
Note: The results have been great, but he's averaging fewer than 6 IP/start
43. Mike Leake - LAD, at MIL
44. Dan Haren - at CIN, ARI
Note: Little worried that the back is an issue right now with 8 HR in his last 5 starts
45. Lance Lynn - WAS
Note: Despite 2 HR and 4 BB, he had a solid effort against MLB's hottest team in Toronto
46. Homer Bailey - at MIL
Note: Finally coming out of it with 3 straight QS? I say yes.
47. Bartolo Colon - SD
48. Jason Hammel - at PIT
49. Andrew Cashner - at PHI
Note: Returns Saturday vs. WAS
50. Tim Hudson - WAS
51. Jordan Zimmermann - at STL
Note: I'm still buying despite the recent hit parade
52. Aaron Harang - LAA
Note: Remove your bias and look at the filthy skills
53. Jon Niese - MIL
54. Matt Cain - WAS
55. Mark Buehrle - at BAL
Note: I'm stiiillll skeptical, but this is still a big jump from recent weeks
56. Garrett Richards - OAK, at ATL
57. Jesse Chavez - at LAA, NYY
58. Justin Verlander - at CWS, MIN
Note: Ugh, this is brutal, but can you really bench him? I can't
59. Kyle Lohse - at NYM
Note: He'd been excellent prior to get smashed for 8 ER by PIT
60. Tanner Roark - at SF
61. Gio Gonzalez - at SF
Note: Playing it conservatively with Gio and Latos returning from injury
62. Mat Latos - at MIL
63. Travis Wood - at PIT, at PHI
Note: 3 disasters have inflated his ERA; skills say high-3.00s as opposed to his 5.04 ERA
64. Marco Estrada - at NYM, CIN
Note: Strong matchups, but he's been such a homer machine that I can't trust him to cash them in
65. A.J. Burnett - SD, CHC
Note: If he can't rebound with these two matchups, it's time to consider dumping him everywhere
66. Hiroki Kuroda - at OAK
67. Trevor Bauer - at KC
Note: Not a must-start option yet, but noticeable improvements are encouraging
68. Tyler Skaggs - OAK
69. Drew Smyly - at CWS
Note: Nice rebound outing against BOS
70. Danny Duffy - at CWS
71. Rick Porcello - at CWS, MIN
Note: Loved the bounce-back against TOR after that 6 BB effort in OAK
72. John Danks - DET, KC
Note: 1.21 ERA in 22.3 IP over his last three
73. R.A. Dickey - MIN, at BAL
Note: His inconsistency as a Jay makes his Cy Young season that much more impressive given how difficult it is to be consistent as a knuckleballer
74. Jason Vargas - NYY, at CWS
Note: Great since the 7 ER dud vs. CWS with a 1.77 ERA
75. Drew Pomeranz - at LAA
76. Ervin Santana - at COL
77. Henderson Alvarez - PIT
Note: 21 straight scoreless IP
78. Matt Garza - CIN
79. Wily Peralta - at NYM
80. Tyson Ross - at PHI
Note: A lack of consistent command and control yields volatility
81. Roenis Elias - NYY
82. Phil Hughes - at TOR
Note: This is more because of TOR than it is because of his rough outing vs. HOU
83. Brandon McCarthy - at HOU
84. Tony Cingrani - LAD
Note: The Dodgers are brutal against lefties
85. David Phelps - at SEA
86. Marcus Stroman - MIN
87. Charlie Morton - at MIA
88. Yovani Gallardo - CIN
89. Wade Miley - at HOU
90. Erik Bedard - STL
Note: Baseball's worst team vs. LHP since 2013
91. Chase Whitley - at SEA
Note: Finally topped 5 IP and looked very good doing so
92. Josh Tomlin - at BOS
Note: Needs to trim the HRs, but 6.0 K:BB ratio and 23.1% K rate are great
93. Matt Shoemaker - at ATL
Note: Matchup gives him a great shot to continue to miss plenty of bats
94. Jarred Cosart - at ARI, TB
Note: 2.96 ERA in last 8, but the skills call BS on that figure
95. Brad Peacock - at ARI, TB
Note: He's been solid since joining the rotation, possibly poised for a run
96. Drew Hutchison - at BAL
Note: He's been fantastic on the road including six scoreless in BAL earlier in April
97. Edwin Jackson - at PIT, at PHI
Note: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me 2,614 times ... still shame on you, ya jerk
98. Francisco Liriano - CHC, at MIA
Note: Hasn't finished 6 in any of his last four, but I think this pair of matchups is worth trying out
99. Jaime Garcia - WAS
100. Kyle Kendrick - SD
Note: The matchup is too nice to pass on