NFL Barometer: Johnny Riser

RISING

Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE

It's a nearly universal rule that NFL head coaches love mediocre veteran players perceived as 'low risk,' especially when the alternative is a young, unapologetic new breed who hangs out with famous rappers, but Mike Pettine can't justify the Brian Hoyer arrangement any longer. The excuse for starting Hoyer is that he's 'steady,' a reliable player capable of managing the game in an efficient manner while avoiding turnovers. Unfortunately, none of that is true. In his last six games, Hoyer has three touchdowns compared to eight interceptions, giving him season totals of 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a lost fumble in 12 starts. He has as many turnovers as touchdowns, and he's completing just 56.2 percent of his passes. Hoyer was belatedly benched against Buffalo on Sunday after completing 18-of-30 passes for 192 yards and two interceptions, and Manziel wasted no time in demonstrating his superior talent, completing 5-of-9 passes for 63 yards and running for a 10-yard touchdown. Manziel lost a fumble that was overturned on a replay, but there's no reason for the Browns to turn back to Hoyer given that he's demonstrated equal turnover risk with no hope of Manziel's playmaking skills. If Manziel is named the starter for Sunday's game against Indianapolis, he would garner top-12 fantasy consideration at the quarterback position. His top-tier rushing skills give him a high fantasy-point floor, and the Colts just got torched by Colt McCoy for 392 yards and three touchdowns.

Tre Mason, RB, STL

Mason has had a big workload for over a month now, but stats weren't easy to come by facing off against top run defenses like San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona and Denver. Playing at home against the Raiders on Sunday, however, the pieces all fit perfectly for Mason, who blew up for 117 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries while adding three catches for 47 yards and another touchdown. Despite being active for only eight games in 2014, and starting just five, Mason boasts a strong total of 562 yards (4.6 YPC) and three touchdowns on the ground to go along with 112 yards and a touchdown through the air. That projects to 1,348 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage over 16 games, but even that projection is low with Mason only recently becoming the starter. He owns the St. Louis backfield.

Donte Moncrief, WR, IND

Moncrief is much, much better than Hakeem Nicks. It's been obvious for more than a while now, but the Colts are finally catching on, too. Moncrief saw four targets for the second week in a row Sunday, and he badly burned Washington for 134 yards and two touchdowns on three catches. That leaves Moncrief with a season-long total of 24 catches for 390 yards and three touchdowns on 33 targets. Reggie Wayne's presence figures to make Moncrief a hit-or-miss fantasy consideration for the rest of the current campaign, but Moncrief's 2015 prospects are extremely bright. He is also better than Wayne right now, by the way.

Davante Adams, WR, GB

Like Moncrief, Adams is more of a 2015 target than a fixture in standard league starting lineups the rest of the way, but the rookie is clearly picking up steam and has safely established himself as the No. 3 receiver in the Packers' offense. He's now up to 34 catches for 417 yards and three touchdowns on 54 targets. Those numbers aren't particularly good, but Adams seems to be improving and his prominence in an offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm should eventually make him productive by default. If Randall Cobb leaves Green Bay this offseason via free agency, Adams' value will obviously go through the roof.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

DeAngelo Williams fractured a bone in his right hand against Minnesota on Sunday, and he figures to miss or be significantly limited in this week's game against New Orleans. If Williams is unable to suit up, Stewart ought to inherit most or all of his touches, which would make him a promising fantasy consideration against a New Orleans defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry and more than a touchdown per game on the ground. Coming off a game where he ran for 85 yards on 12 carries, Stewart is looking surprisingly slick at the moment.

Marion Grice, RB, ARZ

Andre Ellington left Sunday's game against Atlanta with a hip pointer, forcing the Cardinals to turn to Grice as the lead back. If Ellington is forced to miss this week's game against Kansas City, Grice would have to be the favorite to serve as Arizona's top running back, especially outside of short-yardage situations. Grice lacks both size and athleticism, so it wasn't surprising to see him total a weak 16 yards on five carries Sunday, but he reminded everyone of his standout pass-catching ability at the same time, making three catches for 24 yards. Just remember that although Grice might have some by-default fantasy utility this week in the event that Ellington sits, he probably has both a low ceiling and floor due to his low talent level and the presence of runners like Stepfan Taylor and Michael Bush. It's PPR formats where Grice is likely to be most useful.

FALLING

Andre Ellington, RB, ARZ

Ellington's hip pointer from Sunday isn't considered a significant injury, but he's still questionable at the moment for this week's game against Kansas City, and the injury is more importantly a reminder of Ellington's long history of durability issues. Ellington's injury troubles at Clemson were the only reason he fell so far in last year's draft, as his talent belonged more in the second round than it did in the sixth. With his foot and hip issues both threatening to linger, Ellington's short-term outlook is rather bleak at the moment.

Justin Hunter, WR, TEN

Hunter suffered a lacerated spleen against the Texans on Sunday, and was placed on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday. Hunter was one of the league's most disappointing players in 2014, following up a promising offseason and preseason with just 28 catches for 498 yards and three touchdowns on 67 targets. The fast, 6-foot-4 target confirmed his big-play ability at various points in the year, but his catch rate of 41.8 percent was horrendous to the point that his 2014 struggles can't merely be attributed to his youth and lack of experience. Although his combination of size and athleticism should allow him to become an acceptable NFL starter at some point, particularly once he benefits from improved quarterback play and more experience, Hunter's long-term prospects are significantly dimmer now than they were in August.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL

Romo and the Cowboys' coaches seem insistent that his back injury isn't affecting him, but the tape from the Thanksgiving home blowout loss against Philadelphia convincingly argues otherwise. Romo was under a lot of pressure in the collapse, taking four sacks on just 34 dropbacks. Toward the end of the game, Romo struggled to generate high school-level velocity on his throws, relying on a hideously high trajectory to move the ball downfield. Unfortunately, the lobs sailed so long that defenders tracked down the throws with casual ease. Although Romo's availability for Thursday's otherwise appealing matchup with Chicago doesn't seem to be in question, he clearly was not himself last week, and there's no way to know from afar whether the back injury will still be an issue in this week's game.

Coby Fleener, TE, IND

Fleener has been a fantasy beast the last three weeks, catching 13 of 18 targets for 299 and two touchdowns. It's probably not the most sustainable production, however, because he accumulated those numbers while superior fellow tight end Dwayne Allen missed time with an ankle issue. Allen is expected to return this week against Cleveland, however, so it's hard to see Fleener perfectly maintaining his prominence. Before Allen's injury, Fleener had 22 catches for 295 yards and four touchdowns in nine games.