On Target: Examining Yards Per Target

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Updated on November 26, 2014 10:36AM EST

This may come as a surprise to some of you, but you can actually get fantasy points for things other than touchdowns (note: heavy sarcasm). Most, or at least a lot, of the analysis in this year's On Target has centered on touchdowns. Touchdowns are relatively low-frequency events, but they provide fantasy points in bunches, and I think it's fairly reasonable that we focus on them. Without touchdowns, our fantasy teams will fall apart, and by getting as many of them in our lineups as possible, it's much easier to win championships. Yards, however, play a critical component in fantasy points (obviously). Opportunity isn't always easy to predict, especially with more tertiary players. Something that I haven't examined yet in the column this year is yards per target. Often, yards per target, as opposed to yards per reception, can really get at the heart of wide receiver (or tight end) efficiency.

Rather that simply examining what happens when a pass catcher actually secures the ball, there is extra information baked into yards per target. Catch percentage, effectiveness on different types of routes and involvement in the offense are pieces of information that can be found in yards per target. The following table is a sorted list of all players with 50-plus targets in 2014, descending from the leader in YPT. (Just for fun, I included TD per target, but the numbers are so miniscule that they are hard to analyze.)

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	YPT	YDS	TD/TRG	TD
DeSean Jackson	72	42	11.92	858	0.06	4
T.Y. Hilton	96	63	11.28	1083	0.04	4
Malcom Floyd	55	36	10.98	604	0.07	4
Randall Cobb	79	58	10.59	837	0.13	10
Kenny Stills	51	39	10.37	529	0.04	2
Odell Beckham	59	41	10.32	609	0.08	5
Emmanuel Sanders	105	76	10.28	1079	0.07	7
Mike Evans	82	49	10.26	841	0.1	8
Jordy Nelson	106	68	10.06	1066	0.08	9
Travis Kelce	54	41	10.04	542	0.07	4
DeAndre Hopkins	81	51	9.91	803	0.05	4
Golden Tate	106	72	9.88	1047	0.03	3
Marques Colston	63	38	9.81	618	0.03	2
A.J. Green	65	41	9.68	629	0.06	4
Demaryius Thomas	124	82	9.61	1192	0.07	9
Larry Fitzgerald	69	46	9.54	658	0.03	2
Taylor Gabriel	57	30	9.47	540	0.02	1
Antonio Brown	123	88	9.44	1161	0.07	9
Heath Miller	54	43	9.28	501	0.04	2
Delanie Walker	72	43	9.26	667	0.06	4
Steve Smith	90	53	9.08	817	0.06	5
Rob Gronkowski	90	58	9.02	812	0.1	9
Kenny Britt	53	27	9.00	477	0.06	3
Jeremy Maclin	109	63	8.99	980	0.08	9
Terrance Williams	50	28	8.88	444	0.12	6
Anquan Boldin	94	65	8.78	825	0.04	4
Torrey Smith	62	32	8.77	544	0.1	6
Eddie Royal	52	34	8.67	451	0.1	5
Greg Olsen	84	56	8.57	720	0.06	5
Dez Bryant	103	63	8.53	879	0.1	10
Brandon LaFell	79	48	8.53	674	0.06	5
Mohamed Sanu	86	49	8.36	719	0.06	5
Coby Fleener	56	31	8.34	467	0.07	4
Alshon Jeffery	94	58	8.33	783	0.05	5
Julio Jones	118	72	8.31	980	0.03	4
Jordan Matthews	77	50	8.25	635	0.08	6
Dwayne Bowe	67	44	8.22	551	0	0
Antonio Gates	60	40	8.18	491	0.15	9
Allen Hurns	60	31	8.13	488	0.08	5
Zach Ertz	57	34	8.07	460	0.04	2
Andrew Hawkins	87	50	7.98	694	0.02	2
Brandin Cooks	69	53	7.97	550	0.04	3
Julius Thomas	54	40	7.89	426	0.22	12
Kelvin Benjamin	98	52	7.84	768	0.08	8
Calvin Johnson	74	38	7.81	578	0.04	3
Miles Austin	64	41	7.73	495	0.03	2
Michael Floyd	59	26	7.69	454	0.07	4
Sammy Watkins	89	48	7.69	684	0.06	5
Martellus Bennett	82	57	7.66	628	0.06	5
Jimmy Graham	88	65	7.61	670	0.1	9
Jermaine Kearse	50	26	7.60	380	0.02	1
Greg Jennings	66	40	7.59	501	0.05	3
John Brown	70	37	7.56	529	0.07	5
Andre Holmes	63	32	7.52	474	0.06	4
Justin Hunter	64	27	7.5	480	0.05	3
Doug Baldwin	66	46	7.44	491	0.03	2
Roddy White	89	56	7.44	662	0.06	5
Pierre Garcon	68	46	7.32	498	0.04	3
Jason Witten	63	43	7.32	461	0.06	4
Jerricho Cotchery	58	32	7.31	424	0	0
Markus Wheaton	62	36	7.29	452	0.03	2
Larry Donnell	65	46	7.09	461	0.09	6
Le'Veon Bell	70	57	6.91	484	0.03	2
Michael Crabtree	83	48	6.83	567	0.05	4
Jarvis Landry	66	49	6.82	450	0.08	5
Julian Edelman	102	70	6.81	695	0.02	2
Mike Wallace	87	48	6.80	592	0.08	7
Brandon Marshall	91	52	6.79	618	0.09	8
Kendall Wright	74	44	6.77	501	0.05	4
Allen Robinson	81	48	6.77	548	0.02	2
Jared Cook	70	37	6.76	473	0.01	1
Eric Decker	76	47	6.75	513	0.05	4
Keenan Allen	95	61	6.75	641	0.02	2
Reggie Wayne	90	50	6.72	605	0.02	2
Matt Forte	89	72	6.72	598	0.03	3
Vincent Jackson	103	48	6.58	678	0.02	2
Owen Daniels	54	37	6.57	355	0.06	3
Andre Johnson	103	58	6.48	667	0.01	1
James Jones	82	54	6.45	529	0.05	4
Robert Woods	75	45	6.39	479	0.04	3
Riley Cooper	68	39	6.25	425	0.01	1
Andre Ellington	64	46	6.17	395	0.03	2
Fred Jackson	51	40	6.14	313	0.02	1
Charles Clay	58	39	5.97	346	0.03	2
Cecil Shorts	64	34	5.95	381	0.02	1
Rueben Randle	97	53	5.74	557	0.02	2
Cordarrelle Patterson	61	30	5.74	350	0.02	1
Shane Vereen	62	43	5.69	353	0.05	3
Jermaine Gresham	57	42	5.65	322	0.04	2
Mychal Rivera	60	38	5.57	334	0.05	3
Percy Harvin	58	40	5.33	309	0	0
Andre Roberts	57	28	5.16	294	0.04	2
Jeremy Kerley	60	31	5.05	303	0.02	1

Let's start with the good before the bad. DeSean Jackson is what he always has been: a lightly used wide receiver who has a good shot at a 30-point fantasy outting every week ... but also can go out and put up four points simply because he is only targeted downfield. Kenny Stills at fifth on this list should encourage everyone who put in a waiver claim for him after Brandin Cooks went down. While Cooks was mostly being used around the line of scrimmage and in possession situations, Stills has seemed to inherit a little bit of the old Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson role. If Stills can combine his downfield efficiency with the involvement in the offense that Cooks leaves behind, being a WR1 for the rest of the season is not out of the question. In fact, I would think that suggesting that Stills is anything worse than a WR2 is downright ridiculous. Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Travis Kelce are familiar names atop the yards per target list. We know these guys are great, so it's not surprising.

I'm not really interested in players who are doing well. For the most part, we know that players who rack up a lot of yards are efficient, and their efficiency means that their quarterback and their coach will continually go back to them. If it's working, NFL coaches are very, very likely to continue doing whatever it is. Inefficient players, on the other hand, are subject to the vagaries of matchup and game plan. Reuben Randle is one of the worst players in football in yards per target, and that shouldn't be particularly surprising. He fell under constant criticism last season for not knowing the playbook and running the wrong routes; for our purposes, Beckham is the only NYG receiver worth paying attention too.

Andre Ellington is primarily known an explosive player, someone who doesn't need a ton of touches to be fantasy viable. This season, he's seen more work than normal but it has had a dramatic impact on his effectiveness. There isn't a ton of actionable information here for this season, but it would suggest he might be a little overvalued next year because his composite numbers look pretty good. Keenan Allen at the bottom of the YPT table tells us that he is who we thought he was as a prospect, but not as a rookie. He's a good player, with sure hands, but he isn't explosive enough to ever really profile as a WR1. Probably the most surprising name for me was Mike Wallace so low. He's generally been an explosive player for his career and has had quite a season with Ryan Tannehill. I think this is probably more an anomaly than anything else, but I've never been high on Wallace's ability anyway.