East Coast Offense: Who Should We Worry About?

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Out of curiosity I looked at the running back and receiver efficiency outliers from this year and compared it to what they did last season. For RBs, I used 4.5 yards per carry or more and 4.5 or fewer YPC (minimum 20 carries.) For receivers I used 9.0 or more yards per target or 7.0 or fewer YPT (minimum 20 targets.) My goal was to see which stat was more consistent, i.e., whether there was a greater likelihood for RB or WR efficiency collapses or breakouts. My hypothesis coming in was that WR is more skill based, so efficiency numbers are less likely to change drastically than those for RBs who are more situation dependent. Here are the results:

Looking at the data - and it's only 20 games - it seems running back efficiency, despite the larger sample of attempts, has been more volatile than WR efficiency. Some of that has to with WR tending to run similar routes year after year, but having an explanation only makes it more likely to be true, not less.

If that's the case, there's probably better reason to be nervous about Lacy, or even McCoy, than there is about Thomas and even Cooper (not that you're expecting much from Cooper anyway.) Also, while Jackson's and Fitzgerald's per-play numbers will certainly increase, both likely have low ceilings at this stage of their respective careers, barring 150-plus targets. Ditto for Garcon.

Receivers who made a big jump like Steve Smith and Sanders are a tougher call. Smith has been one of the most efficient receivers in the league before, but he's 35, and Sanders hasn't had a huge body of work and is now playing with Peyton Manning. It's easy to short both right now - regression is likely regardless - but the question is to what level? I'd expect Smith to finish with 8.5 YPT and Sanders about 8.8 or 9.0.

One thing I noticed while doing the research: Antone Smith led the league in YPC last year at 29.0 on five carries in 2013 and currently leads this year at 11.9 YPC on 10 carries. The Falcons might consider giving him the ball until his average gets below seven, I'd think.

Fix the Rules

There are three major issues here, all of which are damaging the on-field product:

(1) There are too many holding/illegal contact calls on both sides of the ball.

I don't even see why they bother to have punt returns or kickoffs anymore - just give the ball to the receiving team 10 yards back from where the inevitable penalty would have happened. Moreover, drives are taking forever because you'll have a hold called on a 1st and 10 running play, making it 1st and 20. Then the offense completes a three-yard pass, making it 2nd and 17. Then the offense runs a draw, making it 3rd and 15. On third down, the offense throws a five-yard incompletion, but illegal contact is called, and now the ball is exactly where it was at the start of the series, only 20 million people have wasted seven minutes of their lives. That equals 140 million minutes which is 266 years.

(2) Penalty calls must be challengable and reviewable.

On Thursday night, Niles Paul caught a pass from Kirk Cousins and was running with the ball when Giants safety Will Demps lowered his shoulder to make the hit. At the last second, Paul lowered his helmet, and Demps - who had already committed to his course of action - hit him in the head rather than the torso. This was obvious on replay to everyone except Phil Simms and Jim Nance who didn't bother to watch it, so compelling was their imaginary narrative of what had happened. The referees in calling the penalty said it was "an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver", but Paul had the ball and was running with it when Demps made contact. Take a look and decide for yourself.

(3) The catch rule is absurd.

It's insane that a running back can fly through the air and barely graze the pylon with the ball for a tenth of a second before fumbling it and landing out of bounds, and it's a TD, while a receiver can catch the ball with two feet down, but it's not a score until he "makes a football move." Question for whoever's responsible for this rule: "Why would a player make a football move once he's caught the ball in the end zone?" But that was the rationale for counting Rueben Randle's TD catch as an INT after the ball was jarred loose even though he landed on the ground with two feet and complete possession of the ball.

Here's what I propose: Make a catch a judgment call like pass interference where the refs call it when they see it, make all penalty calls challengable and reviewable and err on the side of not throwing the flag when it's close, especially when the penalty doesn't affect the play and especially if you didn't directly see the infraction - far too many times refs call fouls based on circumstantial evidence, e.g., if a player falls down or takes a big hit rather than on direct observation of something illegal.

Week 4 Observations

• Why is Bill Belichick punting on 4th-and-2 down 14 in plus territory? Why is Aaron Dobson a healthy scratch every week when the Patriots can't stretch the field? Tom Brady's averaging 5.8 YPA, and the Pats lost to the Dolphins and Chiefs and should have been tied by the Raiders in regulation in Week 3. Based on its track record, New England deserves the benefit of the doubt, but there's a lot of doubt.

•Jamaal Charles certainly looks like he's back, but Knile Davis also isn't going away. It won't hurt Charles so much as help the Chiefs overall. Alex Smith will dink and dunk his way to another 25-plus TDs and throw in some rushing yards, and there's upside for more in Andy Reid's offense with Charles back, Travis Kelce looking like a star and Dwayne Bowe making plays Monday night.

•Trey Burton of the Eagles blocked a punt that resulted in a TD, but he also botched the greatest punt in NFL history for no reason whatsoever. The ball landed on the one and kicked 90 degrees sideways, but Burton, whose foot was in the end zone touched it. Had no one been there, the 49ers would have had the ball on the 1.

•Nick Foles played a poor game, but don't get too concerned about him or the team's skill players. The fluky TDs kept them off the field, and the 49ers defense got a lot of rest.

•Jeremy Maclin made one of the best catches I've ever seen in a huge spot. He's emerged as the clear No. 1 there.

• It looks like the Colts are finally letting Andrew Luck sling it. Too bad I have zero shares of him.

• When you're irritable due to bounces not going your way (and losing a survivor entry on the Steelers' last minute collapse), it's especially tough to take Joe Buck's smooth, know-nothing banter. I doubt he even watches football when he's by himself.

•Charlie Whitehurst actually didn't look bad – some dropped passes, fumbles and untimely penalties did the Titans in – not that anyone cares.

• What's the deal with Ken Whisen-punt not playing Bishop Sankey from the outset? His "footwork"? As Jeff Erickson pointed out, this is the same genius who refused to play No. 13 overall pick, Michael Floyd, his rookie year.

•Antonio Brown went 7-131-2 and completed a 17-yard pass, but his day could have been much bigger. He dropped a perfectly thrown 50-yard bomb, and Ben Roethlisberger missed him by a couple yards on another deep ball after he'd gotten behind a defender (I think they were both on the same drive, so he couldn't have had both, but either way he'd have pushed 200 yards and three scores.)

•Keenan Allen again looked like the Chargers' No. 1 WR, but this annual early-season Eddie Royal nonsense is annoying. The truth is Philip Rivers is playing at such a high level he can turn anyone into a red-zone target, just like Peyton Manning did with Wes Welker and Aaron Rodgers does with Randall Cobb.

•Blake Bortles didn't do much in the second half, but overall he passed the eye test, particularly with his ability to throw on the move and make plays on the ground.

• You could make a case Jordy Nelson is the No. 1 overall player in an NFFC-style 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-FLEX PPR league. The case distinguishing Eddie Lacy from Trent Richardson is increasingly harder to make.

•Teddy Bridgewater looked great in his first start, both in the pocket and as a scrambler, but he might never have a better matchup than that defense at home in his entire career. He also got hurt late, so Christian Ponder might be starting the Thursday night game.

•Cordarrelle Patterson doesn't seem to be a big part of the Vikings game plan. Matt Asiata does – and he was competent enough – but Jerick McKinnon looks like a future star (he runs a 4.37 and looks like he's shot out of a cannon.)

• The Falcons are the poor man's Saints – great at home, bad on the road. I might have to auto-back/auto-fade them against the spread based on venue the same way I do with the Saints.

• I guess the optimal strategy this year was just to take the oldest player available. You'd have Peyton Manning, Fred Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Antonio Gates and Adam Vinatieri.

• I couldn't put my finger on what was so annoying about that new U-2 song until today: It's a soundtrack for a commercial. I mean it IS a commercial, but it's also a song, and it sounds like one of the fake songs (I think "jingle" is the word for it) you hear in commercials.

• How many backs would you rank ahead of DeMarco Murray going forward? Think the answer is zero.