Mound Musings: Take the Money and Run

One of the things I get asked most often is my opinion of a pitcher who has come out and baffled everyone over his first few starts of the season. In most cases it's a younger pitcher who had a strong spring, made the major league rotation, and then put up incredible numbers over his first few starts. Somewhat less frequently, it can be a seasoned veteran who hasn't been a fantasy asset for quite a long time, maybe he has never generated much fantasy interest. A few of these early surprises will keep it up, but most will founder, often just after a fantasy owner takes the plunge. Let's take a look at why some of these guys just don't make it happen over the long haul ...

You look so good one day, and then you turn into a troll. Why?

Almost every pitcher goes through an occasional stretch of successful outings, even the ones who aren't likely to make a habit of it. As mentioned above, the most tempting to fantasy owners are those taking the initial plunge into pitching at the highest level of the game. Obviously, that temptation intensifies if the pitcher in question has been the subject of predictions of stardom – someday.

Beyond those supposedly rising stars, there are a couple of other categories to consider including younger veterans who have never really enjoyed much success even though they appear to be capable of better than they have displayed so far, and those veterans who really aren't very good, have proven that fact, but for whatever reason, hit a stretch where, like hitters, every batted ball seems to be directed at a fielder or every pitch is guessed to be something altogether different, resulting in a swinging miss.

I'm going to focus on the first two scenarios – young guys just arriving, and young veterans who might or might not be putting everything together. That third category is actually not so alluring in most leagues. Third segment arms would include guys like Aaron Harang or maybe Scott Feldman. I'm in a very deep 15-team mixed league where there is virtually nothing available on the waiver wire, but they are there.

I will start by covering some arms who haven't convinced me they will continue to dazzle opposing hitters, but who might be tempting fantasy owners to take the leap. If you own one of these guys, the "sell high" window may be wide open, but it could close abruptly if you don't start working the phones right away. Yes, occasionally one of the early season pretenders will make it last, but it's rare enough for me to take my chances and deal.

Here are my nominees for the Rotation of Imminent Catastrophe:

• Dallas Keuchel (Astros) – I'll put Keuchel right at the top of this list so a lot of people can scratch their heads and wonder what I'm thinking. At this writing he is leading the American League in ERA (0.80), WHIP (0.76) and innings pitched (45) so he is giving everyone a real reason to believe – just not me so much. A catastrophe is probably not an appropriate description of his possible season going forward, but as I watch him pitch I don't see someone who is going to dominate games. I just watched him strike out seven consecutive Rangers but he is not a strikeout pitcher. He's a groundball pitcher with good secondary stuff, but a mediocre fastball in the 88-90mph range. Sell while his stock is at a premium.
• Anthony DeSclafani (Reds) – His numbers look pretty good. He has a 2.03 ERA and a strong 0.94 WHIP, and he has even provided 26 strikeouts in 31 innings. Don't get too excited. He allowed four unearned runs in a recent start, and his WHIP is on the rise as opposing hitters have been laying off his out of the zone offerings. DeSclafani has a good assortment of pitches, but none of them stand out as plus offerings, and his BABIP is an unsustainable .196 so the writing is on the wall. On the plus side he does generally keep the ball in the park, but I think his walk rate and batting average against will become more problematic as the season wears on. It's difficult to maintain solid numbers with mediocre stuff and marginal command of that stuff.
• Dan Haren (Marlins) – A few years ago Haren was one of the most consistent starting pitchers out there, but time and mileage have taken their toll. Most importantly, he has chronic back problems which can escalate at any time. He has even suggested retirement might be in his future before long, albeit that talk was more about not wanting to leave the west coast last off-season. So far this season he has logged 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP, but that isn't going to last. His low 90's fastball is now a mid-80's fastball, and he too has a BABIP that cannot be maintained (.159). Maybe there are owners in your league who like to reminisce about the good old days? Open trade talks.
• Nick Martinez (Rangers) – A 0.84 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over five starts can attract interest when injuries and ineffectiveness haunt your rotation, but adding Martinez is probably not the answer. The Rangers were forced to give him a regular turn last season with injuries that are even worse this year, but he is better suited to a swingman or long relief role where his exposure is more limited. He has an assortment of pitches, including a high 80's fastball that is actually down a couple of ticks from last season, and his command is typically spotty. That with a tendency to find bats rather than miss them – he has just 13 punchouts over 30 2015 innings – will lead to significant adjustment in his peripherals, and it will likely be sooner rather than later.
• Josh Collmenter (Diamondbacks) – The Diamondbacks need him in the rotation, but he's another probably better suited to less exposure. Collmenter gets by with a motion that is more difficult for hitters to pick up. He throws over the top, and that is a release point batters don't see very often. On the plus side he throws strikes, but he can be very hittable when they get comfortable with where the ball is coming from. Because he limits base runners with fewer walks, he can survive with very marginal stuff, but with an 84-85 mph fastball he isn't going to blow anything past the hitter, and he has a very small margin for error. If he misses up and in the middle of the plate, its batting practice revisited. Couple that with a low strikeout rate and you have a fringy starter at best.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have been thrilled with the performance of Brandon Morrow so far this year, and then the bell tolls. He was placed on the disabled list earlier this week with some inflammation in his shoulder. The reports hint this only a very minor problem, so I am hopeful, but shoulder woes always make me nervous.
• A blue chipper, Carlos Rodon, is scheduled to start this weekend for the White Sox who will have to adjust their rotation while Jeff Samardzija and Chris Sale serve brief suspensions. I'm not totally convinced he is ready, but he has so much ceiling you almost have to take a chance. The rotation spot may not last right now, but Hector Noesi can't hold him off very long.
• I am becoming ever more bullish on the Pirates' Gerritt Cole. Yes, he came with an impeccable pedigree, but like many young guys he wasn't clicking on all cylinders when he first arrived. He's a pitcher now, he has the repertoire to be right at the top of a rotation, and he can do it long term.
• I guess I spoke too soon last week when I said Tampa Bay was welcoming back some of their key rotation arms. Smyly and Colome are back, but the headliner, Alex Cobb, now has a partial tear in his UCL. They say he will try to pitch through it, but Tommy John surgery will indefinitely be just a pitch away.
• There was a time when Zack Greinke might have made the Rotation of Imminent Catastrophe, but he seems to have found consistency of late. Once a guy has frustrated me for a period of time I have a hard time believing, so I'm not ready to jump squarely on the Greinke bandwagon, but I'll keep watching.
• If you are in a deep league and looking for an arm that might help as a fill in for an injured pitcher or as a match-up possibility, I am going to suggest taking a shot with Toronto's Marco Estrada. He's a flyball pitcher which isn't ideal in the Rogers Centre, but if he locates well, he has the arsenal to make it work. His first start wasn't pretty, but I still saw things I found encouraging.

Endgame Odyssey:

It didn't take long for LaTroy Hawkins to step aside so Adam Ottavino could assume the closer's role in Colorado, but it didn't last long. Ottavino is facing Tommy John surgery and John Axford has, at least for now, claimed the gig. The Rockies are likely looking nervously for alternatives, and you probably should be too. The Dodgers say they may not insert Kenley Jansen back into the closer's role immediately. I suppose that's possible, but don't expect it to last long. He'll be closing very soon. The Blue Jays have resisted moving Aaron Sanchez to the pen, but I still think it could happen if they can find someone to fill his rotation spot. Brett Cecil holds the reins right now, and Miguel Castro was sent down for some much needed experience, but I am not sure this will be permanently settled any time soon. I have had the opportunity to watch Texas' Neftali Feliz a couple more times, and I remain generally unimpressed. Kyuji Fujikawa is still strengthening his sea legs at Triple-A, but once he shakes off the rust, I think he might (emphasis on might) get a shot to work himself into end game duties with the Rangers. Sean Doolittle is now throwing at 100% so a rehab stint should be coming up soon, and barring any setbacks, he should be back in the Oakland closer's role. The Royals welcome back Greg Holland so their already loaded bullpen gets better again. Wade Davis will return to his set-up role and opponents are looking at a shorter game where they need to score before the pen gets involved.